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 OPINION POLLS 2019-2024, This thread is 'oven-ready' for the latest polls. |
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 1st April 2021, 05:26 AM
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#381
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,531 User: 12,929                 |
Seat distribution points are completely fair though, that will indeed likely get worse especially with the boundary changes. There are certain traditionally socially conservative things that Labour can try, especially if combined with economically left things that can be shown to be better than the Conservatives. I agree with the point above that pinpointing the next budget would be a good idea.
Starmer needs to go fire and brimstone on the Tories when he can. I still think he's been too passive over the crisis and let the Conservatives dictate the narrative and so if he doesn't at the next budget, when people start to feel the strain, I don't think we can count on him. |
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1st April 2021, 09:02 AM
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#382
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 WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,629 User: 88 
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QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Apr 1 2021, 06:13 AM)  What is social conservatism though (and I don't mean a euphemism for racism)? Because Britain is very socially liberal on LGBT rights and racism, at least on policy (and though it's an all-or-nothing thing really and that's why the other topic on race exists, this is supported by more people than not in the country) and it just keeps getting more liberal no matter who's in government, the swing voters who disagreed with that in the North were those already voting Conservative, they aren't the swing voters to win back. There's this myth of the old white working class northerner who's racist and wants a 1950s white Britain and has Valid Concerns™ about the "Woke Brigade" and I see no evidence that that sort of person really exists in large numbers, those that do are retired and ever shrinking in number. The working-class is a lot more socially left and on board with at least identity rights and multiculturalism, many of them indeed ARE from different ethnic backgrounds. Britain may well be socially conservative in some aspects, like family-oriented, against immigration, maybe harsher punishments on crime, but those are policy-specific and going to be complex, I reckon most of the pro-immigration votes will be in Labour's base already. And anti-immigration is only an issue that tends to be on the conservative side of things because of conservative pro-business actions that make threats to jobs a reality, which is fixed (by a pro-immigration party) through investment, not through a party campaigning to be regressive on who we let in. i.e. Immigration is only an issue because of the material realities of Britain that can be changed by a party willing to frame an argument around investment - which, to the Tories' credit, the whole 'levelling Britain up' thing is the sort of rhetoric that would be useful here. I don't buy that Labour has to be doing a 'suck it up... we're just going to have to get more racist' strategy, that's a dark road to be going. And given that Starmer already has from this poll, a bad poll for him, lots of the Red Wall seats back under his cap, it's not like Labour doesn't have a shot at the next election, it's not an insurmountable mountain. Saying that 2024 is lost because of 2019 is making excuses for centrist failures... 3 years before the fact. Labour just needs to stand for SOMETHING, not nothing. It's like advertising, you need to be visible, not making the most bland statements possible to not offend anyone. There are some good points, but I think there are a lot of assumptions about the electorate. Possibly a bad example, but we will go with it, yes Britain is socially less racist and more progressive on LGBT+ issues to a point, certainly compared to other countries. But it's very similar to the housing crisis, most of the country will agree with the for housing.. except when it actually turns up on their front door. One thing Labour do not want to do right now, is get in to any form of culture war with the Tories as they will spin it very well to make Labour look like fools. My feelings are pick your battles right now with the Tories, activists want him to see him tearing the Tories a new one every single time, but I don't think that's going to win an election. I mean if half of the country can't even tell us what the main covid symptoms are, do you think they will be engaged to see the Tories being made to look like mugs. They don't care and won't have any semblings of care until there is an election. Yes, it is completely passive but we tried going gung-ho last time led by Momentum and look where that got us.. Of course it is reasonable to think Labour have a shot in 2024, but it's also an extremely difficult task. To claw back an 80+ seat majority is going to be a huge challenge. That's not making an excuse for failure, it's been a realist that it's going to be extremely difficult to hold current Labour voters, keep Centrist voters, get swing voters and win back some of the Red Wall seats. I don't believe you get that back by just standing for something which is clearly visible (it is far more complex than that, at least how I interpret it), I think that's a lazy straight out of McCluskey. |
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1st April 2021, 05:49 PM
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#383
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 Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,157 User: 4,718
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If you think about social attitudes in Britain in terms of social authoritarianism ('hang the paedos', curtain twitchers, a deep distrust of others) rather than social conservatism (anti-abortion, anti-LGBT views etc.) then it makes more sense.
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6th April 2021, 07:52 AM
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#384
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,374 User: 23,471
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Some very interesting polling from Hartlepool here— 67% want increased investment in public services, 69% support free broadband, 57% support nationalisation of Royal Mail, 42% support 10% pay increase for nurses (43% for 3%) None of that Labour are offering anymore. |
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6th April 2021, 08:09 AM
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#385
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,531 User: 12,929 |
'broadband communism'
Joe Biden is literally rolling out something similar right now across the USA. What we could have had... |
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6th April 2021, 08:21 AM
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#386
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,629 User: 88
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Did they ask the poll sample if they also favoured tax hikes across the board?
For what it is worth I favoured the Broadband policy, the concept had some legs to it. I was slightly surprised how the Tories just brushed it aside and even the electorate too. It's certainly something I suspect a party will adopt at one stage. |
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6th April 2021, 09:39 AM
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#387
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,250 User: 5,138
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People only cared about ‘gettin Brexit done’ mate 😂! Clowns!! The tories always dismiss Labour policies and then have them in their next budget, happens every election!
On the tax point the people of Hartlepool would likely not be effected by tax hikes as it’ll be the people earning a lot more than them. At any rate taxes would have to rise eventually with all the issues created by brexit and the 10 years of Tory austerity. |
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6th April 2021, 09:56 AM
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#388
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
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It sadly just shows the extraordinary success of the media demonising the opposition for everything but promoting the Conservatives at every opportunity. Plus of course stirring up divisions. Oldest trick in the book.
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6th April 2021, 10:17 AM
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#389
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,629 User: 88
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Apr 6 2021, 10:39 AM) People only cared about ‘gettin Brexit done’ mate 😂! Clowns!! The tories always dismiss Labour policies and then have them in their next budget, happens every election! On the tax point the people of Hartlepool would likely not be effected by tax hikes as it’ll be the people earning a lot more than them. At any rate taxes would have to rise eventually with all the issues created by brexit and the 10 years of Tory austerity. I'm entirely dubious about tax hikes. Everyone is going to get a tax hike, the difference will be they might not be explicit as a tax rise. Certainly we've already got one with the income tax allowance frozen at both mid and lower bands after this year. This is only going to be the start. |
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6th April 2021, 10:55 AM
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#390
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,250 User: 5,138
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I’m happy with tax hikes, it’s the price of living in a civilised society but it’s it the very rich pay f*** all compared to us paye people! It’s Laisse Faire for them most of the time.
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16th April 2021, 08:48 AM
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#391
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
Posts: 4,374 User: 23,471
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Welp |
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16th April 2021, 09:10 AM
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#392
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,531 User: 12,929 |
An outlier, probably, but that's not to downplay that it's bad. I have very little optimism that the local elections will go well for Labour.
Apparently the Greensill news has been getting a decent amount of cutthrough and Labour are going hard on an anti-Tory corruption message as a result so that might show up in the next few polls. |
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16th April 2021, 09:13 AM
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#393
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,392 User: 18,639
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29 +16 = 45%. Tory + Farage Fan Club = 46%
If the left weren't so fractured... |
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16th April 2021, 09:30 AM
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#394
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,629 User: 88
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QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Apr 16 2021, 10:10 AM) An outlier, probably, but that's not to downplay that it's bad. I have very little optimism that the local elections will go well for Labour. Apparently the Greensill news has been getting a decent amount of cutthrough and Labour are going hard on an anti-Tory corruption message as a result so that might show up in the next few polls. It will be interesting to see how the Greensill stuff plays out. By a fluke Labour have come on to something as just as long as they're fairly squeaky clean with vetted interests then I think it could have an impact on the polls. Some more stuff about Hancock has come out and I suspect this is going to be a running story just as long as it has legs. Will be interesting to see if anything else comes out. Whatever happened it was always fairly likely Labour are going to get a battering at the local elections. Culmination of factors and the smaller parties always tend to do better too. |
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16th April 2021, 09:48 AM
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#395
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 February 2021
Posts: 3,654 User: 124,514
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I think the biggest problem is that so many people absolutely worship Johnson and call him Boris and think he's a "man of the people" and not woke etc... Starmer has no personality whatsoever. Where Johnson has been smart though is that he has been more serious about covid this year even pissing off many on the right wing of his party who would lift restrictions yesterday. So he won't lose many 'competence' points at the moment which was beginning to happen last year when Labour had the odd okish lead.
I really dislike him and think the culture wars they are brewing will make this country unsafe for a lot of minorities - it has already happened in some communities. But they've got a winning strategy and they'll stick to it. Starmer should be replaced - he's failed. And seriously yes Labour + LD + Green need to formally make a pact with each other, get a progressive force with some momentum. |
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16th April 2021, 10:00 AM
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#396
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 Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,218 User: 3,474
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QUOTE(blacksquare @ Apr 16 2021, 10:48 AM) Welp Should focus the minds for Holyrood |
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16th April 2021, 11:53 AM
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#397
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,489 User: 21,753
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The Tories are getting an expected bounce from vaccine rollout / re-opening the economy. I don't think we should read too much into it yet.
Hopefully the ongoing corruption news will balance that back in Labour's favour over the next few weeks. Whatever happens, Labour will probably suffer in the local elections and hopefully that will focus minds going forward that Keir Starmer's current approach simply isn't cutting through and that last year's gains were probably more down to dissatisfaction with the government's handling on the pandemic rather than satisfaction with Labour. |
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16th April 2021, 12:19 PM
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#398
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Apr 6 2021, 10:39 AM) People only cared about ‘gettin Brexit done’ mate 😂! Clowns!! Hey I strongly object to you calling us clowns.  It's those who think we should be still in the restrictive evil EU who are the real clowns.
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16th April 2021, 12:50 PM
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#399
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,392 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(common sense @ Apr 16 2021, 01:19 PM) Hey I strongly object to you calling us clowns. It's those who think we should be still in the restrictive evil EU who are the real clowns.The corrupt, conniving, aristocrstic tories are the evil ones here ... not the democratic EU. Btw, ALL trading blocs demand compliance with their regulations to trade with them lol. Lil England is no longer a world power. It has to play by the grown-ups' rules, just like e everybody else. |
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16th April 2021, 01:13 PM
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#400
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,629 User: 88
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QUOTE(Smint @ Apr 16 2021, 10:48 AM) I think the biggest problem is that so many people absolutely worship Johnson and call him Boris and think he's a "man of the people" and not woke etc... Starmer has no personality whatsoever. Where Johnson has been smart though is that he has been more serious about covid this year even pissing off many on the right wing of his party who would lift restrictions yesterday. So he won't lose many 'competence' points at the moment which was beginning to happen last year when Labour had the odd okish lead. I really dislike him and think the culture wars they are brewing will make this country unsafe for a lot of minorities - it has already happened in some communities. But they've got a winning strategy and they'll stick to it. Starmer should be replaced - he's failed. And seriously yes Labour + LD + Green need to formally make a pact with each other, get a progressive force with some momentum. The idea of replacing Starmer is pretty mad though, who do you replace him with? There is a dearth of talent in Labour and internally the Party will throw different factions under the bus. Not sure a progressive allegiance will win back the seats the Party needs or plays to where Labour could go with winning back its support in the heartlands. The problem I always find and no matter who it is, the country is way too London/South-Centric. Even the likes of Momentum who are prominent don't have a clue what it's like on the whole to live in the North, especially away from the major cities. |
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