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 OPINION POLLS 2018-2022, Strong and stable... |
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 11th December 2019, 10:06 PM
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#1181
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 Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,135 User: 4,718 
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QUOTE(Michael Bubré @ Dec 11 2019, 11:03 PM)  It doesn't look like there are any polls today showing the Tories pulling further ahead at least? Opinium has Labour gaining 3 on the Tories as well and the rest are no change. But absolutely, the hope is for Labour to beat all of the polls, it's just a very small encouraging sign that the best poll Labour have had all campaign was as late as today. This is true. I'm more pushing against it because I can't deal with optimism right now rather than any serious conviction that I know what will happen. And yeah, I worded my post a bit ambiguously - polls today and yesterday show the Tories maintaining their lead rather than pulling ahead. |
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11th December 2019, 10:06 PM
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#1182
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 ❤️❤️➕🟦
Joined: 3 June 2012
Posts: 22,246 User: 17,160
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I hope at least David Guake or Dominic Grieve take their seats from the Conservatives
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11th December 2019, 10:08 PM
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#1183
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,135 User: 4,718
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 11 2019, 11:05 PM) There's no such thing as voting "properly" though. Who can say whether a Tory or Labour administration's right for the country at this time. That's right. Nobody from any side of the arguments can believe which is the right choice to make. There's simply no way of knowing which is better. (on that note, I feel like the Tories have really secured the nihilist vote) |
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11th December 2019, 10:09 PM
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#1184
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,164 User: 8,300
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QUOTE(Harve @ Dec 11 2019, 10:06 PM) This is true. I'm more pushing against it because I can't deal with optimism right now rather than any serious conviction that I know what will happen. And yeah, I worded my post a bit ambiguously - polls today and yesterday show the Tories maintaining their lead rather than pulling ahead. I do agree. I'm being too enthusiastic. x |
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11th December 2019, 10:11 PM
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#1185
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Just spoken to my cousin in Penistone and he's gobsmacked that it's tipped to go Tory. He said "Wasn't going to vote but I'll go first thing and vote Labour then"
Electoral Calculus is either down or very busy, keeps timing out. This post has been edited by Crazy Chris-tmas: 11th December 2019, 10:12 PM |
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11th December 2019, 10:13 PM
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#1186
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,135 User: 4,718
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 11 2019, 11:11 PM) Just spoken to my cousin in Penistone and he's gobsmacked that it's tipped to go Tory. He said "Wasn't going to vote but I'll go first thing and vote Labour then" Thankyou for your service to the Labour Party x |
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11th December 2019, 10:16 PM
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#1187
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 15 March 2006
Posts: 48,140 User: 223
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Am I stupid to feel optimistic about this election?
Every other thing I've predicted correctly - the last two Tory elections, leaving the EU and Trump getting in power (not UK, I know, but still) when everyone seemed to think at the time for them that they would be the opposite - especially for Brexit / Trump and the first election when Tory got in power. Maybe I should go back to being pessimistic and not have my hopes up like usual. |
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11th December 2019, 10:26 PM
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#1188
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Harve @ Dec 11 2019, 10:13 PM) Thankyou for your service to the Labour Party x LOL. 
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11th December 2019, 10:27 PM
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#1189
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,776 User: 10,455
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QUOTE(Harve @ Dec 11 2019, 11:03 PM) My prediction is: 1 Claire Wright This is one that I'm surprised I've never heard about until now (I like to see who outside the main parties do well) - I see she got 21,000 votes as an independent candidate in the last election, which is more votes than some people who got elected got in 2017. YouGov has it as a tossup, so she could take Lady Hernon's place as the only elected independent MP in the next Parliament. |
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11th December 2019, 10:28 PM
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#1190
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Attack Dog/Sass Queen
Joined: 29 January 2008
Posts: 16,025 User: 5,342
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I so don't want to hope for it but god dammit I can't help myself.
From what I've seen there does seem to be *some* evidence that there's been an uptick in the late deciders - 2017 was the first UK election where there was a big drop in the undecideds co-inciding with a major upswing behind one party but does lightning strike twice? (that's basically what we've been thinking all election isn't it Gonna cheat and give two answers to the Seat Predictions If Conservative Majority CON 336 LAB 242 SNP 40 LD 9 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 1 If Hung Parliament CON 306 LAB 252 SNP 48 LD 20 Plaid Cymru 4 Green 1 Claire Wright 1 DUP 7 Sinn Fein 7 SDLP 2 Alliance 2 TLDR: If the Tories have a majority it will be more or less a RuMix of the 2015 results and if it's a hung Parliament it'll be to such a point where Labour are the only viable leaders of a Rainbow/Patchwork Government of all the progressive parties. |
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11th December 2019, 10:40 PM
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#1191
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,373 User: 23,471
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QUOTE(Harve @ Dec 11 2019, 10:06 PM) This is true. I'm more pushing against it because I can't deal with optimism right now rather than any serious conviction that I know what will happen. This is exactly how I feel. The thought of letting hope and optimism in at this late stage, only for it to be completely ripped from me tomorrow evening — no thanks. |
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11th December 2019, 11:21 PM
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#1192
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,239 User: 18,639
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I hate the Tories with a passion.
I agree with LexChristmas' predictions - either 2015 or 2017, with Labour the winner this time. My Mystic Meg senses are tingling around 305-308 Tories. |
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11th December 2019, 11:22 PM
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#1193
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,211 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 11 2019, 09:38 PM) Many Barnsley people would rather die than vote Tory though Steve. Mining town and they remember Thatcher and the miners strike of '84-'85. You'd be lynched if you went in a pub and mentioned her name there.  Hatred of the Tories has passed down through the generations. Bit like The Sun in Liverpool.Well this is giving me some hope. 36% is the highest we've seen for labour but this is STILL 3/4% off the 2017 total which labour still didn't win. |
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11th December 2019, 11:23 PM
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#1194
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,239 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 11 2019, 10:11 PM) Just spoken to my cousin in Penistone and he's gobsmacked that it's tipped to go Tory. He said "Wasn't going to vote but I'll go first thing and vote Labour then" Electoral Calculus is either down or very busy, keeps timing out. Thank you for your service to the Labour Party x |
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11th December 2019, 11:26 PM
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#1195
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,239 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 11 2019, 11:22 PM) Well this is giving me some hope. 36% is the highest we've seen for labour but this is STILL 3/4% off the 2017 total which labour still didn't win. The final polls of 2017 were all FAR more secure for the Tories than these ones. Keep the faith. All we want for Christmas is JC for PM and to get the evil Tories out! |
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11th December 2019, 11:38 PM
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#1196
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,211 User: 5,138
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What was the final poll in 2017 out of interest - the exit poll that day in June 2017 was one of the greatest moments of my political life!!
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11th December 2019, 11:38 PM
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#1197
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,239 User: 18,639
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It predicted the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher lol. Oh, and there was not muvh worry about tactical voting and the like. It was more secure. Rememeber: MILLIONS of young and first time voters plud shy Labourites are out there and unaccounted for by these polls - and more so thsn last time. Let's just hope people aren't treating this like a second brexshit referendum
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11th December 2019, 11:43 PM
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#1198
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(December Dong @ Dec 11 2019, 11:38 PM) Let's just hope people aren't treating this like a second brexshit referendum I think many are Michael. |
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11th December 2019, 11:48 PM
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#1199
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,211 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(December Dong @ Dec 11 2019, 11:38 PM) It predicted the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher lol. Oh, and there was not muvh worry about tactical voting and the like. It was more secure. Rememeber: MILLIONS of young and first time voters plud shy Labourites are out there and unaccounted for by these polls - and more so thsn last time. Let's just hope people aren't treating this like a second brexshit referendum They didn't predict a landslide the day before the poll they knew it was closer they just didn't predict the gains in the south of England and the safe Tory seats that became marginals. |
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11th December 2019, 11:53 PM
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#1200
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,239 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 11 2019, 11:43 PM) I think many are Michael. I think so too. This is a massive failure on the side of our media, but they knew what they were doing. |
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