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 UK General Election 2024 |
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 15 hours ago
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#221
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 Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,496 User: 18,639 
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QUOTE(DoBelieveTheHype @ 24th May 2024, 06:52 PM)  Tories still looking for candidates in 100 seats including my own with a 48 hour deadline. Many of them are Labour safe seats but you'd think you'd have candidates lined up before you call an election. They didn't even plan for an umbrella in the rain 
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15 hours ago
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#222
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,377 User: 5,138
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The 2019-24 parliament has been prorogued so the tories cannot legislate anymore terrible laws for hopefully at least 5 more years!
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15 hours ago
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#223
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,496 User: 18,639
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OMG YES YES YES!!!!
No Rwanda flights, no morr nasty attacks on the nhs or people on pip, no more public money for their mates, it's done!!! It's done!!!!   The nightmsre is finally over - hopefully forever, with younger genersrions waking up to how evil the Tories are? And ... wkth pr? Hint hint, Starmier!!Also, still imcredibly illegal when Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumb, the aristocratic eronian posh boys, went to prorogue parliament over brexshit!! Shocking, entitled, anti demoractic, rotten borough behaviour |
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15 hours ago
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#224
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 30 March 2024
Posts: 276 User: 175,892
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QUOTE(Doomsday Dong @ 24th May 2024, 09:55 PM) OMG YES YES YES!!!! No Rwanda flights, no morr nasty attacks on the nhs or people on pip, no more public money for their mates, it's done!!! It's done!!!! The nightmsre is finally over - hopefully forever, with younger genersrions waking up to how evil the Tories are? And ... wkth pr? Hint hint, Starmier!!Also, still imcredibly illegal when Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dumb, the aristocratic eronian posh boys, went to prorogue parliament over brexshit!! Shocking, entitled, anti demoractic, rotten borough behaviour I've been numbed by enough general election campaigns (especially 2017 when Corbyn got close to meaningful change) not to count chickens on this one. There's a lot of people out their who will say to pollsters they're voting Labour and then vote Tory anyway sadly. The swing Labour needs is massive. This post has been edited by DoBelieveTheHype: 15 hours ago |
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15 hours ago
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#225
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,496 User: 18,639
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Tories are done. The far right have deserted them, so their brexshit coalition has collapsed from that alone. North has abandoned them. The northeast scabs who switched in the first place should be ASHAMED. All for a charlatan. The North should ALWAYS remember. Lib Dems will take their blur wall seats. Labour will tske back its rrd wall seats. What's left? Their strong older voting block has been torpedoed by their disgracrful brexshit ... policies, plus by voter id lsws...
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15 hours ago
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#226
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,377 User: 5,138
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Fascinated to see how Scotland votes!
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14 hours ago
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#227
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 is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,266 User: 8,300
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New Cassetteboy banger dropped x (also lol at the announcement of no Rwanda flights before the election - with Labour looking very likely to win and promising to drop that scheme if they do (caveat: I know better than to assume Keir Starmer will stand by anything he promises), it looks like the whole Rwanda farce will be drawing to a hopefully final close with a grand outcome of exactly 0 flights. Not that I want there to be any flights but what an outrageous waste of money this whole thing was) |
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13 hours ago
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#228
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,164 User: 4,718
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QUOTE(Brer @ 25th May 2024, 12:01 AM) New Cassetteboy banger dropped x This was uploaded in 2008 and I cannot believe that Cassetteboy is gonna outlive 14 years of Tory government. |
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3 hours ago
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#229
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 26 February 2007
Posts: 14,484 User: 3,002
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QUOTE(DoBelieveTheHype @ 24th May 2024, 09:59 PM) I've been numbed by enough general election campaigns (especially 2017 when Corbyn got close to meaningful change) not to count chickens on this one. There's a lot of people out their who will say to pollsters they're voting Labour and then vote Tory anyway sadly. The swing Labour needs is massive. Yeah I’m still apprehensive/ sceptical about the Tory collapse and a Labour landslide. Would be great to see it happen, but I have little faith that the public will go that way  Hopefully they do and this will be one of the better election evenings. |
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3 hours ago
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#230
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,197 User: 7,561
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QUOTE(DoBelieveTheHype @ 24th May 2024, 09:59 PM) I've been numbed by enough general election campaigns (especially 2017 when Corbyn got close to meaningful change) not to count chickens on this one. There's a lot of people out their who will say to pollsters they're voting Labour and then vote Tory anyway sadly. The swing Labour needs is massive. That's actually not strictly true. I mean, it's the kind of thing that Kuenssberg has been saying however from reading the comments of psephologists it's probably only a 7-8 pt uniform swing required to give Labour a working majority this time round. I think the reason for that is that according to analysis of the 2024 local elections their vote is becoming more efficient. So for example, the swing from CON to LAB was greater in areas where the Conservatives had a much greater lead in 2019 whereas it is signficantly lower in areas where Labour won or had a large majority. QUOTE The stronger the Conservatives started in a ward, the further they tended to fall, with Labour the biggest beneficiary. In wards where the Conservatives started under 20%, they fell by an average of 5 points. In wards where the Tory incumbent started with 50% or more of the vote, they fell by an average of 17 points, with Labour rising by 7 points, a 12 point swing. If this were replicated in a general election, Labour will see little gain in the seats it already holds, with its advance concentrated instead in the seats it is targeting. Such a pattern would dramatically improve the efficiency of the Labour vote, and reduce the swing Labour would need to achieve a majority. Some further analysis on this chart below which shows that during the late 1990s and early 2000s the Labour vote was so efficient that even had they polled lower than the Tories nationwide they'd have still got a majority.  Further to this we have the Stop The Tories campaign supported by Carol Vorderman, which wants to reduce the Tories to ’30 to 40’ MPs. In 1993 the Canadian Conservatives were reduced to just two (2) MPs with a new party called 'Reform' enjoying a surge in support splintering from the governing party and effectively removed and replaced the previous right wing Conservative party as the biggest in that parliament.. |
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3 hours ago
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#231
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 6 December 2023
Posts: 886 User: 173,568
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I got every election right including brexit but this one has no mystique I think pro-labour people etc have ptsd from previous elections there is no need to worry this will be a complete blowout and I'm sure the lib Dems will be closer in seats to the tories than the polls suggest too
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2 hours ago
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#232
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,550 User: 12,929       |
I agree Doc Blind, the swing required is much less than people may think from looking at Labour's current relatively low count of ~200 MPs, and the idea that FPTP swings get exponentially more extreme is something that isn't quite intuitive just looking at seat numbers. Not that uniform swing can really be an exact simulation but due to where the parties are heading it's not too far off.
Every seat that Labour lost in 2019 was a seat that votes Labour by default in almost all circumstances that aren't political fatigue and encapturement by a conman (the Tory campaign then offered loads that they cannot offer now), which 2019 had and 2024 has nothing of, and in fact has so many scenarios more favourable to Labour. Pretty much all of the "Red Wall" is essentially back in Labour's camp already and I would be shocked if all of those don't immediately fall back bar the odd one that's trended into Hard Right territory so hard that Reform are challenging, but that sort of thing (e.g. Boston & Skegness, Castle Point) is rare and easily counterbalanced by the fact that many less urban seats across England are in play for Labour now. The sort of seat that got Tory 10k majorities in the last election all across southern and central England are going to be Labour targets and will be full of the middle class voters that the Tories have spent this parliament entirely ignoring and Labour have spent a fair amount of time courting. I expect the blue countryside will be so much less apparent than any election we're used to. |
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29 minutes ago
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#233
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,377 User: 5,138
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Will the Palestinian conflict have any effect in a GE compared to the council elections?
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13 minutes ago
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#234
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 30 March 2024
Posts: 276 User: 175,892
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QUOTE(Steve201 @ 25th May 2024, 12:56 PM) Will the Palestinian conflict have any effect in a GE compared to the council elections? It might cost Labour a handful of seats in areas with high Muslim populations but aside from that it's likely to make a minor difference. |
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