BOOBA GRANDE

I think this is far too optimistic haha, as it is sliding and will continue slide with the exception of September due to the album boost, possible VMA performance and other promo. I’d say it should cross 100m around mid-November and by the end of the year around 110-120m?

Streaming is a metric Kylie has always struggled in, but ‘Padam Padam’ turned things around a lot. That said, the way the UK album streaming counting works, one or two big hits won’t directly affect the streaming, as their streaming points will be down weighted to the average of the other tracks. Essentially an album needs there streaming hits of some sorts to stick on that metric. And surely one big hit is not enough to get big numbers — Miley with the song of the year ‘Flowers’ and generally being streaming friendly ‘only’ managed to debut with 8.2K streaming at number 2 and spend only 8 weeks in the album streaming chart. If we look at the former BMG studio albums streaming runs, we see: Golden — 1,870 streaming units debut with a chart-run of 19-36-79 DISCO — 3,040 streaming units debut with a slightly better chart-run of 14-27-75 Since then the streaming sales in the albums grew significantly, so to achieve the same peak as DISCO, Tension would also need to get bigger streaming numbers. It also doesn’t help that ‘Tension’ only has 14 tracks instead of 16 for now, but will Padam and overall hype be enough to make an all-round streaming breakthrough for Kylie?

Chase & Status debuting in the top-50, while behind a huge Travis album bomb, is not something I expected to see!

I don’t understand how it’s only 12 shows for three months — one per week isn’t really a usual density for Vegas residencies, as far as I know. Looks like Kylie has negotiated a very soft deal for her, so she can promote the album etc.

Lots of dope DnB and more, loved the final this time! :D Was a bigger pleasure to listen to it than usual. Voted!

Why would they add her now? It’s falling in most of the markets for weeks now. If anything, it has a chance after VMA’s / during the album release, but even then the chances are quite slim.

I don't get the phrasing though - "in talks to receive". As if there's something that is needed from Kylie and Shakira themselves? Or they are just in contention to receive these respective awards?

I agree on this — one or two weeks earlier would be better, taking into account that they would surely release another promo track one or two weeks before the album and have yet another selected track to promote on streaming for the album release week. The schedule will seem a little bit too saturated.

Thank you! And what is considered ‘the main’ chart?

What is the difference between top-40 and top-100?

Tbh it might indeed make sense to release it to coincide with the album release, as the single 2 might get overshadowed by Padam, however good it might be.

I think we have another Weekend feature out this Friday, the one by Travis Scott with him and Bad Bunny. Should do huge numbers in the Americas, but can see it being high in the UK too.

They could release it as a buzz track 1 or 2 weeks before release (like 'I Love It' and 'Raining Glitter'). And if it really took off, they could make it a single. All we know is that the next two singles are pre-determined and even have (about to have?) videos for them, with the next single probably being 'Hold On to Now'.

651k streams on Spotify yesterday and 40m overall! So in exactly 2 months 'Padam Padam' has reached a milestone that any other individual BMG track is yet to achieve and only other 10 individual tracks had achieved before. And we still have 5.5 months until the end of the year, the album boost, possible US promo etc.

In US terms, yes, there is a hyperbole around the song by those who write about it in the media. But we need not to forget that if you don't have the USA / Latin American market, your streams won't be that high. For example, a huge top-5 UK hit 'Dancing is Healing' by Rudimental, while being available since 21st of April of 2023, has accumulated 'only' 18m streams. PP has properly took off in the 4 countries, and only UK of those is a big streaming market. So it's generating substantially for something that hasn't properly charted on Spotify in any other market. It's gonna be around 100m and 200m by mid-2025 at most. So 'Run Away With Me' analogy doesn't work that well too. I mean, yes, it could have done even better, but I think BMG don't have the legs to properly promote it in more regional playlists due to less ties than the major labels etc - at the same time it didn't take off to the extent they couldn't ignore it WW completely (like Peggy Gou did). Regardless, it has done amazingly well on Apple Music all over the world, it's a shame we don't have the figures out there.

If a song rises 25% week-on-week, while on ACR and less than 3 years old, it will be granted an automatic reset to SCR in the chart 📊 of that week of a rise.

I mean it’s not entirely impossible… also the new singles will also give some boost to PP. But an automatic reset might also be on the cards, if the album boost is significant enough.

That's one AMAZING photo! The Sugababes indeed!

^ PP is on DCL-1, so we’ll have two more weeks top-20 at very least with a chance of evading ACR the week after next with the new remix released!

Billie Eilish might debut top-10? Also we have a J-Hus bomb, but I don’t see it troubling the official top-10. Will debut high, but will tumble down through the week. But I think Jorja Smith will also overtake. So PP should be above above I Can See You and maybe Pakistan, and beyond Little Things, Popular, Fukumean and maybe Billie and J-Hus. That makes it around 11-14 with steady streaming (maybe -1-2% again) and sales falling. Hopefully another 20k+ week!

Tbh I never expected Padam to be number one on pure sales on the 8th (!) week of release! The sales are generally much more frontloaded than streaming is (which is why precisely ACR concept was invented).

Oh come on, drip feeding another remix to the line isn’t anything super big, no need to be patronising :P I’ll be happy to receive more info of the future strategy if it comes, even if it doesn’t turn out to be 💯 true, things often change!

That’s great :D thank you guys for the info. Going to ACR after just 9 weeks would have been unfortunate.

There's no way it will open with less than 40k. If anything, 'Golden' is an indicator with 48k sold. That was without the inflation of the chart battle and would probably be a rough indicator of how much DISCO would sell without a chart battle and pushed forward cassettes. Also it had a minor hit 'Dancing'. I'd say 50k+ is a given. Maybe 60-70k? Like Tommie said, this could sell more physical copies to the GP now, judging by the popularity of 'Padam' in iTunes.

But I thought the market had declined by less? Overall singles sales are down 2.43% week-on-week to 26,590,593 units – an 11-week low but 13.09% above same week 2022 consumption of 23,513,238 units. Paid-for sales are down 7.46% week-on-week at 305,099 – 8.44% below same week 2022 sales of 333,215. This makes streaming sales of this week of 26,285,494 units, and the previous week the streaming was 26,923,413. That makes a 2.37% decline. And Kylie had an estimated 2.54% decline. She avoided ACR, if the streamed for the previous week were less then 20,092 units, which is possible, but not certain. Happy to be proved wrong though!