European Election Thread 2019, EU, baby. |
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8th April 2019, 05:52 PM
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#1
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,788 User: 10,455 |
Given that it looks almost certain now that the United Kingdom is going to be taking part in the European Parliamentary elections on May 23rd, I thought that now is the time to open up a thread for the upcoming EU elections. This thread should be for discussion of the upcoming elections, with Brexit-based discussion remaining in the Brexit thread, although I'm sure there's going to be some overlap.
I'd be interested to hear the thoughts of members of Buzzjack who are outside the UK but within the EU on what the voting & atmosphere is like for the elections in your country, we've got some pan-European members, and I would very much would value your contributions. |
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9th April 2019, 04:06 AM
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#2
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,557 User: 12,929 |
Good point. I've started the process of setting up a proxy vote.
If these elections do take place in the UK they will almost certainly be fought along Brexit lines and will likely have the highest turnout for an EU election. They're also PR which means no tactical voting! So that means, in my opinion, there's very little reason to vote for a party not cemented on its Brexit strategy (like Labour). Assuming that these take place under the conditions of an extension, if you would like to ultimately Remain, you should vote Liberal Democrats or Green in England, and then Plaid or SNP in their respective areas. Not sure about NI. Of course, one should also consider what the MEPs actually do, and we definitely should not reward those who take huge salaries and end up doing very little, like UKIP's MEPs. So if you must base your vote on Leave, vote Conservative I guess. Then, after you've evaluated whether the MEPs in your area are suitable people for the job, it depends which big political grouping you want to see take charge, although I'm sure it will very likely end up with EPP as the largest, which the UK can't do anything about, cheers Cameron. I do love me some good electoral maths so I'm sure I'll end up following this closely even if the UK isn't taking part. |
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9th April 2019, 05:21 AM
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#3
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 |
The only think that feels certain is a high vote for UKIP from pissed-off Leavers.
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9th April 2019, 06:00 AM
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#4
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,557 User: 12,929 |
Not necessarily. If any Leavers have been paying attention to what MEPs do, they'll know how ineffectual the UKIP ones are at engaging with the European Parliament. UKIP have really lost their way in credibility.
There's also Farage's new party, the Brexit Party, how well that does I suspect will depend on his charisma and how much the media makes them a viable option, but it does provide an alternative to those disillusioned by UKIP. And then Conservatives will also be courting Leave votes very heavily. For which party gains the highest number of votes/MEPs I'd actually say it SEEMS like anyone's game. |
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9th April 2019, 08:51 PM
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#5
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,788 User: 10,455 |
The big story I imagine that will come out of these EU elections will be the much expected populist shift, with parties across Europe that had little or no representation in the prior parliament making significant gains, including Sweden Democrats, Afd in Germany, Lega in Italy, National Rally (and possibly En Marche!) in France, the Forum for Democracy in Netherlands (a party that didn't even exist 2 years ago, but won the 2019 provincial elections, taking the populist torch from Geert van Legohair's party), and Vox and Podemos in Spain, as well as populist movements in other, smaller countries. Interestingly, the only country that don't seem to have a populist party with a serious chance of winning seats is in the Republic of Ireland (although Peter Casey's result in the Irish Presidential election shows that even there, there is a market for populism).
As for the UK, it will be anyone's guess as to which party gains the most seats. Leavers could be drawn back to Ukip, which as I've mentioned before, has become a much more frightening beast since Batten took over. Nigel Farage's new party could get a few seats, and Remainers should be quietly hoping that he takes a bite out of Ukip's cherry (it is one of the strangest paradoxes in politics that the more popular Nigel Farage becomes, the greater the support for the EU). The European elections usually gives the chances of smaller parties their first opportunity to break through politically due to its PR system, as seen back in 2009 when the BNP won two seats, earning it a chair on that infamous edition of Question Time. This year (provided EU elections do happen in the EU), I can't see any parties having the same breakthrough, with the exception of the Brexit Party, and Change UK (although it will be interesting to see who they put up as election candidates - I wonder if any of their MPs will put their money where their mouth is in terms of their support of the EU by putting themselves forward for the lists at this election, and take their seats in the European Parliament if they win). Overall, with the amount of fragmentation, I think that it will be Labour that ends up with the most seats, albeit there won't be much in it between them and some of the other parties. In NI, it'll be the same 3 representatives - DUP, Sinn Fein & UUP. |
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9th April 2019, 09:20 PM
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#6
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,774 User: 3,272 |
There tend to be a presumption against MPs also serving as MEPs (although there is no legal block), so I doubt any of the Chuka MPs will stand.
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9th April 2019, 09:22 PM
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#7
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,788 User: 10,455 |
There tend to be a presumption against MPs also serving as MEPs (although there is no legal block), so I doubt any of the Chuka MPs will stand. My thinking is that in such a scenario, they would then resign their seat in the HoC in order to go to Brussels, therefore demonstrating their loyalty to the EU in the strongest possible terms. |
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10th April 2019, 05:21 AM
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#8
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 |
Not necessarily. If any Leavers have been paying attention to what MEPs do, they'll know how ineffectual the UKIP ones are at engaging with the European Parliament. UKIP have really lost their way in credibility. There's also Farage's new party, the Brexit Party, how well that does I suspect will depend on his charisma and how much the media makes them a viable option, but it does provide an alternative to those disillusioned by UKIP. And then Conservatives will also be courting Leave votes very heavily. For which party gains the highest number of votes/MEPs I'd actually say it SEEMS like anyone's game. IMO it'll be like any election other than a GE : low turnout, with voters merely treating it as an opinion poll, in which case I predict UKIP will do very well again. |
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10th April 2019, 10:18 PM
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#9
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,460 User: 5,138 |
I wonder if the generally public will be confused by the changes in UKIP over the past 5 years and how Farage has changed to the Brexit Party?
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10th April 2019, 10:29 PM
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#10
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,788 User: 10,455 |
I wonder if the generally public will be confused by the changes in UKIP over the past 5 years and how Farage has changed to the Brexit Party? Short answer - yes, and it is something that troubles me greatly. It will take some incredibly intelligent persuasion skills by someone with a national platform to get it through to the general public that a) Ukip of 2019 are not the same as the Ukip of 2014, and b) to not vote for them in spite of what they are now (because unfortunately, even if people are aware of the depths that Ukip have sunk under Batten, many will still vote for them regardless). Unfortunately, I do not think there is a persuader with the requisite skills that can navigate those choppy waters. |
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10th April 2019, 10:43 PM
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#11
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,460 User: 5,138 |
It'll happen because people will inevitably think Farage is still the leader and they associate the party as the Brexit party. Or both parties could stop the other doing well.
Seen a poll today for the EU elections - Labour 37% Conservative 23% Brexit Party 11% Liberals 7% Change UK 4% UKIP 7% |
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10th April 2019, 11:06 PM
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#12
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,667 User: 88 |
These Euro elections are going to be bloody important, don't vote Labour unless they come out with a clear stance on what type of Brexit they want.
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11th April 2019, 05:54 AM
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#13
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 |
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11th April 2019, 07:22 AM
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#14
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 23,040 User: 17,376 |
These Euro elections are going to be bloody important, don't vote Labour unless they come out with a clear stance on what type of Brexit they want. I won't be voting Labour after the shambles stances Corbyn has taken, the good news is PR votes count so everyone can actually vote FOR a party rather than AGAINST one to stop them winning. |
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11th April 2019, 02:06 PM
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#15
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 |
I won't be voting Labour after the shambles stances Corbyn has taken, the good news is PR votes count so everyone can actually vote FOR a party rather than AGAINST one to stop them winning. Although 'winning' isn't really a thing where the Euro's are concerned, because you gain nothing by finishing first. |
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11th April 2019, 05:00 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53 |
I certainly won't be voting as a protest against the will of the people not being carried out. I may stand outside our polling station with a BREXIT placard.
This post has been edited by Common Sense: 11th April 2019, 05:01 PM |
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11th April 2019, 05:20 PM
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#17
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,788 User: 10,455 |
I certainly won't be voting as a protest against the will of the people not being carried out. I may stand outside our polling station with a BREXIT placard. I daresay many Remainers will thank you for your sacrifice. It will mean that their vote will count for more than it would if you were to vote yourself. |
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11th April 2019, 05:23 PM
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#18
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,788 User: 10,455 |
Although 'winning' isn't really a thing where the Euro's are concerned, because you gain nothing by finishing first. I would disagree - even you mean that winning the most seats in the UK won't give a party in its own right a massive say in the EU Parliament on a Europe-wide basis, winning the most seats in the European Parliament elections in the UK would be a massive boost for the party that comes out 1st, both in PR terms and for supporters/activists in said party. Let's not forget that Ukip topping the polls in 2014 led to the promise of a referendum on the EU's membership, the effects of which we are still seeing. |
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13th April 2019, 10:32 AM
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#19
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,241 User: 3,474 |
These Euro elections are going to be bloody important, don't vote Labour unless they come out with a clear stance on what type of Brexit they want. I second this. Seen nothing from them that suggests they either have a plan or if they did have a plan that it would be substantially different from the Tories. I will be proxy voting for the SNP. Hoping they might come out with the third seat this time |
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13th April 2019, 12:42 PM
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#20
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,667 User: 88 |
I second this. Seen nothing from them that suggests they either have a plan or if they did have a plan that it would be substantially different from the Tories. I will be proxy voting for the SNP. Hoping they might come out with the third seat this time They still want Brexit, they just haven't told us what type of Brexit they want yet. I mean it took them two years to come up with a Custom's Union and they are will they/won't they with supporting a second referendum. I just think it's really important to not use the vote to default to Labour unless they are clear about what they want. Personally I suspect there will be much more interest in these elections this time around. We only got a referendum in the first place because of UKIP, I think sending a strong message to the government the better. Oh and if anyone wants a laugh about the Brexit Party the below links will put a smile on your face, especially the first one. http://thebrexitparty.eu/ https://thebrexitparty.com/ |
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