Qassändra

BORIS IS 24?!

___ QUEEN! 01 / Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 02 / Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 03 / Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle 04 / Austria: Zoë - Loin d'ici 05 / Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling 06 / Greece: Argo - Utopian Land ___ Incredible 07 / Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 08 / Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat 09 / Ukraine: Jamala - 1944 10 / Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars ___ V good 11 / Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen ft. Ana Rucner & Jala - Ljubav je 12 / Italy: Francesca Michelin - No Degree Of Separation 13 / Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand 14 / Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 15 / Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker ___ Enjoyable 16 / Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 17 / Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water 18 / Germany: Jamie-Lee - Ghost 19 / Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 20 / San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know 21 / Belarus: Ivan - Help You Fly ___ Couldn't care less, loves 22 / Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue & Red 23 / France: Amir - J'ai cherché 24 / Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down 25 / Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona 26 / Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure 27 / Switzerland: Rykka - The Last of our Kind 28 / Israel: Hovi Star - Made of Stars 29 / Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 30 / Sweden: Frans - If I Were Sorry 31 / Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away 32 / Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego 33 / Spain: Barei - Say Yay! 34 / Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 35 / Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer 36 / Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 37 / Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 38 / United Kingdom: Joe & Jake - You're Not Alone ___ Fuck off love 39 / Romania: Ovidiu Anton - Moment Of Silence 40 / Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 41 / Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann - Play 42 / Georgia: Nika Kocharov & Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 43 / Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing

Debunked in that link I posted right there in that post, that showed that the idea that Bernie wins all the 'live votes' is a total lie? 'She can't win using superdelegates' - uh, why do you think they exist? Not that she'll need the superdelegates to win. You screech 'momentum' repeatedly, but every single big potential game-changer win Bernie has had has been followed by a crushing Clinton win (New Hampshire followed by a crushing in Nevada; Michigan followed by a crushing in Ohio and Florida...). Momentum is meaningless if, uh, it isn't actually translating into consistent wins bigger than he needed otherwise. He can win caucuses in small states all he likes. Doesn't stop that Hillary only needs 670 more delegates from 21 states.

This all still stands. And that Seth Abramson bullshit has been so roundly debunked I'm surprised you're citing it. 'Sanders has won all live voting states!' is a. the equivalent of UKIP whinging at every lost by-election that they were robbed by postal votes, and b. not even true! Not only has Bernie not won every live vote - Hillary's won *more* live voting states than Sanders has! https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix...c-primary-race/

Ruth Davidson would be an immediate KO for Labour, regardless of whether we got our act together or not. She'd complete the modernisation project in one fell swoop.

Probably about time we had a running thread for this given the first proper takedown attempts are happening now. An absolutely brutal evisceration of Boris by former Tory MP Matthew Parris in The Times today. What few supporters he has in the Commons must be having second thoughts. http://i.imgur.com/eSTXLEm.jpg With Osborne potentially fatally wounded by IDS, and skeletons like these lurking for Boris, it's interesting to think who else may be in the final two chosen by MPs. I wouldn't rule out a total left-field candidate at this point.

Uh, no. There was a one point lead in one poll. The Tories have been ahead of Labour in all the others since.

I can see Barei failing utterly miserably and coming bottom three. It's a genre not well suited to the Eurovision stage, let alone with long instrumental breaks with nothing to fill them other than MINCING ABOUT, and that second verse really is DIABOLICALLY ENDLESS. It isn't a tight pop song at all, but it's not trying to be anything other than a pop song. A song you might listen to at home or on the radio, but one that I think will go very, very badly on the night.

Sweden are winning by a mile (and I have £30 on said outcome, as any self-respecting definitive prediction ought to - LOOKING AT YOU MICHAEL).

This is my favourite entry of the year. The production is so MOREISH

I hadn't even seen Ryan's when I did mine! HOPEFULLY some of these pairings (especially in SF2) will be common sense enough to actually make the cut

I'd like: I 01 San Marino: Serhat - I Didn't Know 02 The Netherlands: Douwe Bob - Slow Down 03 Finland: Sandhja - Sing It Away 04 Croatia: Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 05 Greece: Argo - Utopian Land 06 Moldova: Lidia Isac - Falling Stars 07 Hungary: Freddie - Pioneer 08 Armenia: Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 09 Russia: Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 10 Cyprus: Minus One - Alter Ego 11 Austria: ZOË - Loin d'ici 12 Estonia: Jüri Pootsmann - Play 13 Azerbaijan: Samra - Miracle 14 Montenegro: Highway - The Real Thing 15 Czech Republic: Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand 16 Malta: Ira Losco - Walk On Water 17 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner & Jala - Ljubav je 18 Iceland: Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling II 01 Lithuania: Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 02 Switzerland: Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind 03 Poland: Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 04 Belarus: IVAN - Help You Fly 05 Serbia: Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 06 Latvia: Justs - Heartbeat 07 Australia: Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 08 Ireland: Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 09 Israel: Hovi Star - Made Of Stars 10 Macedonia: Kaliopi - Dona 11 Belgium: Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure 12 Georgia: Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 13 Albania: Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 14 Romania: Ovidiu Anton - Moment Of Silence 15 Slovenia: ManuElla - Blue And Red 16 Denmark: Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 17 Ukraine: Jamala - 1944 18 Bulgaria: Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 19 Norway: Agnete - Icebreaker

I used to be all in favour of language freedom, but I think it's really doing a lot to kill off variety in the contest, particularly now pretty much EVERYONE is doing English. I don't think we should go back to the old system of compulsory native languages, as that gives an absurd advantage to UK/Ireland/Malta, but I do think there should be some sort of provision wherein once every two or three years a country should have to enter something in its native language.

How the hell is Sweden so far behind Russia at this point? I might shove another £20 on at those odds.

Hillary only needs 702 delegates at this point to win. There are 2,147 left. She would need to be getting less than a third in *every state* to lose at this point. There are 22 states left. She will get about half that amount in New York and California alone (247 and 475 delegates respectively). So essentially, she needs 350 delegates from the other 20 states (1,093 delegates) and the ~250 remaining superdelegates (95% of whom so far have gone to Hillary - even a fifty fifty split on the remaining superdelegates would be a miraculous achievement for Bernie) Unless you're expecting her to be getting 10% in New Jersey, I'm not really sure at this point how anybody who can count thinks Bernie winning from this stage is a possibility.

...then he'll still be behind by about 100-200 delegates. And that's a massive 'if' anyway.

The difference is certainly not bloody paper thin. I couldn't care less about immigration figures in and of themselves (though I do care about ameliorating the knock-on effects of high immigration figures). I don't consider the aim of reducing the deficit to be to create a smaller state for the least well-off and lower taxes for the most well-off. I consider the aim of reducing the deficit to be to make it possible to actually borrow for a proper stimulus at the next recession rather than leave us - and the least able to weather a recession - caught short when it happens again. My impulse in the event of more cash is not to shove it to Mr and Mrs 3 cars of Epsom - or Mr and Ms doing a fine job of paying off their tuition fees on a £30k salary of Epsom for that matter. I'm pro-market to the extent that literally every prosperous nation on earth with low poverty rates is pro-market. There is no other practical option that doesn't leave the least well-off starving in the streets, queueing for hours, or being sent care packages of toilet paper and batteries from relatives abroad. I am in favour of a market economy in the sense that every mainstream left-wing party in the developed world for the last fifty years has been in favour of a market economy, because there are many different types of market economy. I'm in favour of one that redistributes the proceeds to ensure a basic living standard for all and as level a playing field as possible for all. Moderate Conservatives are less fussed on the former and more blind to slants for the latter. It's also worth nothing that, yes, we broadly try to attract the same voter because that voter is the type that decides elections. I even fell for Ed Miliband's prospectus that the realignment of former Lib Dems meant a victory that tried to bypass that voter was possible. It was very, very, very, very, very resoundingly proved wrong.

Would that be the Tim Montgomerie who just left the Conservatives on the basis that immigration and the deficit haven't come down quickly enough and who considers the universal credit a 'significant achievement'? Yes, no difference at all!

I hope it gets NUL POINTS for FULL EFFECT *.*

The switch to the disco version CONFIRMED! *o*

TRAITOR!

Killer Girl sounds like a CULT INDUCTION sped up (and in many ways it WAS *.*) I APPROVE Actually now I listen everything from Weight of the World through Youniverse is HIGHLY MOREISH

Huzzah, a rich pathological liar and racist gets to control everything!

If it were the case that corporations just got everything they wanted then Obamacare and the Lilly Ledbetter Act would never have happened.

Mmm, so FUN that we have an open racist running as one of the two main presidential contenders. But hey, ESTABLISHMENT!!!!! :manson: