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UK Local Elections 2023, 4th May 2022 (Engerland)/18th May 2023 (Norn Iron)

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Jessie Where View member profile	5th May 2023, 06:31 PM Post #41
Break the tension Joined: 7 March 2006 Posts: 89,344 User: 51	Alexa, define schadenfreude


Rooney View member profile	5th May 2023, 08:18 PM Post #42
WINTER IS COMING Joined: 7 March 2006 Posts: 45,645 User: 88	Looks really promising for the general election. Labour increasing their vote share in most places. Tactical voting going to play a massive part in the next GE..


neill2407 View member profile	5th May 2023, 08:39 PM Post #43
BuzzJack Enthusiast Joined: 22 September 2022 Posts: 817 User: 159,650	Hopefully a change in government is coming. The local election results are very promising and long due!


Suedehead2 View member profile	5th May 2023, 08:43 PM Post #44
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,747 User: 3,272	QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 23 2023, 10:31 PM) I can't stand this time as I am an employee of Brighton & Hove CC. I suspect Labour will win a majority here. The big question is how an Independent group will do. The only councillor elected as an Independent last time has built a very good reputation and has now recruited several other candidates. A number of prominent Tories are not standing again, presumably to avoid the ignominy of losing. In my old stamping ground of Woking I assume the Lib Dems will make further progress and increase their majority. In another former home, I hope the Tories will get a hammering in Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole. Countrywide, it has to be remembered that the Tories did pretty badly four years ago. That means that the number of seats the Tories lose may not seem too bad. We may need to look more closely at the councils they don't control in traditionally Tory areas (Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole is an obvious example) for a better picture. As ever, no conclusions should be drawn from the first few results. Labour did indeed win a majority in Brighton & Hove, a much larger one than I expected. The Greens only just managed to outdo the Tories with seven seats against six. The Independents won three seats. The Lib Dems didn't win any (as per expectations) but did at least make some progress in selected seats. The Lib Dems increased their majority in Woking and also won control of neighbouring Guildford (as expected) and Surrey Heath (a long shot). The advance continued into Sussex with Horsham and Chichester turning gold while in Lewes (next door to B&H) the Tories went from being the largest party with nineteen seats to having no seats at all


Iz 🌟 View member profile	6th May 2023, 12:18 AM Post #45
I'm a paragon so don't perceive me Joined: 3 February 2011 Posts: 37,537 User: 12,929	QUOTE(steve201 @ May 5 2023, 05:03 PM) Does the English south west not generally swing from Liberall to Tory depending on whether the tories are doing well nationalwide or not? Depends greatly on individual seat and since for most elections places like Devon and Sussex are completely deep blue, it's less of a swing and more, you might see a Lib Dem occasionally in somewhere like North Devon thanks to local factors. Seats which don't have a history of switching are more often than not deep blue and have been since the Reform Act. To be fair, most of those have gone to NOC, but there's just no Conservative control across nearly the entire South Coast with plenty of councils just losing all of theirs (e.g. Lewes). Great to see them really lose 1,000 seats and the status of largest party. Wonder if this has increased the likelihood of May 2024 - a later election now almost certain to give Labour a landslide for locals less than 6 months out from the general.


neill2407 View member profile	6th May 2023, 12:26 PM Post #46
BuzzJack Enthusiast Joined: 22 September 2022 Posts: 817 User: 159,650	Guardian are reporting labour could be short by 28 seats of an overall majority if the same results are repeated at a general election. Obviously people can vote differently at a GE and this is likely to be more than a year away so things could change considerably.


Iz 🌟 View member profile	6th May 2023, 05:01 PM Post #47
I'm a paragon so don't perceive me Joined: 3 February 2011 Posts: 37,537 User: 12,929	QUOTE(neill2407 @ May 6 2023, 12:26 PM) Guardian are reporting labour could be short by 28 seats of an overall majority if the same results are repeated at a general election. Obviously people can vote differently at a GE and this is likely to be more than a year away so things could change considerably. Quite, the Green and Lib Dem vote share will likely nosedive and everyone will go in on tactical voting for what's best for their seat. I really think that people talking about a 'mountain to climb' are underestimating how easily many of the seats won in 2019 will be swung back when the very specific conditions of that election are not a factor, and even more so on the basis of these results. Very good reasons to be optimistic. I mean does even something like this look particularly unrealistic as the next general result? https://www.yapms.com/app/?u=2sb&m=cG9zdC1sb2NhbHM= - and part of that is me putting it on the low end for the memes of LAB 325 ISL-N 1


neill2407 View member profile	6th May 2023, 08:13 PM Post #48
BuzzJack Enthusiast Joined: 22 September 2022 Posts: 817 User: 159,650	If labour win outright, I think their majority will be relatively small and no where as big as the Tories got at the last election. This could well make it tricky getting through key pieces of legislation.


Rooney View member profile	6th May 2023, 10:30 PM Post #49
WINTER IS COMING Joined: 7 March 2006 Posts: 45,645 User: 88	QUOTE(neill2407 @ May 6 2023, 09:13 PM) If labour win outright, I think their majority will be relatively small and no where as big as the Tories got at the last election. This could well make it tricky getting through key pieces of legislation. Hmm I don't think it will matter that much as I would expect the Lib Dems would be aligned to a lot of the policies and the SNP maybe too? The key will be how many seats the Lib Dems gtake off of the Tories and if Labour can make any in-roads in Scotland.


Envoirment View member profile	6th May 2023, 10:47 PM Post #50
BuzzJack Platinum Member Joined: 21 November 2009 Posts: 8,606 User: 10,030	Happy to see best case scenario happened, with the Tories losing 1,000 seats, good gains for Labour as well as notable gains for Greens/Lib Dems QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ May 6 2023, 06:01 PM) Quite, the Green and Lib Dem vote share will likely nosedive and everyone will go in on tactical voting for what's best for their seat. I really think that people talking about a 'mountain to climb' are underestimating how easily many of the seats won in 2019 will be swung back when the very specific conditions of that election are not a factor, and even more so on the basis of these results. Very good reasons to be optimistic. I mean does even something like this look particularly unrealistic as the next general result? https://www.yapms.com/app/?u=2sb&m=cG9zdC1sb2NhbHM= - and part of that is me putting it on the low end for the memes of LAB 325 ISL-N 1 Yes, come election time I could see Labour getting a decent sized majority potentially, with the lib dems making a bit of a comeback and taking a number of seats from the tories. I think the biggest question mark will be how far the SNP fall. With the recent change of leader and ongoing issues, the SNP have nosedived quite a bit in the opinion polls in Scotland recently, going from a consistent lead of ~20-30 points ahead of any party to now only being ~5-10 points ahead of Labour. I suspect the SNP will stabilise and rise back up a bit before the next election though.


Suedehead2 View member profile	7th May 2023, 01:44 PM Post #51
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,747 User: 3,272	QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 5 2023, 01:55 PM) There are rumours that the Green leader of Brighton and Hove has lost his seat. He did indeed lose his seat. The deputy leader also lost her seat in the same ward, both by very small margins. QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 5 2023, 04:40 PM) Bizarre scenes in Broxtowe. In a multi-member ward, two Tories tied for the last seat. One of them was the leader of teh Tory group. They had to draw lots and the leader lost More bizarre news, although rather sadder this time. A Tory candidate died on Thursday meaning that the election was immediately called off and will be rerun. Another Tory candidate died after polls closed. As the result had not been declared, that contest has to be rerun as well. In one of those wards, another one of the Tory candidates was the group leader so they will be without him when council business begins. There is still one council, Redcar, which has not declared all the results. One two-member ward has not yet declared after two full recounts. Unfortunately, full recounts in multi-member wards are very time-consuming. They will be trying again on Tuesday.


Brett-Butler View member profile	7th May 2023, 02:31 PM Post #52
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,782 User: 10,455	QUOTE(steve201 @ Apr 30 2023, 10:05 AM) Why you cheering that? She's a family friend of my fianceé. Got us a nice engagement present and is coming to our wedding. Just to note she's not standing in my constituency. QUOTE Why did McCusker leave the SDLP? Too right wing for them? From what I've heard, it's a mixture of a number of factors. One is that the SDLP appear to be more focused away at Westminster than it is on local issues that he'd rather they focused on like the cost of living crisis and poverty. Given that winning those two seats at Westminster has been their only election success in the past 5 years I can understand why, but quite short-sighted as I can see them losing both seats next year (to Sinn Fein in Foyle and Alliance in Belfast South). I also believe that internal SDLP politics played a role as well. He was overlooked for the Assembly Elections last year - had he stood in Belfast North he would have kept the seat for the party by a landslide, although given that their deputy leader and minister stands in that area how that could have worked in practice would have been tricky. Also, given that the SDLP more or less thought (prior to McCusker leaving) that they were going to get a "free" seat in Oldpark due to McCusker's personal vote, they appear to have parachuted in a candidate from outside the area that the party hierarchy are in favour of (who flopped in the Assembly elections), rather than a candidate local to the Oldpark area - I think I read somewhere that the graphics were published by the party with the 2 candidates before he was made aware who his running "mate" was to be. So from my understanding, a mixture of internal & external politics.


Suedehead2 View member profile	7th May 2023, 06:05 PM Post #53
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,747 User: 3,272	A tweet from the Lib Dems points out that Tory party chair Greg Hands must have the Midas Touch. Most of the places he visited in the campaign turned Lib Dem gold


Smint View member profile	8th May 2023, 01:31 AM Post #54
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 21 February 2021 Posts: 3,687 User: 124,514	Lol that's brilliant!


Brett-Butler View member profile	19th May 2023, 07:23 PM Post #55
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,782 User: 10,455	The count in the Northern Irish local elections are currently taking place. The final results won't be known until tomorrow evening, but so far the big headline is that there has been a massive surge for Sinn Fein. As it stands with around 40% of the seats declared, their vote is up 8% on 2019, and have currently gained 11 councilors (largely at the expense of the SDLP, although they have have won a few seats I expected them to lose), including winning seats in areas previously believed unthinkable for the party. The DUP are down 1.5% but have only lost 2 seats to date, Alliance are the only other party to gain seats at this point, with a 2% increase in votes and a net gain of 3 seats. TUV's vote share is also up, although this hasn't transferred into any seat gains so far.


Suedehead2 View member profile	19th May 2023, 08:38 PM Post #56
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,747 User: 3,272	Fingers crossed for further DUP losses.


Smint View member profile	19th May 2023, 09:57 PM Post #57
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 21 February 2021 Posts: 3,687 User: 124,514	I don't follow Northern Irish politics much but do know that Sinn Fein nowadays have a message of hope rather than the utterly miserable outlook of the DUP.


Brett-Butler View member profile	20th May 2023, 10:43 AM Post #58
Howdy, disco citizens Joined: 16 January 2010 Posts: 12,782 User: 10,455	QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ May 7 2023, 03:31 PM) She's a family friend of my fianceé. Got us a nice engagement present and is coming to our wedding. Just to note she's not standing in my constituency. She got in, in spite of her party running one more candidate in the area than they should have.


Steve201 View member profile	20th May 2023, 07:56 PM Post #59
Shakin Stevens Joined: 29 December 2007 Posts: 46,319 User: 5,138	QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ May 7 2023, 03:31 PM) She's a family friend of my fianceé. Got us a nice engagement present and is coming to our wedding. Just to note she's not standing in my constituency. From what I've heard, it's a mixture of a number of factors. One is that the SDLP appear to be more focused away at Westminster than it is on local issues that he'd rather they focused on like the cost of living crisis and poverty. Given that winning those two seats at Westminster has been their only election success in the past 5 years I can understand why, but quite short-sighted as I can see them losing both seats next year (to Sinn Fein in Foyle and Alliance in Belfast South). I also believe that internal SDLP politics played a role as well. He was overlooked for the Assembly Elections last year - had he stood in Belfast North he would have kept the seat for the party by a landslide, although given that their deputy leader and minister stands in that area how that could have worked in practice would have been tricky. Also, given that the SDLP more or less thought (prior to McCusker leaving) that they were going to get a "free" seat in Oldpark due to McCusker's personal vote, they appear to have parachuted in a candidate from outside the area that the party hierarchy are in favour of (who flopped in the Assembly elections), rather than a candidate local to the Oldpark area - I think I read somewhere that the graphics were published by the party with the 2 candidates before he was made aware who his running "mate" was to be. So from my understanding, a mixture of internal & external politics. He’s back in with ease as expected!


Suedehead2 View member profile	23rd June 2023, 07:03 PM Post #60
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,747 User: 3,272	An incredibly close result in a byelection in West Devon yesterday... ND 233 LD 233 GREEN 215 CON 176 LAB 57 The Independent candidate won on the drawing of lots in a seat previously held by a Green.