LexC

Loved San Marino - could that sneak through?

Part of me thinks there's some kind of pathway for Malta for being the first "normal" pop song (my Mum's words there) of the night after a lot of oddities!

Hmmm, I feel like this staging was hyped up to be better than its turned out to be. Kinda think people were checking their social media talking about Serbia all the way through that.

Israel frustratingly well performed - stay back $l*t!

Here we go girlies!

Open question does seem to be where the "rock vote" will swing behind between Finland, Georgia or San Marino...

Pre show Qualifier Predictions: Sweden - never in doubt Czech Republic - elevated the song with the staging, sorted out the vocal mixing and a strong closer Serbia - the subtitles they've added at various points will help people "get it" on first viewing that maybe wouldn't have done without them Australia - is probably through on jury votes alone but seems like they've done all they can to get a decent televote (for Australia) Poland - less sure this is a big contender like some thought it might be but should be safe enough ...and after this I'm feeling like a lot of this is very "on the cusp" Finland - should be a big impactful opening but it wouldn't surprise me if this is the shock non qualifier and there's a lot for a jury to mark down Ireland - Elevated to the best it could be and really stands out in the middle of the semi Azerbaijan - the song is very middle of the road but it's well sung and staged AND this is Azerbaijan Estonia - there's enough there quality wise but I feel like this might be a it of the UK syndrome where people like it but not enough for it to be in people's top 3-5 to make them televote for it AND the jury have got other priorities in this semi. Cyprus - JUST sneaking in on the basis of nothing else really being in this one's lane AND pretty effective staging but would not be surprised to see this as a surprise loss Cuspily Out San Marino - the call between this and Cyprus is I think the jury will swing behid Cyprus a bit more AND Cyprus's televote starting point is that much higher than San Marino's effective 0 without Italy voting. Wouldn't mind this knocking out Estonia/Finland but my gut says a "only superfans will know this" treat this will remain! Belgium - with Australia, Poland and Azerbaijan already through, I don't think there will be room for Belgium in the big male jury bait songs. Plus Sweden and Czechia really memory hole this. Romania - ultimately all it's ever really been has been an endearingly camp naffbop. If Albania were victims of death by juries, I don't think Llamame can overcome the hurdles in front of it. Israel - kind of the same deal as Romania, only without the balkan vote advantage And it's been lovely having you but time's up... Malta Georgia Montenegro North Macedonia

Clip of the final minute of the UK! TTGRUW1NxwI

Another contractually obligated plug for escXtra's livestream possibly featuring Iz. If Tuesday night was a surprise set of qualifiers then I really can't call Semi 2 yet at all!

An interesting trend that seems to have emerged out of the semi is that "De Diepte" is the song appearing in the most download charts on ESCTracker and actually has a higher YT viewcount than Norway. Maybe this suggests that the Dutch did better on the televote than many of us expected?

Fair cop I completely forgot this. Will try and get some late votes in ASAP

Bold take but I don't think anything else from Latvia or Albania's NFs would have made it through this semi except maybe Aminata but that would have been fishing in very similar waters to a lot of other female ballads so it wouldn't have been a safe bet. I think they're both just victims of death by juries. Also Denmark didn't really have anything in DMGP that was any good so that probably didn't count for anything. And poor Croatia really can't seem to catch a break in recent years - I feel like they could be at risk of not bothering if their bad run continues?

So seven songs have now been thrown onto the scrapheap; Albania Latvia Slovenia Bulgaria Croatia Denmark Austria What will be the lessons learned from these failures, and might we see some more countries at risk of withdrawl? Were there any entries from the national finals that would have made it through tonight instead?

I don't know if they'll have the guts to do it but I'd put Ukraine on first (and death slot Switzerland!)

So current state of play after Semi One First Half Italy (9) France Spain Germany Switzerland Armenia Portugal Norway Ukraine Netherlands Second Half United Kingdom Iceland Lithuania Greece Moldova

Already got to fit Norway, France and Spain around each other in the first half, hopefully not Ukraine and Moldova as well now!

Iceland get 2nd half

True, but the Eurovision Introspective Midtempo Contest would be hard to sit through for four hours!

Tactical support on Thursday for Ireland, Czech Republic and Romania!

You may well be onto something, if there's a similar drought of the bops from Thursday's show then Spain is going to stand out even more than it already does.

That's a lot of the uptempo numbers out from this semi!

My ranking of this semi Netherlands Greece Portugal Latvia Albania Moldova Austria Norway Croatia Armenia Ukraine Denmark Iceland Lithuania Bulgaria Slovenia Switzerland In terms of my earlier predictions, I'm swapping Iceland back out and Moldova back in.

I think Austria did enough to get through from that performance!

Croatia came together so well I'm wondering could that do better than people are expecting? (My parents both really liked it for whatever that's worth)

Loved Portugal - that's going through surely!