Eurovision Song Contest 2024 · Model predictions |
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17th March 2024, 12:42 AM
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#1
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CROWN THE WITCH
Pronouns: he/they
Joined: 9 October 2018 Posts: 9,654 User: 77,363 |
Eurovoix is using big data to run a statistical model to predict which countries will qualify and which country will win
Here is the first prediction: https://eurovoix.com/2024/03/16/the-model-p...urovision-2024/ Feel free to use this thread to post any predictions from statistical models you've made x |
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17th March 2024, 01:07 AM
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#2
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,451 User: 18,639 |
It's WRONG San Marino is 50% to WIN and Italy the other 50% and we ALL know it!!!!
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17th March 2024, 02:33 AM
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#3
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 14 July 2013
Posts: 313 User: 19,535 |
Semi 2 looks about right but in semi 1 Serbia will be in over Ireland for sure
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17th March 2024, 12:08 PM
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#4
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,451 User: 18,639 |
Cha Cha Cha man should have released it this year, but his huge ego meant hr was obsessed with beating Loraine, ans he just fell flat on his face and made loads of bad feelin in the last contest
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17th March 2024, 12:27 PM
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#5
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Hello?
Joined: 8 March 2006
Posts: 83,209 User: 116 |
Very interesting, though my initial thoughts were that Netherlands will be top three easily in a televote semi and no way is every song getting 15 points or more.
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18th March 2024, 05:49 PM
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#6
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I'm in a vewy bad mood, Bwadley.
Joined: 24 September 2008
Posts: 35,905 User: 7,117 |
The model seems flawed in that it bases a lot off previous trends.
So, naturally, Croatia and Netherlands are WAY lower in the televote than they will end up. And if Tattoo is factored into their jury model, it also explains why they think Unforgettable will win the jury votes again. Which I highly doubt it will. |
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18th March 2024, 05:51 PM
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#7
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CROWN THE WITCH
Pronouns: he/they
Joined: 9 October 2018 Posts: 9,654 User: 77,363 |
It also skews heavily towards present odds, so it is not very representative atm
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18th March 2024, 06:08 PM
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#8
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Yes, it's me.
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 19,831 User: 9,885 |
Basically, rubbish.
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27th March 2024, 08:16 PM
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#9
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CROWN THE WITCH
Pronouns: he/they
Joined: 9 October 2018 Posts: 9,654 User: 77,363 |
New prediction released:
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19th April 2024, 07:13 PM
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#10
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CROWN THE WITCH
Pronouns: he/they
Joined: 9 October 2018 Posts: 9,654 User: 77,363 |
Some changes:
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26th April 2024, 06:45 AM
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#11
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Bitch of t seet
Joined: 2 April 2012
Posts: 27,410 User: 16,660 |
Malta ☠️☠️☠️☠️
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5th May 2024, 10:57 AM
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#12
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CROWN THE WITCH
Pronouns: he/they
Joined: 9 October 2018 Posts: 9,654 User: 77,363 |
Updated simulation after the rehearsals! A bit surprised to see Switzerland still predicted to win |
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5th May 2024, 11:08 AM
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#13
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Buzzjack's Finest Alcoholic.
Joined: 19 November 2011
Posts: 10,371 User: 15,367 |
Are Israel going to be anywhere near 11th in the televote?
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5th May 2024, 01:24 PM
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#14
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I'm in a vewy bad mood, Bwadley.
Joined: 24 September 2008
Posts: 35,905 User: 7,117 |
I'd be surprised if they weren't higher than 11th in the televote, to be honest. If they win the JURY however, that would be a travesty, good god.
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5th May 2024, 02:23 PM
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#15
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Yes, it's me.
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 19,831 User: 9,885 |
I can see Israel top 5 in the televote.
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Time is now: 21st May 2024, 06:02 PM |
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