LexC

Serbia gave me the hot euroslut energy that Moldova dropped the ball on - I think they're getting at least one of my tactical support votes tonight!

Czechia's blown it a bit there! I don't think they'll be making it through.

Estonia just feels so flat after San Marino - think everyone's just checking social media at the minute!

OMG Senhit the style icon!

Five minute warning gyals! ROLL CALL!

From safest to most in danger I'd probably rank the 17 songs like this Switzerland Iceland Bulgaria San Marino Greece Finland Denmark Serbia Portugal Austria ------------------- Albania Moldova Czech Republic Poland Estonia Latvia Georgia I think realistically Denmark, Serbia, Portugal, Austria, Albania, Moldova and Czech Republic are competing for the last four slots in the final. I wouldn't expect to see that bottom four having any kind of realistic chance except maybe Poland/Estonia at a push if they're incredibly lucky. Equally, that top 6 look to be pretty safe unless the juries completely kill Finland and the rock fans don't turn out for a Thursday night show?

Oh and Pavel sis you can make it up to me with an 18 in the final x

oh yeah, dis my sing N3_y0Uev9WE me qualified

Justice for Zaminton!

Subject to review post-Jury show but right now my ten would be 01. San Marino: 'Adrenalina' by Senhit (ft. Flo Rida) 02. Estonia: 'The Lucky One' by Uku Suviste 03. Czech Republic: 'Omaga' by Benny Cristo 04. Greece: 'Last Dance' by Stefania 05. Austria: 'Amen' by Vincent Bueno 06. Poland: 'The Ride' by Rafał 07. Moldova: 'Sugar' by Natalia Gordienko 08. Iceland: '10 Years' by Daði og Gagnamagnið 09. Serbia: 'Loco Loco' by Hurricane 10. Georgia: 'You' by Tornike Kipiani 11. Albania: 'Karma' by Anxhela Peristeri 12. Portugal: 'Love Is On My Side' by The Black Mamba 13. Bulgaria: 'Growing Up Is Getting Old' by Victoria 14. Finland: 'Dark Side' by Blind Channel 15. Latvia: 'The Moon Is Rising' by Samanta Tīna 16. Switzerland: 'Tout l'Univers' by Gjon's Tears 17. Denmark: 'Øve os på hinanden' by Fyr og Flamme I know people have really rated Austria's rehearsals but I actually think Portugal has more going for it as a Jury save ballad. I put Serbia and Czech Republic through last so I could see them being jury killed and Austria, Albania or Moldova (who I think have de-Moldova'd themselves out of contention) being next in line.

From what we can see on ESCTracker the top 5 songs that are doing the best on the download charts are Malta, Ukraine, Norway, Sweden and Lithuania. I could see that being a believable top 5 of the televote?

OR, what an angle to sell for the televote?

I can see Belgium being used more as a spacer between two favourites rather than the death slot. Israel, UK and Cyprus probably the best bets for opening. Ukraine would actually make a lot of sense as a closer as ideally you want something big and impactful but that's also got a uniqueness to it - Italy could also work as a closer in that way too but idk how likely they are to give them the closing slot for the second time in four years.

Malta are back up to second in the betting odds and gaining!

This was such a tough semi that I feel like whoever made 11th and 12th in this would have qualified from Thursday’s semi. Croatia feels like the clear 11th placer so it probably stings the most for them. Was really worried that Romania would have been the last qualifier there but that’s a (IMO) deserved third DNQ in a row!

something something votes something something box something something innuendo

Still doesn’t feel real that the actual jury show of semi final one takes place tomorrow!

Although now that they've all had the second rehearsals I wonder if they might prefer to stick with the version they recorded on Thursday? Either way I don't think it'll make that much difference.

Spain get first half as well.

Germany, Italy and France have all drawn into the second half of the final. The UK and Spain will be drawing theirs later this afternoon.

You love to see it!

Iceland and Malta are the two main contenders that I think have the potential to do top 3/5 on both the jury and televote which is why they're probably the two leading ones for me at the moment. And I will add Bulgaria into that mix as well based on how well their rehearsal has gone down! France/Switzerland I can see struggling on the televote and Italy feels like the juries might only put it about 7th or 8th which puts too much of a handbreak on it like Grande Amore in 2015.

Iceland and Malta can host if they win, worst case scenario they might have to spend a year building a roof on an outdoor venue but if Azerbaijan can build a whole arena in 9 months then anything is possible!

North Macedonia have done their traditional overcooking of the stage show, despite there just being one person alone on stage. Never change <3

My final pre-rehearsal predictions for Semi One 01 Malta 02 Lithuania 03 Cyprus 04 Sweden 05 Azerbaijan 06 Romania 07 Israel 08 Ireland 09 Norway 10 Russia 11 Croatia 12 Ukraine 13 Slovenia 14 North Macedonia 15 Belgium 16 Australia Malta through to Sweden are the only ones I'd put down as certain qualifiers at this stage. I'd say Azerbaijan is the clear leader of the three Eastern bangers and Romania and Israel being such strong performers in EuroJury makes me think they'll make it as well with Romania as the token ballad usurping Slovenia and North Macedonia into the non qualifiers. Ireland I think has enough potential to make it even in a tough semi and I see Norway getting a bit of a Michal Szpak style low jury-high televote which will be enough to make it. Then it was literally a coin flip between Russia and Croatia for the last slot and I've put Russia in by a whisker as there has to be one of the fempop bangers that gets crowded out in the tough semi. Ukraine will be murdered by the jury and the other two ex-Yugos will be murdered by the televote.