Qassändra

This idea that there is any one single decision or sentence that could switch it from a Hillary landslide to a Trump landslide is...dubious.

Are you kidding? The VP slot is absolutely never so influential that it can overcome a drag as massive as having an open racist and misogynist at the top of the ticket. Hispanic, black and female voters aren't going to be fooled by a token gesture like that.

Trump-Jenner would be the most OMG thing ever.

Semi-Final One 01 Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away 02 Greece: Argo - Utopian Land 03 Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars 04 Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer 05 Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 06 The Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down 07 Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 08 San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know 09 Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 10 Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand 11 Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego 12 Austria: ZOË - Loin d'ici 13 Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann - Play 14 Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle 15 Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing 16 Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling 17 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je 18 Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water Semi-Final Two 01 Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat 02 Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 03 Switzerland: Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind 04 Israel: Hovi Star - Made Of Stars 05 Belarus: IVAN - Help You Fly 06 Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 07 Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 08 Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona 09 Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 10 Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 11 Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue And Red 12 Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 13 Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 14 Ukraine: Jamala - 1944 15 Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker 16 Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 17 Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 18 Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure

___ QUEEN! 01 / 01 / Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 02 / 05 / Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling 03 / 02 / Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 04 / 03 / Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle 05 / 07 / Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 06 / 11 / Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen ft. Ana Rucner & Jala - Ljubav je 07 / 06 / Greece: Argo - Utopian Land 08 / 04 / Austria: Zoë - Loin d'ici ___ Incredible 09 / 09 / Ukraine: Jamala - 1944 10 / 15 / Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker 11 / 13 / Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand ___ V good 12 / 21 / Belarus: Ivan - Help You Fly 13 / 08 / Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat 14 / 23 / France: Amir - J'ai cherché 15 / 10 / Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars 16 / 14 / Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 17 / 12 / Italy: Francesca Michelin - No Degree Of Separation 18 / 18 / Germany: Jamie-Lee - Ghost ___ Enjoyable 19 / 17 / Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water 20 / 16 / Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 21 / 32 / Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego 22 / 33 / Spain: Barei - Say Yay! 23 / 20 / San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know 24 / 41 / Estonia: Jüri Pootsman - Play 25 / 19 / Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night ___ Couldn't care less, loves 26 / 25 / Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona 27 / 24 / Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down 28 / 22 / Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue & Red 29 / 26 / Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure 30 / 28 / Israel: Hovi Star - Made of Stars 31 / 27 / Switzerland: Rykka - The Last of our Kind 32 / 30 / Sweden: Frans - If I Were Sorry 33 / 31 / Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away 34 / 29 / Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 35 / 35 / Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer 36 / 34 / Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 37 / 36 / Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 38 / 38 / United Kingdom: Joe & Jake - You're Not Alone ___ Fuck off love 39 / 42 / Georgia: Nika Kocharov & Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 40 / 37 / Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 41 / 40 / Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 42 / 43 / Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing

I'll rephrase. They're at a point where the scandals, splits, and general treatment the Conservatives are getting from the media are of a similar magnitude to their lowest point in the 2010-2015 government (between the 2012 Budget to the January 2013 pledge for an EU referendum). It's at the depths of its popularity over the last six years and objectively speaking is a fairly unpopular government. It is unprecedented for a government which is at its most unpopular to that point* to be barely losing seats. You're correct in that history suggests they're likely to go downhill from this point, but I think how the Tories react to the result of the EU referendum could make the difference. If they patch up and agree to a truce then I think it's likely they'll be more popular this time next year than they are now.

You're right - I'd have been furious that they were barely mentioned. If I were a Conservative spin doctor, that is, considering the norm is for an unpopular government to lose swathes of council seats. For all some allege that the BBC is biased towards the Conservatives, if they actually were they could've spent the whole evening trumpeting that a government at the depths of its popularity barely lost anything at all. Unprecedented when you consider governments that lose negligible numbers of seats in local elections tend to be at the height of their popularity.

'That Florence Nightingale bird's talking a load of bollocks. You can get a pie chart to show anything these days.'

The claim that 'stats are meaningless' just because you can field misleading ones is so astoundingly stupid that I'm shocked someone clearly as intelligent as yourself actually just said it. That's Britain First/UKIP/Russell Brand levels of analysis. You may as well write off the entire concept of evidence-based analysis if all stats are equal.

OH, I'd thought he'd died by then, but it was the week after. My point in any case was more that 800 seats lost is an appalling result for a government whatever the circumstances, regardless of how much worse following elections were for them. I agree that the IDS comparison probably fits best out of anything if we're to compare 2016 with 2011 (though that was still a gain of over 200 councillors). I'm just surprised you don't see an *IDS comparison* as an (electoral) issue whatsoever.

Said 5 year cycle has, if anything, been the norm for a while now - it's only 2001 and 2005 that were four years after! Labour saw huge gains in council seats between 1987 and 1997. 1993 was relatively better for the Tories than the rest of the elections that cycle, but it ignores that Labour had a less popular (though still popular) leader than the one they had for the remaining elections, and it ignores that it was still absolutely diabolical by any absolute standard for the Tories. Losing just thirty council seats is the kind of result any government would snatch your arm off for, even a year in. By the same token, losing seats at *any* point of the cycle at all is a bad result for any opposition.

Dear me.

Because the norm is for governments to lose council seats! The reason the focus is on Labour is because gaining council seats in opposition is a prerequisite for a party to be headed back to government, and even then it isn't a guarantee - take Kinnock and Hague and IDS Howard who all made gains in council seats and yet it still wasn't enough. Yet we've seen time and time again governments lose substantial amounts of council seats and yet still go on to win the next general. It's utterly remarkable that an unpopular government is at a point where they're only losing negligible numbers of seats - just as it's utterly remarkable that an opposition is losing seats at all.

I think you're possibly comparing apples with pears in terms of measurement - on the metric you're basing this year on (I presume raw vote from all the councils voting), Labour beat the Tories by 2 percent in 2011. I think you're referring to the estimated national vote share for 2011 which they'll have projected from the results. I don't think they'll have worked out for this year yet until all the council results are in. Nonetheless, since 2012 Labour are down 7 points and the Conservatives are down 1. We're at a point of unpopularity for the government on a par with 2012, not 2011, and Labour are still not able to capitalise on that. It's putting a lot of hope on to think things would get more favourable a year down the line after the divisive EU referendum's out of the way.

I'm not sure. Unimaginable it may be, but I really doubt Ed Miliband would have been losing council seats against a government in crisis, as John McDonnell so rightly diagnoses them.

It doesn't make a great deal of sense for the SNP to go into coalition when they can just run it as a minority. They have an easy argument if they ever get defeated in a vote.

Add together all Prince's digital sales from this week and last week (which was just a half day's worth of sales), and is there any chance Purple Rain would've gone to number one?

Seems a fairly big 'such as', given how much of the budget for a fairer Scotland was predicated on that one resource. The No campaign was correct that that wouldn't cover the costs, and correct on the economic havoc that would currently be being wreaked on an independent Scotland. By much the same token, the Remain campaign really aren't scaremongering on how many jobs would be at risk if we left the EU. It just isn't in the interests of companies to keep their European headquarters in a non-EU country - hence, it's not really scaremongering to say those jobs absolutely are at risk. Arguing that the status quo isn't worth losing isn't a negative.

Despite the surname, I don't think Zac Goldsmith is Jewish. In any case, despicable though his campaign has been, I don't think that *quite* gets Labour off the hook for the last week.

Okay, so why exactly are you in favour of independence again? Oil money isn't going to pay for a fairer Scotland anymore, if it was ever going to. Higher taxes are clearly out, judging from this post. Forgive me if I'm struggling a little on the details, but...it almost sounds here like the main justification for independence is a nationalist one based on, ahem, 'neoliberal' economic policies, rather than a socialist one. And yes, this is exactly why the SNP are winning. Scottish Labour's platform for this election is literally following all of the implications given for what the point of independence was and what the point of getting rid of Labour last year was. Red Tories? Here, have a socialist economic and fiscal policy. Fairer Scotland? Here, use the levers Scotland has to raise more money and spend more on the least well-off. Oh wait, everyone wanted centrism and tax freezes and just a little bit of increased spending all along? Wasn't that why everyone called New Labour Red Tories who did nothing for Scotland? Which is the entire point of the Scottish Labour campaign. Yes, they're going to get thrashed tomorrow. That's going to prove the point: what's the case for Scotland being so different from the rest of the UK (and ergo independence being justified) if they only want the rhetoric of a left-wing government and not the actions of one? Solely a nationalist one. And at the same time, the case for New Labour 'betraying' Scotland in any real policy sense becomes nonsense too. And by the process of elimination, we get the beginnings of a roadmap to recovery.

Every single poll conducted matching up Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has found her in the lead, typically by around ten points - with the exception of one, conducted by Rasmussen, who are the only pollsters who find them even close. Rasmussen were also the only pollsters who consistently had Romney beating Obama in 2012. Do the maths. Also, starting the general several months early didn't really help John McCain in 2008. Ultimately, if your message is unappealing to people, it doesn't matter how much time or money you've got to give it. Given a majority of Americans view Trump very unfavourably and two-thirds view him unfavourably, it's safe to say they don't like what he's selling. Bernie won't run as an independent because he knows it would only let the Republican win. He has said as much every single time he's been asked. There's no reason to think he would change his mind when he is on the record saying it would be suicidal for him to campaign as an independent.

Well, if they wanted anything done about cuts in Scotland (i.e. increased tax and spending to avoid them), then yes, there's a lot they'd have to gain from voting Labour rather than voting SNP (I can't speak for the Greens but I imagine they likely have tax increases in their manifesto).

OMG (I was thinking more 'Brazen things the SNP are doing' but I suppose this'll manage.)

And given how much of it turned out to be true, what does that say about disliking 'negative' campaigning for the sake of it?

Petitioning for the thread title to be changed to something slightly less conceited, in line with all of the other party topics.