FinalCylon

I'm in Lithuania, but you don't have a Lithuanian flag here. :lame:

Norway is the favorite because it combines the block vote of Scandinavia with a Belarussian singer designed to pick up a bunch of 8's and 10's from the "Soviet" block. (Can't get no 12's from them... that's reserved for Svetlana Loboda / Ukraine.) Also, it's a catchy tune and appeals to the lowest common denominator, objectionable to no one and loved by some. Additionally, Norway is the favorite with the bookies, with some giving less than 1-1 odds for bets on Norway to win. I put Norway as #1 in my predictions, but I don't really like it, at least not enough for it to win and to be subjected to hearing it dozens of times on the radio.

Predict the top 10 of the final [60 points available - 5 points for each correct position, 3 points for being one position off, 1 point for being two positions off; extra 10 points if you predict all the members correctly regardless of order] 01 - Norway 02 - Turkey 03 - Ukraine 04 - Iceland 05- Azerbaijan 06 - UK 07 - Moldova 08 - Bosnia & etc. 09 - Estonia 10 - Sweden Edit: I accidentally had 11 picks, so I removed the 11th. Bonus Question 1: Where will the 5 autoqualifiers finish? [50 points - 10 points for each correct position, 5 points for being one position off, 3 points for being two positions off, 1 point for being three positions off] France - 14 Germany - 21 Russia - 13 Spain - 15 UK - 6 Bonus Question 2: Which Scandinavian country (Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark) will be the least successful? [10 points for getting it correct, 0 for not!] Denmark Bonus Question 3: How many votes will be left to be announced when it is mathematically impossible for the winner to be caught? (NB: Does not include the vote that makes it mathematically impossible) [10 points for getting the exact number of votes remaining, 5 points for getting within 1 vote, 3 points for getting within 2 votes, 1 point for getting within 3 votes] 2 Bonus Question 4: How many points will Azerbaijan score? [10 points for getting the exact amount, 5 points for guessing within 5 points of it, 3 points for guessing within 10 points of it, 1 point for guessing within 20 points of it] 182 Bonus Question 5: Predict the bottom five positions of the final [60 points available - 5 points for each correct position, 3 points for being one position off, 1 point for being two positions off; extra 10 points if you predict all the members correctly regardless of order] 21 - Germany 22 - Portugal 23 - Denmark 24 - Lithuania 25 - Croatia Disclaimer: I've only heard the acts in the qualifiers, except for Russia.

I put a relatively big bet on Ukraine at 28:1. (I don't have money at betfair.com for the 30:1.) What do you think of Turkey at 27:2 or 10:1? Edit: I'm no expert on Eurovision betting, but I do know something about sports betting, and it is indeed possible to hurt the bookies badly when they offer such big odds on these sorts of things. Like, I got the (American Football) Rams at 250:1 when they won the Superbowl in their miracle year, and more impressively I got the Rams at big odds to win their division after a few games had been played and it was already a near mathematical certainty that they would win their division. I had built a computer simulation for the American Football season, so it was easy for me to spot their mistakes.

Ukraine's odds now at 25/1 on William Hill, but 30/1 at betfair.com.

Overrated: Norway's fairy tale is way overrated and tries too hard to be universally acceptable. I've only heard it twice, not counting what might have slipped through on the radio, so I'm not burned out on it. I found it more palatable the second time, so if others feel the same way it could win in the voting, but I fear I'll quickly be sick of hearing it. Meanwhile, I don't understand the love of Romania's song. It's not a good song. Some slinky Romanian girls with suggestive lyrics isn't enough to save what is a very bland song. Also Greece. It's the only song I hated that made it through the qualifier. Underrated: Armenia's song is hated by some but with a little better singing it could be great. Sweden takes a lot of flack at least here, but the singing was great. Save your wrath for the groups that have neither a good song nor good singing, like Czech Republic.

I think Xylem was mostly responding to (Australian) Silas. Silas slammed Armenia and a couple other "ethnic" entries, but on the other hand, Silas also highly praised Turkey, Romania, and some other "ethnic" entries. Dare I ask... what is puddling and why do Australian women do it?

Norway has the Scandinavian block vote, plus votes from Belarus and other Eastern countries due to the performer and sound, plus votes from the hype and song exposure. I think this will result in a steady influx of 8's, 10's, and 12's, rarely getting less. That may be a winning formula, though I'm really hoping for Turkey. I'll be surprised if the winner is not one of Norway, Turkey, or Ukraine.

My thought was, "My gods, do all the women in Albania have such long legs?" It was probably mostly an illusion of the high heels and uplifted dress, but in any case, I thought she looked hot.

1. Andorra 2. Serbia 3. FYR Macedonia 4. Slovenia 5. Ireland 6. Belgium 7. Switzerland 8. Poland 9. Latvia 10. Belarus 11. Montenegro 12. Cyprus 13. Slovakia 14. Hungary 15. Netherlands 16. Czech Republic 17. Bulgaria It's a hard choice between Bulgaria and Czech Republic for the worst. The qualifiers were pretty much in line with my expectations, so nothing that I loved is on this list.

I have a question about Ukraine and the live vocals rule. I read on Wikipedia that all vocals must be live. Even the backing vocals cannot be from a recording. I was very impressed that Svetlana Loboda was able to keep singing while being hoisted by the Spartans. But then when she was playing drums, the vocals continued and she didn't seem to be singing at first. Were these vocals really live? Was there another woman on stage that I didn't notice or what?

An act in the local Malta competition in 2006 won after being allowed to perform twice, due to slight technical problems during the first performance. It could have just been a coincidence that this act won its country. However, it was a very bad act, and since then I've always suspected that performing twice is an advantage. About the Big Four, I don't understand these financial strings. I mean, why is one of the most watched TV programs in the world so unprofitable that four countries must contribute to keep it afloat? This should be a huge cash cow, between advertising, marketing and ticket sales. In America, if there was a problem getting ad revenue from, say, Belarus' broadcasting company, what we'd do is to have the hosts inject advertisements in the contest itself. "And just one more vote to reveal, but first, Palmolive dishwashing detergent, it softens your hands while you do the dishes." Well, it can be done more smoothly, but you get the idea. Another thing I don't understand is why countries sometimes don't want to be the host nation. Don't they want millions of dollars, er, euros, er, rubles, in tourism income? It's not just the people who come to the contest - it's the publicity that will result in future tourists. Perhaps more of the program could be dedicated to promoting the host nation's tourism.

I say Greece. It's Western, and it stunk.

In May of 2008, I was planning a vacation to Georgia. I had to cancel the vacation, because Russia was building up tanks on the border of Georgia in an apparent preparation to attack. So frak Russia for deciding to kill lots of people and spoil my vacation plans, m'kay?

America gives its points as follows: 12 Ukraine 10 Azerbaijan 8 Norway :)

I'm a big fan of Svetlana Loboda, so maybe I'm biased, but 10/10 for Ukraine! That was awesome! To be sure, it's not one of her better songs, but that performance was off the hook! Albania was quite good. The bridge with the Eastern sound put it over the top for me. Estonia is fine, but suffers after Ukraine.

The Lithuania song reminds me of Tears for Fears after they got more soulful (Songs from the Big Chair.) I thought the vocals were off during the key change and not that great overall, but the song is good. Greece was down with the rest of the dregs: Cyprus and Slovakia.

Whoo! Go Azerbaijan! That was great, albeit a little too pop for my tastes. The woman helps.

For Hungary, maybe acrobatics and singing aren't such a good combination. For Slovenia, the slow introduction should have been a magic trick, but definitely above average.

Cyprus crashed and burned with bad vocals. Norway was good, but I prefer Turkey. I liked Serbia, but the vocals were bad.

The New York Times, February 16, 2008: Russia held a high-level meeting with the leaders of two breakaway republics in Georgia on Friday, and vowed to increase its support for the separatists if Kosovo declared its independence and was recognized by the West. So, it was tit-for-tat. Russia interfered in Georgia because the U.S. and E.U. recognized Kosovo. It was retaliation against the West, not against Georgia. And please. I watch your Russian news. It's laughable.

Oh wow, Ukraine has Svetlana Loboda?! I bought a couple of her CD's when I went to Ukraine. She's very popular in Ukraine and also known in other countries. As for the video, as I say in ex-USSR countries, "respect no woman who does NOT wear her boots above the knee." :wub:

In a USSR survey from 1989, asked what to do with homosexuals, Soviet citizens replied: 33% shoot them 30% imprison them 30% subject them to forced medical treatment 6% leave them alone / offer assistance reference: http://books.google.com/books?id=DgGjOjRQA...PA8&lpg=PA8

Yeah, maybe if it was just three countries performing it wouldn't matter, but with 18-25 countries, I start to forget countries by the end.

Georgia's "We Don't Wanna Put In" has the lyrics for the chorus: We don't wanna put in, The negative move, It's killin' the groove, I'm gonna try to shoot in, Some disco tonight, Boogie with you. Okay, the "We don't want a Putin" is obvious, but what about the "shoot" line? Did it mean "I'm gonna try to shoot him"? I think so. Many English accented people would pronounce it "shoot 'im", so it's at least hard to distinguish "him" from "in" there. Once you add "some disco tonight," the meaning becomes "I'm gonna try to shoot in... some disco tonight," but it feels like a fake out similar to the "put in", which clearly means Putin but yet it means "put in" once you get the rest of the sentence, "We don't wanna put in... the negative move." There's also some subtle pronunciation here, with "put in" pronounced like "Putin" and I hear "in" pronounced like "'im". Finally, there's the video with the pantomimed guns to their heads, pulling the triggers and dying, reinforcing that it really means "shoot" like *gun*, not "shoot" like *interject*. Anyway, my point is, the perceived or implied threat to Putin's life is way too aggressive for Eurovision. I'm sympathetic and relatively knowledgeable (for an American) about Georgia's plight as a country; I had to cancel my planned tourist trip to Georgia a couple of months before Russia's attack, because I was following the political situation closely for my own safety and I could see the warning signs of an impending attack. But this song crosses the line for me. On the other hand, Georgia may have achieved the best possible political effect here - even better than winning Eurovision. Most people won't hear the song and will only hear that Georgia was disqualified. The commentators in the country where I saw the first night of Eurovision were saying that Georgia would not have been disqualified if the Eurovision 2009 had been in any country other than Russia. I don't agree with that, but I'm saying that's a widespread perception that may serve Georgia as a country. Georgia's entry is a great song, though.