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 BJSC XLI: Odds |
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 7th February 2012, 12:52 AM
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#241
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 musing
Joined: 5 June 2011
Posts: 6,260 User: 13,969 
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QUOTE(Ghosthunter @ Feb 6 2012, 03:48 PM)  Odds to win from Bwci-Fyrddin: 3/1 Syndare - SoSo - Who's gonna love me  Nice to have a bit of attention back having slipped down everyone else's odds!  
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7th February 2012, 05:32 PM
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#242
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 21 January 2007
Posts: 23,878 User: 2,666
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BotaBet odds for XLI.
2/1 Numayania - The Storm - My crown 5/2 Ramrynia - Carly Rae Jepsen - Call me maybe 5/2 Ashton - Tone Damli - Look back 3/1 Fljótavík - Foxes - Youth -------------------------------------------------- 5/1 Caerfyrddia – Marigold – You and I know 11/2 Syndare - SoSo - Who's gonna love me 6/1 FSR Rontvia - Prance Faris - Flares 7/1 Unovia - Dia Frampton - Billy the Kid 12/1 Botanikka - Ria Ritchie - Only one 14/1 Batidas - Studio Killers - Ode to the bouncer 16/1 FYR Vojvodina-On-The-Wold - Le Kid - Human behaviour 18/1 Kopečka - Lena Philipsson - Live tomorrow (Sthlm Mix) 20/1 Séyetana - Nightwish - Turn loose the mermaids 22/1 Sangria - Moonlight Breakfast - Still 24/1 N-Lazone - Ian Carey & Rosette feat. Timbaland & Brasco - Amnesia 26/1 Budtar – Marvin Priest feat. Wynter Gordon – Take me away 28/1 Hendinia - DJ Tatana feat Natalia Kills - You can't get in my head (if you don't get in my bed) 30/1 ChrIseland - Donkeyboy - City boy 32/1 Mdiče - MNDR - #1 in heaven 35/1 Espen - Moa Lignell - When I held ya 35/1 Tinnmark - Andremo feat. Coco - Music is turning me on 38/1 Greenfroze - Belanova - Mariposas 40/1 Lievant - Mollyhaus feat. Little Neve White & The Snoopy Lads - Liar liar 44/1 Kluminican Republic - Paulina Rubio - Heat of the night 45/1 Daehun – moumoon – Sunshine girl 45/1 Allecian - Mercedes and I - Wintersnow 50/1 Bignia-Zaragovina - Britt Daley - One and only 50/1 B.a.N.G - Lydia Caesar - Lottery 52/1 Scherzland - Vox Halo feat. LaDolla - Criminal 110/2 Kylienips - School of Seven Bells - The night 60/1 Hogan-Burg Republic - Emily Osment - All the way up We believe that one of the top 4 odds will have the crown  of XLI
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7th February 2012, 06:36 PM
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#243
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 7,088 User: 9,886
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5/1
Wow!
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7th February 2012, 07:45 PM
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#244
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 Mansonette
Joined: 7 March 2006
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I'm struggling to see past an Ashton victory now as it just seems to be in contention for about 10 people's 12 points slot, if I were to do odds then their entry would be pretty much evens.
To be honest I'm kind of disappointed too, primarily as at the beginning this looked like the first contest in a while where there were genuinely about 10 contenders... although at least there's still about 9 tracks in contention for 2nd. 
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7th February 2012, 07:48 PM
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#245
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bye dinner
Joined: 12 February 2011
Posts: 14,105 User: 12,972
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Off topic but I thought Tone Damli was Ashley Tisdale in Phil's avatar, only to realize now it isn't. Should've known better
 Also, is it just me or a part of the song sounds like David Guetta's When Love Takes Over starting at 2:26. This post has been edited by Oricon: 7th February 2012, 07:52 PM |
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7th February 2012, 07:50 PM
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#246
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
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QUOTE(Dandy* @ Feb 7 2012, 07:45 PM) I'm struggling to see past an Ashton victory now as it just seems to be in contention for about 10 people's 12 points slot, if I were to do odds then their entry would be pretty much evens. To be honest I'm kind of disappointed too, primarily as at the beginning this looked like the first contest in a while where there were genuinely about 10 contenders... although at least there's still about 9 tracks in contention for 2nd. This is why I think they're walking it. How often do people venture purposely into somebody's national thread to say how great their entry is during the voting stage. Very rarely, and they're clearly all handing it a 12 on a plate along with the people who said similar things about it in a number of other threads...Looks like it's on course to comfortably be our most successful winner in a while. Although we differ in that I'd be quite happy with that outcome! The other songs that are at the top of people's odds don't even have a tenth of the buzz surrounding them or general vocal support, so I just don't see how they can overcome Look Back, unless their supporters are all keeping deathly silent! Odds are so much easier to call the closer we get to the results, we're not allowed to give away our exact points but most people basically reveal their 12 in a roundabout way, either during the semi results or by waltzing into somebody's national thread to gush over their entry! |
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7th February 2012, 07:56 PM
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#247
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 1 March 2009
Posts: 2,924 User: 8,394
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7th February 2012, 07:59 PM
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#248
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Mansonette
Joined: 7 March 2006
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I bet it's weird seeing all of our speculation whilst knowing the semi results and how the final voting has gone so far.
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7th February 2012, 08:01 PM
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#249
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 1 March 2009
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QUOTE(Dandy* @ Feb 7 2012, 08:59 PM) I bet it's weird seeing all of our speculation whilst knowing the semi results and how the final voting has gone so far. It is weird, indeed But it's also quite fun! 
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7th February 2012, 08:05 PM
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#250
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Mansonette
Joined: 7 March 2006
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Feb 7 2012, 07:50 PM) This is why I think they're walking it. How often do people venture purposely into somebody's national thread to say how great their entry is during the voting stage. Very rarely, and they're clearly all handing it a 12 on a plate along with the people who said similar things about it in a number of other threads...Looks like it's on course to comfortably be our most successful winner in a while. Although we differ in that I'd be quite happy with that outcome! The other songs that are at the top of people's odds don't even have a tenth of the buzz surrounding them or general vocal support, so I just don't see how they can overcome Look Back, unless their supporters are all keeping deathly silent! Odds are so much easier to call the closer we get to the results, we're not allowed to give away our exact points but most people basically reveal their 12 in a roundabout way, either during the semi results or by waltzing into somebody's national thread to gush over their entry! Oh I'm not specifically against an Ashton victory (although the track isn't totally to my taste, I guess that much would be obvious to all!), it's more that I was hoping for a close and exciting results thread. I agree with you, it would take all the silent voters (like me!) to all love the same track for anything to stand a chance - and that's clearly very unlikely indeed. |
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7th February 2012, 08:14 PM
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#251
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,217 User: 116
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QUOTE(Dandy* @ Feb 7 2012, 08:05 PM) Oh I'm not specifically against an Ashton victory (although the track isn't totally to my taste, I guess that much would be obvious to all!), it's more that I was hoping for a close and exciting results thread. I agree with you, it would take all the silent voters (like me!) to all love the same track for anything to stand a chance - and that's clearly very unlikely indeed. And there's nothing to say that the silent voters won't all be loving Look Back too  I'm seeing a Sheelah situation here, The Last Time won exactly a year ago by basically appealing massively to those that loved it. Most of the people that voted for it (which was around two thirds of the voters, so a clear majority) placed it in their top three, it picked up very few 1's and 2's in comparisons to 18's, 15's and 12's, which was the voting system at the time.Based on the overwhelming vocal support that it's attracted thus far, I can see Look Back appearing in the top three or thereabouts of nearly everyone that decides to vote for it - which by the sounds of it could be most people here! |
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7th February 2012, 08:19 PM
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#252
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eat hot chip, be homosexual
Joined: 29 August 2008
Posts: 45,109 User: 6,946
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QUOTE(Addy K!ng @ Feb 7 2012, 05:32 PM) BotaBet odds for XLI. 2/1 Numayania - The Storm - My crown We believe that one of the top 4 odds will have the crown of XLIOMG Falënderim I still think this is a three horse race between Syndare, Ramryina and Ashton though. I might do more odds later, if I can be bothered
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7th February 2012, 08:22 PM
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#253
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Sundream
Joined: 31 December 2009
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QUOTE(Dandy* @ Feb 7 2012, 07:59 PM) I bet it's weird seeing all of our speculation whilst knowing the semi results and how the final voting has gone so far. It was interesting when I hosted BJSC and most people made an early prediction for Le Kid 'America' to dominate the entire contest yet it didn't come anywhere near close. I do wonder if all this hype around 'Look Back' will lead to an anti climax and it actually does end up coming 2nd behind another track that hasn't had as much vocal support but is generally popular with the vast majority of voters.
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7th February 2012, 08:33 PM
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#254
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,217 User: 116
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QUOTE(Tom Titanium Kay @ Feb 7 2012, 08:19 PM) OMG Falënderim I still think this is a three horse race between Syndare, Ramryina and Ashton though. I might do more odds later, if I can be bothered A THREE horse race? Here's how I see it;  |
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7th February 2012, 08:34 PM
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#255
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 Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
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I'd rather stall into 3rd thank you! I already have a 2nd and I need a 3rd to complete my top5 set
 I'm still not expecting to win at all. The only reason it's at 1/3 in my odds is that it does have a large amount of vocal support (far more than any of my 40 previous entries, quite possibly combined) and the momentum its gained thanks to people falling in love with a track I adore and sheer speculation that it won SF1. That alone seems to be driving most of the songs momentum. |
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7th February 2012, 08:34 PM
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#256
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Feb 7 2012, 08:33 PM) A THREE horse race? Here's how I see it;  That's great!! Hopefully Ramrynia can find a last minute speed boost
This post has been edited by Ryan741: 7th February 2012, 08:36 PM |
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7th February 2012, 08:36 PM
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#257
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Sundream
Joined: 31 December 2009
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If you zoom in 400% in that picture you can just about make out an arrow with the word "Batidas" written above it.
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7th February 2012, 08:36 PM
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#258
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#TeamAnneMarie
Joined: 3 July 2010
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Finally listened to 'Look Back' to see what the hype was all about. Very overrated. 'Call Me Maybe' is far superior in terms of fempop in this contest. I think it's because the earlier odds had it at/near the top and people have been influenced by those odds.
I'm not going to do a set of odds, but I think it will be inbetween Fljotavik, FSR Rontvia, Ramyrnia and Syndare for the win!
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7th February 2012, 08:38 PM
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#259
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Feb 7 2012, 08:33 PM) A THREE horse race? Here's how I see it; HA! That's epic. I personally see it as Ashton, FSR Rontvia, Ramrynia and Fljótavík as the contenders. Me for the obvious reasons, You because Flares is incredible, Ramrynia for being the early favourite and the sheer number of people that wanted the song and Fljótavík for entering a great track that actually has cross over appeal to the pure pop fans (and we all know that indiepop does well). |
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7th February 2012, 08:41 PM
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#260
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,217 User: 116
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QUOTE(Klumzee @ Feb 7 2012, 08:36 PM) Finally listened to 'Look Back' to see what the hype was all about. Very overrated. 'Call Me Maybe' is far superior in terms of fempop in this contest. I think it's because the earlier odds had it at/near the top and people have been influenced by those odds. I'm not going to do a set of odds, but I think it will be inbetween Fljotavik, FSR Rontvia, Ramyrnia and Syndare for the win! I've not been influenced by anybody's odds when estimating how well Look Back will do, moreso the 15 or so people who like it so much that they've been screaming it from the rooftops across the forum. 150+ points potentially bagged right there without even taking the other 30 odd voting countries into account. |
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