LexC

So my final call is that I am adding Estonia as the 10th qualifier.

The Italian staging is ALL WRONG I'm sorry!

Denmark didn't pop off to the level it needed - I feel like that's cooked now.

Ready for the next semi to get underway soon. This one feels different to the first one predictions wise as I'm pretty solid on these nine making it Greece Switzerland Austria Armenia Georgia Belgium Israel Norway Netherlands And then the last one feels a bit like a shot in the dark. Estonia seems like the obvious next one and I'll admit it's the most likely but I wonder if the Albanian diaspora will beat it to the punch. Very much rooting for San Marino to be the dark horses and get that 10th spot though (and then beating Spain on Saturday yes I went there!)

So the running order so far looks like this First Half Sweden (Opening) UK Germany Lithuania Ireland Luxembourg Producers Choice Spain Italy Serbia Portugal Ukraine Croatia Second Half France Slovenia Finland Cyprus

I guess it goes to show that slow songs can still go through on televotes with Serbia, Slovenia AND Portugal through!

Don't think I'm going to change anything from these first predictions - Slovenia and/or Serbia might go through at the expense of Australia/Poland/Cyprus but I think these will be the 10.

Throwing the tactical votes behind Australia and Slovenia tonight - think the rest of my faves are safe!

I'm sold on Croatia being the (televote) winner on Saturday.

Think Poland are in after that!

Ireland nailed that - focus group of my straight brother tells me this might cross over to the straights!

Pre-show predictions IN Cyprus Lithuania Ireland Ukraine Poland Croatia Finland Australia Portugal Luxembourg OUT Serbia Iceland Slovenia Moldova Azerbaijan (this will probably be very wrong as always!)

The hype is here ladies! Looking forward to being glued to the TV screen for the Ireland-UK-Ukraine run of performances.

Semi Two Definite IN Switzerland Netherlands Israel All three of these will have enough supporters to get them into at least 10th place (regrettably for the discourse in one case). I think Netherlands could pip Switzerland for the televote to win the Semi. Likely IN Norway Armenia Belgium Greece Austria Georgia Let the record reflect I was never a Belgium naysayer! All six of these have enough strength in song, performance and/or neighbour support to get through. Dogfight Malta Albania Denmark Estonia Really hard to call this one. Nobody can deny Malta are throwing everything they have at this one but it could possibly be too much. A similar story is going on with Estonia where actually it could be a bit too much plus Armenia is very much in the same lane as this one. Albania isn't good enough of a song to qualify but basically all of their diaspora countries are voting in Semi 2 PLUS the Rest of the World which I imagine is disproportionately Montenegro/North Macedonia votes in the semis could see this get 40+ points just by showing up. I went with Denmark as the 10th place qualifier though on the balance of having the least holding it back and (credit to Rob on this one) I buy the idea that there's an untapped market for something more "good and safe" to cut through all the wacko jacko going on in this semi. Likely OUT Czechia San Marino Latvia Despite putting them all down here I don't think its impossible that one of these three makes the biggest of all shocks, especially if all four of Malta/Albania/Denmark/Estonia fall short. Again, TLDR: 01 Netherlands 02 Switzerland 03 Greece 04 Armenia 05 Israel 06 Norway 07 Belgium 08 Austria 09 Georgia 10 Denmark 11 Albania 12 Estonia 13 Malta 14 Czechia 15 San Marino 16 Latvia

Guess it's now or never on the Semi Final predictions! Semi One Definite IN Ukraine Croatia Finland Lithuania Televote wise, all of these are safely in. I'd say Ukraine would be the most likely winner of the Semi given the voting demographics of this group but Croatia could beat them in the Saturday night vote. Likely IN Luxembourg Portugal Ireland I'm very bullish on Portugal in particular but looking at the rehearsal clips it's by far and away the most impactful entry in the last part of the show. Likewise with what can be seen in Ireland's staging. I'd be lying if I said I was the most vocal Luxembourg supporter but I think on balance they'd have to go spectacularly wrong to not get at least 10th place. Borderline IN Cyprus All season long I've assumed this would have been through but the rehearsal clip has been underwhelming and now that we know the opening of Semi One is going to feature SloMo AND Fuego I worry that this will feel lacking and/or amateur by comparison. Battle 1 Serbia/Slovenia So my hypothesis is that only one out of Serbia or Slovenia will qualify. Serbia has the bigger neighbour vote, better staging while Slovenia has the better running order and (IMO) song. I've edged in Slovenia but fully prepared to see the opposite happen. Battle 2 Poland/Australia Then comes the battle for the tenth spot. Again, Poland has the bigger voting bloc while Australia has the better draw. With regard to staging and song I'd call them both very level with each other so I've gone for Australia by a cat's whisker, especially if Poland are going to serve nocals like that rehearsal clip. Likely OUT Azerbaijan Iceland Moldova Iceland and Moldova are both giving "minimum viable entry" teas and Azerbaijan have too feeble a song to cut through this semi. TLDR: (Scoreboard version) 01 Ukraine 02 Croatia 03 Lithuania 04 Finland 05 Ireland 06 Portugal 07 Luxembourg 08 Cyprus 09 Slovenia 10 Australia 11 Poland 12 Serbia 13 Azerbaijan 14 Moldova 15 Iceland

C'Mon San Marino!

oops!

How I would arrange the running order: Semi One 01 Cyprus: Silia Kapsis - Liar 02 Serbia: Teya Dora - Ramonda 03 Lithuania: Silvester Belt - Luktelk 04 Ukraine: alyona alyona & Jerry Heil - Teresa & Maria 05 Ireland: Bambia Thug - Doomsday Blue 06 Poland: Luna - The Tower 07 Croatia: Baby Lasagne - Rim Tim Tagi Dim 08 Azerbaijan: Fahree feat. Ilkin Dovlatov - Özünlə apar 09 Iceland: Hera Bjork - Scared of Heights 10 Moldova: Natalia Barbu - In The Middle 11 Finland: Windows95man - No Rules 12 Portugal: iolanda - Grito 13 Australia: Electric Fields - One Milkali (One Blood) 14 Slovenia: Raiven - Veronika 15 Luxembourg: Tali - Fighter Semi Two 01 Malta: Sarah Bonnici - Loop 02 Czechia: Aiko - Pedestal 03 Albania: Besa - Titan 04 Greece: Marina Satti - Zari 05 Switzerland: Nemo - The Code 06 Denmark: SABA - Sand 07 Armenia: Ladaniva - Jako 08 Austria - We Will Rave 09 Israel: Eden Golan - Hurricane 10 Estonia: 5miinust and Puuluup - (Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi 11 San Marino: Megara - 11:11 12 Georgia: Nutsa - Fire Fighter 13 Belgium: Mustii - Before The Party's Over 14 Norway: Gate - Ulveheim 15 Latvia: Dons - Hollow 16 Netherlands: Joost Klein - Europapa

Think I've settled on my first ranking of the full 37 songs. ELITE 01 Austria: Kaleen - We Will Rave 02 Switzerland: Nemo - The Code 03 Belgium: Mustii - Before The Party's Over EXCELLENT 04 Spain: Nebulossa - Zorra 05 United Kingdom: Olly Alexander - Dizzy 06 Norway: Gate - Ulveham GREAT 07 Ukraine: Alyona Alyona & Jery Heil - Teresa & Maria 08 Australia: Electric Fields - One Milkali (One Blood) 09 Cyprus: Silia Kapsis - Lirar 10 Croatia: Baby Lasagne - Rim Tim Tagi Dim 11 Finland: Windows95man - No Rules! 12 France: Slimane - Mon amour 13 Sweden: Marcus & Martinus - Unforgettable GOOD 14 Denmark: SABA - Sand 15 Georgia: Nuts Buzladze - Firefighter 16 San Marino: Megara - 11:11 17 Italy: Angelina Mango - La noia 18 Poland: Luna - The Tower 19 Estonia: 5miinust & Puuluup - (nedest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi DECENT 20 Portugal: iolanda - Grita 21 Greece: Marina Satti - Zari 22 Latvia: Dons - Hollow 23 Armenia: Ladaniva - Jako 24 Slovenia: Raiven - Veronika 25 Malta: Sarah Bonnici - Loop 26 Netherlands: Joost Klein - Europapa 27 Ireland: Bambia Thug - Doomsday Blue THANKS, I HATE IT. 28 Israel: Eden Golan - Hurricane MEH 29 Czechia: Aiko - Pedestal 30 Lithuania: Silvester Belt - Luktelk 31 Serbia: Teya Dora - Ramonda 32 Luxembourg: Tali - Fighter 33 Iceland: Hera Bjork - Scared of Heights 34 Albania: Besa - TITAN 35 Germany: Isaak - Always on the Run 36 Azerbaijan: Fahree feat. Ilkin Dovlatov - Özünlə Apar 37 Moldova: Natalia Barbu - In The Middle

Agreeing with the consensus that this is Marcus & Martinus's to lose but I'm hoping for good showings from Dotter & Jacqline.

Voted x

Votes will be late but will be in.

Still totally here for this fast food basic bop.

New Lexico's votes are in!

I am declaring myself pro-Windows95man and I regret nothing!