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 2022 United States Midterms |
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 9th November 2022, 04:38 AM
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#21
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 is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,249 User: 8,300 
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I lied about going to bed
QUOTE Kaleigh Rogers Nov. 8, 11:34 pm 🚨 UPSET ALERT 🚨 In our first two upsets of the night (whenever the projected winner had less than a 40-in-100 chance in the final Deluxe forecast) ABC News projects that Democrat Emilia Sykes will win OH-13 over Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert. Sykes had a 18.6 percent chance of winning in FiveThirtyEight’s final Deluxe pre-election forecast. And in Ohio’s 1st District, Democrat Greg Landsman is projected to win over incumbent Republican Rep. Steve Chabot. Landsman had a 16.1 percent chance of winning in the final Deluxe preelection forecast. Ohio coming through! Encouraging news that the first confirmed 'upsets' are in favour of the Democrats (though sadly the Senate race there was already called for the Republicans, not that that was surprising). |
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9th November 2022, 05:00 AM
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#22
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,249 User: 8,300
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MSNBC projecting Republicans only barely winning the house right now (219-216 with a margin of error +/- 13). Hopium? I don't know if this makes me want to go to bed more or less.
North Carolina's 13th district has apparently also gone D after being projected as likely R. |
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9th November 2022, 05:07 AM
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#23
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,539 User: 12,929          |
I think Georgia looks like a runoff right now.
Nice to see a few pickups here and there for Democrats in places we didn't expect, I did wonder about there being so many Republican-leaning pollsters this time around. That NC race in particular as well as Ohio's multiple races are great, and very unlikely. |
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9th November 2022, 05:51 AM
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#24
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 BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 20 November 2014
Posts: 2,594 User: 21,384
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the roe v. wade repeal is the dark horse here. it has really challenged conventional wisdom that the incumbent party is likely to lose in the midterms, and lose big in times of economic crisis
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9th November 2022, 05:56 AM
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#25
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,539 User: 12,929 |
NBC just called it for Fetterman!
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9th November 2022, 06:37 AM
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#26
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 20 November 2014
Posts: 2,594 User: 21,384
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I'm under no impression that a divided congress is a net good in any sense btw because it's obviously not, I'm just breathing a sigh of relief that it seems to not nearly be as bad as some were predicting
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9th November 2022, 08:02 AM
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#27
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,323 User: 5,138
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Well things look a lot better than when I went to bed at midnight 😁
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9th November 2022, 10:31 AM
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#28
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,689 User: 124,514
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Definitely - the USA isn't quite as messed up as I thought.
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9th November 2022, 10:34 AM
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#29
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,451 User: 18,639
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YAS FETTERMAN!!!!
GET NEOLIBERALS OUT!!! SUPPORT THE LEFT!!!! OR AS CLOSE TO LEFT AS TOU CAN GET!!!! |
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9th November 2022, 12:38 PM
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#30
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,539 User: 12,929 |
Yeah I think we can call this a very good result for the Dems. National conversation is all about how they've outperformed expectations and how the Red Wave turned out to be no more than a red... tinkle.
Looks like there's a good possibility that Nevada will go red which will leave us right where we started at 50-50 for the Senate, that's the only one left I can't call. House is still going to go Republican but not by much at all. |
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9th November 2022, 12:44 PM
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#31
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 Schlagerdrottningen
Joined: 23 August 2010
Posts: 31,965 User: 11,709
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This has been a very pleasing set of results, and roughly in line with my expectations. I still think it will be a 51-49 Senate and maybe 215-221 or so in the House, which is borderline miraculous in comparison to what would usually happen (especially to Dems).
My favourite takeaway from all this is that Lauren Boebert is struggling (although will probably eke it out in the end). |
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9th November 2022, 12:56 PM
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#32
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,225 User: 3,474
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If they could steal Boeberts seat it would be worth losing the house to get rid of one of the most abhorrent law makers in any democracy on earth.
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9th November 2022, 01:37 PM
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#33
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,249 User: 8,300
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Boebert's seat wasn't even supposed to be close (she had a 97% chance to win per FiveThirtyEight), it does look unfortunately likely she'll barely claw it back but still keeping my fingers crossed, that would be a real faith in humanity reaffirming moment if she lost.
Nevada result comes down to how many mail votes are left to be counted which is going to take days to be confirmed, here's hoping Cortez Masto gets over the line so the Georgia runoff doesn't matter. (Assuming Arizona holds too which I think it should) Annoyingly we're in the range of possibility that the Dems could have kept the House if they'd played dirtier with their redistricting in New York - the pro-Dem gerrymander was thrown out by the courts there and replaced with a more neutral map where the Reps may be picking up a decent number of seats by small margins. Meanwhile in Florida the map was also thrown out by courts but... Republicans just kept sending equally bullshit maps over and over to the point where they eventually ran out of time and were just allowed to use the original one that was deemed illegal anyway. Sounds fair to me. |
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9th November 2022, 02:12 PM
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#34
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,451 User: 18,639
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Dems need to start playing by the same rules as the Trump fash
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9th November 2022, 04:09 PM
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#35
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,689 User: 124,514
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Yes this is excellent news - and apologies for my ignorance, one only hears bits and pieces - but haven't the Republicans fixed the next GE by legislature in their controlled states so that the people employed in the State legislature will make it difficult for Dems electoral votes to count? Or is that not a major factor? As if the population are rejecting the opposition in the mid terms which is very rare then surely there's a great chance of a Democrat 2024 win.
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9th November 2022, 04:36 PM
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#36
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,225 User: 3,474
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My understanding is that the Republicans have largely tried to put a thumb on the scales (as have democrats to a lesser extent) by gerrymandering the ever loving f*** out of the state election maps. It is a ridiculously gerrymandered country and the electoral map looks f***ing atrocious. Especially in the likes of Texas
This election they have weaponised the Secretary of State position at the state level by trying to stack it full of magazi‘s which won’t have any baring on this election but will f*** up the 2024 presidential election. Some have effectively declared that they would send electors to the electoral college to vote for trump/republicans regardless of what the state actually voted |
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9th November 2022, 04:48 PM
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#37
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,689 User: 124,514
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Thanks - yes that is really worrying and similar things are happening in the UK (albeit for another thread). Recent updates indicate that Democrats despite doing a lot better than expected are going to lose the house anyway (and Senate too tight to call).
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9th November 2022, 06:59 PM
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#38
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 The owls are not what they seem
Pronouns: He/him
Joined: 11 July 2009 Posts: 37,230 User: 9,232
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Certainly could've been worse news to wake up to this morning, Trump and the Republicans not accepting the results will be the icing on the cake that it didn't go their way
 I like to think that Roe v Wade was a factor in the red wave fizzling out even with Biden's patchy reign so far and that's encouraging as it shows that blatant fascist acts cannot go unpunished, and hopefully if the Dems hold the senate, it won't be as much of a lame duck last term. It also hopefully all but confirms Trump won't run again, he'll undoubtedly try, but I would put real faith in even the sodding Republican party that a man under criminal investigation and who (legally clearly in some way) incited the Capitol riots wouldn't be the best bet for the White House, not that someone like DeSantis would be any better mind x |
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9th November 2022, 11:43 PM
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#39
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,323 User: 5,138
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There’s no way they will support him after these elections - the Trumpian candidates have been the seats where the GOP has been losing out, it’s the rise of the GOP centre(if that’s what you can call them)!
Boebert losing by a handful of votes in Colorado - I can’t watch - would be a sweet victory for the Dems if they win out! |
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9th November 2022, 11:57 PM
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#40
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,689 User: 124,514
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Yes the momentum is with DeSantis but he's just as evil, especially with his almost Nazi like "Don't say Gay" laws, if less deranged. Done very well in Florida but do the rest of the country want someone that divisive and Nationalist? I think not.
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