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 BJSC XLI: Odds |
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 7th February 2012, 08:48 PM
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#261
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 Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,228 User: 3,474 
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QUOTE(Klumzee @ Feb 7 2012, 08:36 PM)  Finally listened to 'Look Back' to see what the hype was all about. Very overrated. 'Call Me Maybe' is far superior in terms of fempop in this contest. I think it's because the earlier odds had it at/near the top and people have been influenced by those odds. I'm not going to do a set of odds, but I think it will be inbetween Fljotavik, FSR Rontvia, Ramyrnia and Syndare for the win!  *bans Klumzee* *considers banning Oricon for mixing up Tone 'GODDESS' Damli with The Tis, decided to await outcome of Deahun votes before banning*  Lol, being serious for a second. I really hate hype for this reason. Mind you last time my track was labelled overrated it was done so unfairly as only 3 people actually said they through it was good. Me, Rich and Tyron. I have no problem with people not liking my track as much as others. I only care that I (hopefully) introduced a great song by a fantastic artist to someone. That's the reasoning behind all my entries and will always be. People haven't been influenced by the odds or Call Me Maybe would still be on top, I think they are driven by the belief that Look Back is the song that kicked SF1's ass. In which case, statistically the song that won SF1 by that amount would be favourite to walk the whole thing. |
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7th February 2012, 08:49 PM
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#262
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,228 User: 3,474
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IF
And that is a very big if, Look back does happen to be the song that won SF1 with 144 points, that would be roughly the same amount of points Jag Kommer got on it's way to 2nd. |
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7th February 2012, 08:52 PM
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#263
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 Sundream
Joined: 31 December 2009
Posts: 14,361 User: 10,347
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QUOTE(Silas @ Feb 7 2012, 08:49 PM) IF And that is a very big if, Look back does happen to be the song that won SF1 with 144 points, that would be roughly the same amount of points Jag Kommer got on it's way to 2nd. ...and 13 points less than what 'Riverside' collected when I won BJSC.  I know there are a few more countries taking part this month but 144 points in SF1 is still incredible regardless. Edit; Charice 'Louder' won BJSC with 146 points!!! 
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7th February 2012, 08:56 PM
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#264
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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144 points is fantastic and I understand why it is the favourite! However, remember the SF2 winner still got 133 (something like that) which is too far off - that could have been a number of countries - possibly Syndare or Fljotavik (or Ramrynia I guess, but I don't think it'd manage to do that well) based on the odds.
Saying that, I do think Ashton is the favourite with FSR Rontvia, Numayania, Syndare, Fljotavik and Ramrynia (according to others' odds) chasing behind as may people have said 
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7th February 2012, 08:58 PM
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#265
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,228 User: 3,474
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QUOTE(Hitstastic @ Feb 7 2012, 08:52 PM) ...and 13 points less than what 'Riverside' collected when I won BJSC. I know there are a few more countries taking part this month but 144 points in SF1 is still incredible regardless. Edit; Charice 'Louder' won BJSC with 148 points!!! Butterflies won SF2 in BJSC XX with 98 points. (Took 160 in the final en route to 4th) 144 is one point less than Loreen took (in the semi, 210 in final) when Sober whitewashed the competition and is the 5th highest amount of points scored in a semi-final in BJSC history. |
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7th February 2012, 08:59 PM
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#266
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Sundream
Joined: 31 December 2009
Posts: 14,361 User: 10,347
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QUOTE(Ryan741 @ Feb 7 2012, 08:56 PM) Saying that, I do think Ashton is the favourite with FSR Rontvia, Numayania, Syndare, Fljotavik and Ramrynia (according to others' odds) chasing behind as may people have said Unless I've misunderstood you, I don't think that's quite how odds work. I don't think Fljotavik will regard 'Look Back' as their personal fave entry. Possibly Syndare as well. FSR Rontvia and Numayania are guaranteed 12s though I predict. My odds are based on what I think will be popular and doesn't reflect which songs I like the most - although it's safe to say that my main faves are amongst the big contenders this month anyways.
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7th February 2012, 09:02 PM
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#267
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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QUOTE(Hitstastic @ Feb 7 2012, 08:59 PM) Unless I've misunderstood you, I don't think that's quite how odds work. I don't think Fljotavik will regard 'Look Back' as their personal fave entry. Possibly Syndare as well. My odds are based on what I think will be popular and doesn't reflect which songs I like the most - although it's safe to say that my main faves are amongst the big contenders this month anyways. No, I know how odds work. I'm just basing what I said on what other people think are popular as I'm not experienced enough in the contest to have as good an idea as others That's why I said that seeing as Syndare, Fljotavik etc. are towards the top of people's odds, so they must think it does have a good chance of winning overall EDIT: I don't know if you interpreted what I said that I think Ashton will be Fljotavik etc. personal favourites - I think I phrased my sentence badly
This post has been edited by Ryan741: 7th February 2012, 09:04 PM |
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7th February 2012, 09:05 PM
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#268
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"Everything seems different the second time around."
Joined: 10 April 2008
Posts: 8,723 User: 5,830
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I'm 24 songs into my voting and have found many songs that I love (Look Back may or may not be one of them.
 ), I can't wait for the results to unfold. I'd imagine, Rontvia, Batidas and Unovia (just off the top of my head) will be amongst the front runners though!
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7th February 2012, 09:05 PM
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#269
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Sundream
Joined: 31 December 2009
Posts: 14,361 User: 10,347
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QUOTE(Silas @ Feb 7 2012, 08:58 PM) 144 is one point less than Loreen took (in the semi, 210 in final) when Sober whitewashed the competition and is the 5th highest amount of points scored in a semi-final in BJSC history. What are the 4 most successful semi final entries in terms of most points collected? |
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7th February 2012, 09:06 PM
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#270
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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Here's my rephrased sentence!
Saying that, I do think Ashton is the favourite. Then FSR Rontvia, Numayania, Syndare, Fljotavik and Ramrynia chasing behind due to being popular with several odds indicating that their tracks are popular Does that make better sense? This post has been edited by Ryan741: 7th February 2012, 09:07 PM |
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7th February 2012, 09:07 PM
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#271
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Sundream
Joined: 31 December 2009
Posts: 14,361 User: 10,347
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QUOTE(Ryan741 @ Feb 7 2012, 09:02 PM) EDIT: I don't know if you interpreted what I said that I think Ashton will be Fljotavik etc. personal favourites - I think I phrased my sentence badly Yep!!! That's how I read it.   I understand what you mean now. 
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7th February 2012, 09:08 PM
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#272
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 23 December 2010
Posts: 24,411 User: 12,608
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QUOTE(Hitstastic @ Feb 7 2012, 09:07 PM) Yep!!! That's how I read it. I understand what you mean now. I read myself afterwards and interpreted the same way you did - I need to improve my English 
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7th February 2012, 09:15 PM
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#273
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,228 User: 3,474
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QUOTE(Hitstastic @ Feb 7 2012, 09:05 PM) What are the 4 most successful semi final entries in terms of most points collected? BJSC V: 01: Eledan - t.A.T.u - Gomenasai - 114 [SF1 // 155] (The single semi/10AQ's/Final system was vastly different back then. All 10AQ's voted in the semi so the points were more concentrated than in the final, hence the 41point drop) BJSX XV: 01: Mdiče - Röyksopp; Robyn - The Girl And The Robot - 207 [SF1: 1 // 157] BJSC XVII: 02: M.K.L - Livvi Franc – Now I’m That Bitch [Nevins Rhythmic Remix] – 179 [SF2: 1 // 152] (Beaten by Robots In Love//FSR Rontvia who won SF1) BJSC XXXVIII: 01 .: 202 :. Kopečka // Loreen - Sober [SF2: 1 // 145] (4% Deduction - Originally 210) There is a pattern emerging there. |
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7th February 2012, 09:19 PM
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#274
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#TeamAnneMarie
Joined: 3 July 2010
Posts: 18,278 User: 11,421
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But that's all assuming that Look Back won SF1. If it was revealed it had done, then I would perfectly understand where all the hype is coming from, but it seems that people are just getting carried away with the idea.
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7th February 2012, 09:22 PM
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#275
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,228 User: 3,474
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QUOTE(Silas @ Feb 7 2012, 08:49 PM) IF And that is a very big if, Look back does happen to be the song that won SF1 with 144 points, that would be roughly the same amount of points Jag Kommer got on it's way to 2nd. QUOTE(Klumzee @ Feb 7 2012, 09:19 PM) But that's all assuming that Look Back won SF1. If it was revealed it had done, then I would perfectly understand where all the hype is coming from, but it seems that people are just getting carried away with the idea. Assumption already noted. Despite much claiming it is Look Back that won SF1, I still don't believe it's my entry. (Although that may be because I'm still placing Ashton as a tier 2 country) |
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7th February 2012, 09:23 PM
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#276
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Sundream
Joined: 31 December 2009
Posts: 14,361 User: 10,347
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QUOTE(Klumzee @ Feb 7 2012, 09:19 PM) But that's all assuming that Look Back won SF1. If it was revealed it had done, then I would perfectly understand where all the hype is coming from, but it seems that people are just getting carried away with the idea. This is true. For all we know Freeze might be reading all this discussion and just LOLing at how wrong we all are.
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7th February 2012, 09:32 PM
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#277
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bye dinner
Joined: 12 February 2011
Posts: 14,105 User: 12,972
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My votes are being delayed for ONE reason and it's related to ASHTON.
Look Back was rubbish at first listen and then it grew hence I gave it some points in the semi. And then it got overshadowed by other tracks once the final began with quality tracks in Semi 2. Finally at this point, it's growing too fast on me that I'm confused on how to allocate points or not on the track as I'm afraid that it might grow off me again. What to do..
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7th February 2012, 09:39 PM
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#278
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,228 User: 3,474
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It's growing too fast and growing off you?
 Not entirely sure what you mean there.I say just give it the 12 I do have a vested interest though so I may be slightly bias.
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7th February 2012, 09:52 PM
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#279
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bye dinner
Joined: 12 February 2011
Posts: 14,105 User: 12,972
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Yes, you know you're getting to a point where u overplay something to the max and then liking it too much that it might kill it for you
I think I'll just vote last minute on how I feel about it tbh This post has been edited by Oricon: 7th February 2012, 09:57 PM |
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7th February 2012, 09:53 PM
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#280
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Infamy Infamy they all got it in for me
Joined: 5 March 2006
Posts: 129,149 User: 2
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Feb 7 2012, 08:33 PM) A THREE horse race? Here's how I see it;  HA, Kylienips last
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