Hi guys,
It's been a huge while since I actively posted anywhere on here, but since I've been talking to many of you, I hope you won't mind if I squeeze in a thought or two.
Right now I'm in Turkey, I fled Russia the day before yesterday and moving to Mexico tomorrow. I bought the tickets on 4th of March, when Parliament was rumoured to claim a martial law, but instead voted for a set of very repressing laws about the "fakes" of this "special operation". Since I can be quite easily put into the action of those laws, the decision was made. And the next day the flats of tens of my acquaintances got searched by the cops, some of them got detained, accused of "false terrorism calls". I was happy to wake up by myself but moved my laptop and money to the other place the same day. Now I feel free and relieved.
I: Genesis
How did it all come to this? One can say it goes back to 1917 - 1918 with the liquidation of the Russian Constituent Assembly. And they are not wrong: the lawful evolution of power was interrupted there and is still held by the descendants of those people. Decades of total repressions and emigration of many people who can even try to think differently also played the fatal role.
But overall this war and its consequences can be described by one word (other than obvious moral degradation and total lack of empathy of any kind)
It's delusion.
Putin basically built the system of the folders laying on his desk. He was happy receiving good news in them and complemented such departments, and those who brought the difficulties weren't fired - but weren't treated nicely either. And from year to year he was fed the information that Ukrainian government is controlled by NATO / nazis, normal Ukrainians are unhappy with that, and once the Russian army enters the territory, the opposing part will immediately withdraw and people will meet the Russian soldiers with flowers. And it seems that he genuinely believed in all of it.
He also believed that all the money he threw in the army wasn't stolen. Why would it be different to any other sphere, where loads of his acquaintances often didn't even bother to hide anything, he didn't even try to ask, because - again - he is delusional.
The delusion of oligarchs that he would hold on to his initial role as a guarding dog of their treasures. The delusion of opposition thinking that he cannot be that crazy. The delusion of masses, who got very poor after USSR falling and held to the idea of the "special nation", trying to stick onto that idea as a replacement for lack of any decent physical life.
II. Collective responsibility. Where does it start and how far does it go?
I've been reading a lot of very different answers to this. Very popular opinion that it's only [mainly] Putin is to blame, and it has its basis. This decision is his and solely his own. He stopped consulting on most key decisions with anyone for a while, he literally makes most of them by himself now.
Western leaders keep saying that too, but then we see most of the sanctions hitting mainly the people who don't agree with the war. It became really hard to fly away, and EU pressed even Serbia to stop flying to Russia. Visa / Mastercard banning abroad (not internal!) operations means that people who fled due to the danger of being prosecuted now can't sustain themselves and they might have to go back simply because they stopped having the funds to live. It also means that donating to independent journalists and activists will become much harder. VPN - a magic saviour from numerous blockings of independent media - can almost only be paid through abroad visa / mastercard transactions, potentially cutting off loads of Russians who want to get not the official information.
When IELTS cancels the examination in Russia, will it make Putin angry, or will it make it even harder for kids to pass the test and try to escape Russia by going to a foreign University? When internet network operators cut Russia off, does it help to stop the war, or does it help Putin to break the internet for the Russians, and now even without even doing anything? Not to mention a ridiculous Meta policy, which confirmed the paranoia of dictators all over the world and justified even further repressions.
Some people / influencers / officials say that it is all to help the people go on public strike against the war. Others even dare to add that silence means compliance with Putin. There was an enormous amount of campaigns to make companies quit Russia, blaming them for funding war otherwise - but barely anyone of activists or politicians say that EU literally funds the war every day by buying gas in enormous amounts. Russia already got 14 billion euros for selling fossils since 24th of February alone.
Obviously I know that you can't stop buying oil and gas in an instant. But all the bells rang 8 years ago. Yet the corrupt politicians were very fine with not changing this situation at all or even worsening it, therefore funding not only the preparations to this war, but all of the Putin's guards who lock away and scare off most of the opposition to the regime. And now these people want Russians to oppose the huge army of cops, who they helped to fund all these years.
Does Putin hold responsibility to this? Obviously, yes.
Should his supporters be accountable, even if they believe Russia is "saving" Ukrainians?
Should 'I stay out of politics' people be accountable trying to stay in their own shell and not saying or even thinking of anything happening in their country?
Should Navalny be responsible for his strategic voting, where he urged to vote for the current parliament parties and 95% of its candidates, all of whom very obviously then supported the war?
Should the Yabloko party be accountable for, while opposing Putin and actually predicting this war from long ago, saying the wrong words and often repulsing their own followers?
Should the international establishment be responsible for literally funding this war for years before and even now?
Should the voters of the west, just like the voters of Russia, be responsible for the actions of their respective governments, since they actually have fair elections and freedom of speech?
I believe the answer to all of this is yes.
And no. As all of the above were in the comfort zone, and really: no one in their right mind could have thought that in 2022 you can arrange a bloody war with enormous amount of casualties in the center of Europe. All of us underestimated his insanity, and it is really not hard to do so.
But I urge to give a chance to people who oppose Putin to at least to leave the country and/or get the current independent information. Blaming Russians for this war while funding its government with easy oil money is hypocritical. Sanctions regarding access to information, money transactions for normal people (say, no more than 200-500 bucks) and the ability to move must be lifted.
That said, it is obviously incompatible to all of the damage and deaths of Ukrainian people caused by the Russian army. I have friends in Kyiv and my heart breaks for them when they tell me their news.
III. Where it will lead?
My prognosis is quite pessimistic, at least for Russia. I know Ukraine will stand up, even if Putin defeats Kyiv and tries to occupy it (but seems like even he realises now it is impossible). Ukraine is an amazing country full of proud people, and I have my full faith in them that they will recover no matter what.
As for the Russians... Well, I cannot rule out the nuclear weapons use. But other than that I feel my country will have a very long decay with constant repressions of "national traitors" and "fifth column", as all of the problems will be put on them. Most of Russians will cope, like they did in the Soviet Union. Or will escape in fear, either physically or emotionally. People will buy out all the groceries and drugs from stores and will blame NATO for their miserable lives. Or be silent. And for Putin it will be even easier to run the country, which will become a vassal of China.
Mostly I pity the future of kids, who didn't even have the chance to change the narrative and now may be trapped in this system for their lives.
But I hope once I can come back and restore my country, as an independent - but friendly and peaceful state for everybody. It would play the rightful part in European society, and any rivalry will be economical. And the people would finally know how to leave without fear and with a real hope for a decent life, respecting themselves and each other.
I also hope the oligopoly of the social media will somehow change. They have the power greater than of many countries, but don't really own up to the responsibilities coming with it. And I hope that the system, when a dictatorship that exports oil and gas literally gets even more money by entering into war due to the prices rocketing up, also somehow changes.
Many hopes and fears - but one thing is clear. We have entered a new phase of life, and no one knows where it will lead us to.