LexC

Family were not too struck on Ukraine

01 Croatia 02 Israel 03 Switzerland 04 France 05 Ukraine 06 Italy 07 Lithuania 08 Ireland 09 Serbia 10 Greece 11 Sweden 12 United Kingdom 13 Portugal 14 Armenia 15 Estonia 16 Georgia 17 Finland 18 Cyprus 19 Norway 20 Slovenia 21 Latvia 22 Austria 23 Luxembourg 24 Spain 25 Germany

I think the crowd that will be mass voting for Israel probably haven't even listened to any of the songs yet (and might still not). I don't think I have the words to describe my feelings at the moment other than a mix of sadness and anger that this whole mess has ruined what's supposed to be one of the most joyful nights on the entertainment calendar - entirely as a result of the EBU's choices. The atmosphere tonight during the voting is going to be absolutely awful - make no mistake, an Israeli win is the end of, if not the contest itself, the version of the contest that it has been up to now. So yeah, I've had better Eurovision day mornings!

IIRC in 2010 & 2011 the vast majority of viewers still waited until after all the songs had been performed before they voted.

Genuinely might be that the only way to stop an Israeli win is to go all in with Croatia

The one thing I'm taking from it is that Italy probably have very low viewership in the semi finals, which means that it's probably possible to manipulate the televote if you've got the money to spend and a point to prove - a bit like Moldova 2021 surprisingly getting 12 points from France in the semis and then absolutely nothing two days later. Also Italy are lowkey the most right wing country in Western Europe so of course they'd be more primed to be pro-Israeli.

If it were up to me then I'd run them like this (this might also be the "do everything to prevent an Israel win short of giving them the death slot" order) 01 Sweden 02 Latvia 03 Luxembourg 04 Germany 05 Greece 06 Israel 07 Lithuania 08 Spain 09 Estonia 10 Serbia 11 United Kingdom 12 Armenia 13 Ireland 14 Finland 15 Slovenia 16 Cyprus 17 Switzerland 18 Georgia 19 Portugal 20 Italy 21 Norway 22 Netherlands 23 Ukraine 24 Croatia 25 France 26 Austria

Final running order draws First Half Sweden (Opening) UK Germany Lithuania Ireland Luxembourg Greece Producers Choice Spain Italy Serbia Portugal Ukraine Croatia Switzerland Armenia Latvia Georgia Estonia Israel Netherlands Second Half France Slovenia Finland Cyprus Austria Norway

Not mad at Latvia being the surprise Belgium replacement - or at least that's how I see it - means they break their NQ streak and aren't as likely to abscond next year!

So my final call is that I am adding Estonia as the 10th qualifier.

The Italian staging is ALL WRONG I'm sorry!

Denmark didn't pop off to the level it needed - I feel like that's cooked now.

Ready for the next semi to get underway soon. This one feels different to the first one predictions wise as I'm pretty solid on these nine making it Greece Switzerland Austria Armenia Georgia Belgium Israel Norway Netherlands And then the last one feels a bit like a shot in the dark. Estonia seems like the obvious next one and I'll admit it's the most likely but I wonder if the Albanian diaspora will beat it to the punch. Very much rooting for San Marino to be the dark horses and get that 10th spot though (and then beating Spain on Saturday yes I went there!)

So the running order so far looks like this First Half Sweden (Opening) UK Germany Lithuania Ireland Luxembourg Producers Choice Spain Italy Serbia Portugal Ukraine Croatia Second Half France Slovenia Finland Cyprus

I guess it goes to show that slow songs can still go through on televotes with Serbia, Slovenia AND Portugal through!

Don't think I'm going to change anything from these first predictions - Slovenia and/or Serbia might go through at the expense of Australia/Poland/Cyprus but I think these will be the 10.

Throwing the tactical votes behind Australia and Slovenia tonight - think the rest of my faves are safe!

I'm sold on Croatia being the (televote) winner on Saturday.

Think Poland are in after that!

Ireland nailed that - focus group of my straight brother tells me this might cross over to the straights!

Pre-show predictions IN Cyprus Lithuania Ireland Ukraine Poland Croatia Finland Australia Portugal Luxembourg OUT Serbia Iceland Slovenia Moldova Azerbaijan (this will probably be very wrong as always!)

The hype is here ladies! Looking forward to being glued to the TV screen for the Ireland-UK-Ukraine run of performances.

Semi Two Definite IN Switzerland Netherlands Israel All three of these will have enough supporters to get them into at least 10th place (regrettably for the discourse in one case). I think Netherlands could pip Switzerland for the televote to win the Semi. Likely IN Norway Armenia Belgium Greece Austria Georgia Let the record reflect I was never a Belgium naysayer! All six of these have enough strength in song, performance and/or neighbour support to get through. Dogfight Malta Albania Denmark Estonia Really hard to call this one. Nobody can deny Malta are throwing everything they have at this one but it could possibly be too much. A similar story is going on with Estonia where actually it could be a bit too much plus Armenia is very much in the same lane as this one. Albania isn't good enough of a song to qualify but basically all of their diaspora countries are voting in Semi 2 PLUS the Rest of the World which I imagine is disproportionately Montenegro/North Macedonia votes in the semis could see this get 40+ points just by showing up. I went with Denmark as the 10th place qualifier though on the balance of having the least holding it back and (credit to Rob on this one) I buy the idea that there's an untapped market for something more "good and safe" to cut through all the wacko jacko going on in this semi. Likely OUT Czechia San Marino Latvia Despite putting them all down here I don't think its impossible that one of these three makes the biggest of all shocks, especially if all four of Malta/Albania/Denmark/Estonia fall short. Again, TLDR: 01 Netherlands 02 Switzerland 03 Greece 04 Armenia 05 Israel 06 Norway 07 Belgium 08 Austria 09 Georgia 10 Denmark 11 Albania 12 Estonia 13 Malta 14 Czechia 15 San Marino 16 Latvia

Guess it's now or never on the Semi Final predictions! Semi One Definite IN Ukraine Croatia Finland Lithuania Televote wise, all of these are safely in. I'd say Ukraine would be the most likely winner of the Semi given the voting demographics of this group but Croatia could beat them in the Saturday night vote. Likely IN Luxembourg Portugal Ireland I'm very bullish on Portugal in particular but looking at the rehearsal clips it's by far and away the most impactful entry in the last part of the show. Likewise with what can be seen in Ireland's staging. I'd be lying if I said I was the most vocal Luxembourg supporter but I think on balance they'd have to go spectacularly wrong to not get at least 10th place. Borderline IN Cyprus All season long I've assumed this would have been through but the rehearsal clip has been underwhelming and now that we know the opening of Semi One is going to feature SloMo AND Fuego I worry that this will feel lacking and/or amateur by comparison. Battle 1 Serbia/Slovenia So my hypothesis is that only one out of Serbia or Slovenia will qualify. Serbia has the bigger neighbour vote, better staging while Slovenia has the better running order and (IMO) song. I've edged in Slovenia but fully prepared to see the opposite happen. Battle 2 Poland/Australia Then comes the battle for the tenth spot. Again, Poland has the bigger voting bloc while Australia has the better draw. With regard to staging and song I'd call them both very level with each other so I've gone for Australia by a cat's whisker, especially if Poland are going to serve nocals like that rehearsal clip. Likely OUT Azerbaijan Iceland Moldova Iceland and Moldova are both giving "minimum viable entry" teas and Azerbaijan have too feeble a song to cut through this semi. TLDR: (Scoreboard version) 01 Ukraine 02 Croatia 03 Lithuania 04 Finland 05 Ireland 06 Portugal 07 Luxembourg 08 Cyprus 09 Slovenia 10 Australia 11 Poland 12 Serbia 13 Azerbaijan 14 Moldova 15 Iceland

C'Mon San Marino!