spicefunk

Working on the assumption they know something we previously didn't? I certainly wouldn't say my prediction is particularly high for a xf winners song...

The boys tend to sell more when they win initially? I've no idea about the acts but viewing figs down, singles market up (though X-F doesn't perform like the market it's kind of an aberrant statistically) and this time for charity which should boost although physical stockists get thinner and thinner every year. I''ll say 200-250k!

Don't GA have a version at 69 too, probably the album cut rising so not so bad combined. Great for scream and shout but OA/OS would have been preferable they'll have their work cut out next week. Is 99 good for a preorder? What do big ones usually get to pre-release?

I'm loving the "it's Britney bitch" callback! Her accent is slightly ridiculous but works for the song. The production and rap is mainly business as usual for will but just enough fresh going on to pull it off I think. No idea when it's being released and what against but a shoe in for no1 surely

Going by my Guinness book of hit singles (the last one) 1979 had the most sales with 89.1mil and 1997 had 87.0mil which fits ur figures above rather than the ones the occ are quoting here. I suppose if they were shipments rather than actual over the counter sales that would be a poorer comparison with the download era so maybe that's why they've used/worked out over the counter or revised them

Thanks Ben that's where I've looked but there used to be the end of year lists pinned at the top but they were moved months ago and can never find them now even with the crap search function!

Mumford and pink rereleases already? Disgraceful!

So who does everyone think will top this years list and on what sales? Really only see Emeli doing this and I''ll pessimistically say 1.1 million. It'll be touch and go if anyone else even clears the mil ;-(

Wow anyone have a good source for year end lists with sales? I know we have 2006 onward here but before that would be good and I can't find the ones on here very easily since they were moved a while ago nightmare!

What year had 10?! Don't remember that wow

Lol had actually forgotten Rihanna but even Loud "only" managed 800k+ will 2 mega hits and TTT launched with her biggest hit ever and is yet to crack it so not holding my breath. Top10 year end surely though. Isn't this depressing it underlines just how bad the albums market has got, it's just hitting me ;-(

The boob definitely could shift a fair few of his Xmas set - isn't he deluxing it? I don't see Emeli going so high as 1.5 but expect her to clear the million. Ed Sheeran has already chucked out his 're-deluxed album don't know if he has more singles planned but not sure just how much more he can boost despite x factor don't see him clearing a mil this year or Adele sadly. So I'm back to the same question really? Or another question how many albums will clear a million for the year in the end and how many normally do (last few years)?

I was noticing perusing a list of top selling albums by year that in the last 20ish years the top album each year has sold over 1.5mil (in some cases well over) except 2002 when Robbies Escapology 'only' sold 1.41mil. Looking at this years list it's hard to see many albums coming close. Emeli Sande has deluxed and continues to sell well but be surprised if it gets near 1.5mil! Adele won't deluxe, won't promote and sold so much last year that she's sort of inhibiting this years sales. Robbie will be big but he couldn't clear a mil of his last one total and looks like opening slower this time. Lana may do ok with her deluxe but cant see her clearing the million at this point. Babel will continue well but decreases week on week, as do pink and the killers and have lost their selling power to an extent. Who else is there? Don't see even Olly or 1D managing Depressing indeed ;-(

ISTM some enormous hits which were released in unfortunate years should be on this list the most (ie. c. 2005). Umbrella by Rihanna is a biggie for me. 10 weeks at number 1 and a year in the top 75 shouldn't equal over 200k short of this (not that she's short on mllion sellers). Mariah Carey's We Belong Together is another for me. For the time it was everywhere and in the chart for ages and yet only sold around 200k? Many non-top 10s do much more than that now I think an interesting counter list would be those million sellers which don't "deserve" the status - i'm thinking songs here which were big hits at a point but don't have longevity and are only benefiting from generally high sales periods - also those that didn't achieve it on initial run but trickle over finally after years of trickle selling and talent show rehashes. Personally i prefer songs which sprint over the line during their initial chart run!

They do go on in the book about it being dated to end may 12 and carly being likely to join the club. The last released they have is gotye and the last to pass it is Matt Cardle

The Sugababes aren't far off, they're over 4mil I believe. They've a bit more on the albums side though. Embarrassingly both still dwarfed by the spice girls after all these years in both categories!

Me2! We could do with better indexing perhaps. I used to be able to find the year end charts easily but now its a hassle every time they don't seem to be pinned where they used to be last I remember VC's figure no though he'd be the one to check with! (He will usually mention any passing as well) I usually look for these in the shops as I feel somehow then they'll keep getting future ones in but they're often really hard to find and double the price which just isn't a good deal. Last couple of time I bought chart books I looked in Smith's or Waterstones or release week, they weren't there so I ordered from amazon. A couple weeks later I'm sometimes seen they've appeared in the shops but by then its too late...

Thanks Bre, I needed some hip finger-on-the-pulse yoof help there ;p re the last single ever bit, not a huge difference in that I wouldn't have thought if you weren't that huge to begin with but suppose it does give things a push and they were probably on the up before they decided to call it quits. I remember seeing a few months ago on the news(!) They had announced their intention to split and was totally confused why this was newsworthy - they don't have "national treasure" status like Take That or Spice Girls did for eg. But clearly mattered more than I realised!

She is rather farther back this week than I thought she would be. I'm honestly not sure why SHM are so huge this time and why (as usual on BJ) everyone knew it would be no1 weeks ago. I think when the movie is released she may rise up to number 1, if its a hit and she performs it anywhere. Up to no2 this week at least is encouraging ;-)

Thanks for that full info Zeus, so interesting! Earlier noughties albums clearly almost all CDs looking at the figure vs last totals I saw, whereas 80s and 90s clearly had a fair whack of tapes and vinyl (morning glory particularly there it appears), and the latest 21st Century really starting to show (presumably) the digital impact Wish they had given us updated totals and the full formats breakdown as the more unusual ones would have been fascinating

I don't think any comparison is silly or pointless, we model on things we see as similar when there are common factors to attempt to improve the accuracy of predictions - it's called hypothetico-deductive reasoning! Obviously there are a lot of independent variables between the two but i'd be hard pressed to think of a more comparable act to JLS than 1D, particularly who are currently active. Although anyone who thinks JLS are obviously doomed without a doubt just due to 1Ds performance would be foolish IMHO. I still think top3/5, but no1 less likely for sure :)

I've only heard this once and thought it was pretty ropey - didn't know it was JLS until the DJ said at the end. Not really hearing a huge diff tbh sounded a bit desperate to me (thought it was The Wanted and they had went downhill!) but i've actually quite liked a lot of their previous stuff conversely. Interesting other people on BJ have quite a positive view on it though so like VC factoring that in to how i think it'll do (which is not the same as seeing what people want it to get to). I think top 3, no2 maybe most likely. I think their more recent leads have started with a big head of steam and tailed off significantly as the week has went on. This is not a quiet release period, sales have gone up again since they were last out and their appeal is dimishing so i doubt that first day fanbase push will be huge enough for them to get away with that and hit no1 this time.

I know! Last I saw the list no other album had shifted 400k though some of the big selling releases of last year may be over that now (Ed Sheeran can't be far)

That is interesting about Morning Glory although i'd think it'll have a good wee download total by now. It's a Classic and they've had other stuff out in the download era to stimulate interest in their back catalogue. Interesting to note this means Adele has not sold 1mil downloads of 21 yet and must be nearly 80% of sales still physical which I think is a higher proportion than average these days, especially for a "newer" artist. I always think of Adele as a typical kind of supermarket seller but whenever I'm in the local Asda or Tesco she's always below 40 and usually sitting at the 50-70 mark (though they only put out about 3 copies at a time and there are often none left) in their chart so thought maybe digital made that up. Apparently not, it's a conundrum! I don't see her overtaking Abba anytime soon unless she deluxe or promotes in some way again. She's selling around 5k a week at present. Assuming she kept that up the whole of next year that would only be half of what she needs and Abba aren't going to sell nothing (obviously she still has Xmas to go though). She's also unlikely to keep that level of sales up for that long. Ps - Hooray for CDs, long may they prosper!

Thanks for the responses. I was referring to the Paloma Faith quandary if I didn't make that clear rather than Adele (slightly off topic). Still not certain how Adele will do with this. I'd think top10 at least, but not sure how massive until the movie lands. If that's a big hit too (with loads of people hearing the song) I see it going much bigger which is a distinct possibility