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> Eurovision Song Contest 2016 ˇ Odds, Top 5 | Russia ˇ Australia ˇ Ukraine ˇ France ˇ Sweden
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Ryan.
post Jan 20 2016, 05:50 PM
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Of course, it's very very very early to start looking at odds but Betfred has opened their Eurovision betting for 2016 which means we can start to see hype trains form and fade as the national selections come and go. As always, at such an early stage, just a couple of people making bets can cause big shifts in the market and the odds are based on that little bit of money in the market rather than expert opinions, but still let's have a look!

Russia currently lead the way with Sergey at just 7/2, with Sweden predictably at 7/1 and then Malta, Germany and Norway at 8/1. I'm guessing Malta must be an example of one of those big shifts as I don't see anything in their national final that would be in contention for a Eurovision win. Germany don't usually start this high either, maybe the little bit of hype around Gregorian and Avantasia is giving them attention. The rest of the countries at the top are the predictable ones who commonly have good entries and big national selections like Denmark, Estonia, Hungary, Ukraine and Australia.

Full list here: Eurovision @ Oddschecker
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Ryan.
post Jan 20 2016, 06:01 PM
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As always I'll copy these over from the 2015 thread so I don't forget about them. They are the odds for the top 10/15 from around a month before each contest according to previous topics in the forum which always provide very interesting reading.

2015
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 25 2015, 06:38 PM) *
01. 006/4 | Sweden ˇ Mĺns Zelmerlöw - Heroes 1st
02. 007/2 | Italy ˇ Il Volo - Grande Amore 3rd
03. 005/1 | Australia ˇ Guy Sebastian - Tonight Again 5th
04. 010/1 | Estonia ˇ Elina Born & Stig Rästa - Goodbye To Yesterday 7th
05. 025/1 | Finland ˇ Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina Mun Pitää 16th (SF)
06. 025/1 | Russia ˇ Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices 2nd
07. 025/1 | Norway ˇ Mřrland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me 8th
08. 025/1 | Slovenia ˇ Maraaya - Here For You 14th
09. 033/1 | Azerbaijan ˇ Elnur Huseynov - Hour Of The Wolf 12th
10. 050/1 | Iceland ˇ Maria Olafs - Unbroken 15th (SF)
11. 050/1 | United Kingdom ˇ Electro Velvet - Still In Love With You 24th
12. 050/1 | Belgium ˇ Loďc Nottet - Rhythm Inside 4th
13. 066/1 | Spain ˇ Edurne - Amanecer 21st
14. 066/1 | Albania ˇ Elhaida Dani - I'm Alive 17th
15. 080/1 | Armenia ˇ Genealogy - Face The Shadow 16th

(Oddschecker)


2014
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 7 2014, 05:03 PM) *
01. 6/4 Armenia (Aram MP3 - Not Alone) 4th
02. 11/2 Sweden (Sanna Nielsen - Undo) 3rd
03. 12/1 Denmark (Basim - Cliché Love Song) 9th
04. 12/1 Norway (Carl Espen - Silent Storm) 8th
05. 18/1 Hungary (András Kállay-Saunders - Running) 5th
06. 20/1 United Kingdom (Molly - Children Of The Universe) 17th
07. 20/1 Ukraine (Mariya Yaremchuk - Tick-Tock) 6th
08. 20/1 Azerbaijan (Dilara Kazimova - Start A Fire) 22nd
09. 25/1 Belgium (Axel Hirsoux - Mother) 14th (SF)
10. 25/1 Romania (Paula Seling & OVI - Miracle) 12th
11. 40/1 Russia (Tolmachevy Sisters - Shine) 7th
12. 66/1 Italy (Emma Marrone - La Mia Cittŕ) 21st
13. 66/1 Greece (Freaky Fortune feat. Risky Kidd - Rise Up) 20th
14. 66/1 Israel (Mei Finegold - Same Heart) 14th (SF)
15. 66/1 Ireland (Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith - Heartbeat) 12th (SF)

(Oddschecker)


2013
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 18 2013, 06:06 PM) *
01. 6/4 Denmark (Emmelie de Forest - Only Teardrops) 1st
02. 8/1 Norway (Margaret Berger - I Feed You My Love) 4th
03. 12/1 Ukraine (Zlata Ognevich - Gravity) 3rd
04. 16/1 Russia (Dina Garipova - What If) 5th
05. 16/1 Sweden (Robin Stjernberg - You) 14th
06. 19/1 The Netherlands (Anouk - Birds) 9th
07. 25/1 Germany (Cascada - Glorious) 21st
08. 25/1 Georgia (Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani - Waterfall) 15th
09. 25/1 Italy (Marco Mengoni - L'Essenziale) 7th
10. 33/1 Azerbaijan (Farid Mammadov - Hold Me) 2nd
11. 40/1 San Marino (Valentina Monetta - Crisalide (Vola)) 11th (SF)
12. 50/1 United Kingdom (Bonnie Tyler - Believe In Me) 19th
13. 66/1 Ireland (Ryan Dolan - Only Love Survives) 26th
14. 66/1 Belarus (Alyona Lanskaya - Solayoh) 16th
15. 75/1 Greece (Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis - Alcohol Is Free) 6th

(Oddschecker)


2012
QUOTE(David @ Apr 25 2012, 11:52 AM) *
01. 9/4 Sweden (Loreen - Euphoria) 1st
02. 8/1 Italy (Nina Zilli - L'amore č femmina (Out Of Love)) 9th
03. 10/1 Russia (Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody) 2nd
04. 11/1 Serbia (Željko Joksimović - Nije Ljubav Stvar) 3rd
05. 14/1 Denmark (Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better) 23rd
06. 14/1 United Kingdom (Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free) 25th
07. 16/1 Ireland (Jedward - Waterline) 19th
08. 18/1 Spain (Pastora Soler - Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me)) 10th
09. 20/1 Germany (Roman Lob - Standing Still) 8th
10. 20/1 Norway (Tooji - Stay) 26th
11. 22/1 Iceland (Gréta Salóme and Jónsi - Never Forget) 20th
12. 25/1 Greece (Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac) 17th
13. 28/1 Romania (Mandinga - Zaleilah) 12th
14. 28/1 Turkey (Can Bonomo - Love Me Back) 7th
15. 33/1 Cyprus (Ivi Adamou - La La Love) 16th

(Sky Bet)


2011
QUOTE(Pop B!tch @ Apr 24 2011, 08:45 PM) *
01. 4/1 France (Amaury Vassili - Sognu) 15th
02. 13/2 Estonia (Getter Jaani - Rockefeller Street) 24th
03. 7/1 United Kingdom (Blue - I Can) 11th
04. 8/1 Hungary (Kati Wolf - What About My Dreams?) 22nd
05. 10/1 Sweden (Eric Saade - Popular) 3rd
06. 10/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Dino Merlin - Love In Rewind) 6th
07. 12/1 Azerbaijan (Ell & Nikki - Running Scared) 1st
08. 12/1 Norway (Stella Mwangi - Haba Haba) 17th (SF)
09. 12/1 Germany (Lena - Taken By A Stranger) 10th
10. 20/1 Russia (Alexej Vorobjov - Get You) 16th
11. 20/1 Ireland (Jedward - Lipstick) 8th
12. 20/1 Denmark (A Friend In London - New Tomorrow) 5th
13. 33/1 Italy (Raphael Gualazzi - Madness Of Love) 2nd
14. 40/1 Romania (Hotel FM - Change) 17th
15. 40/1 Poland (Magdalena Tul - Jestem) 19th (SF)

(Paddy Power)
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Ryan.
post Jan 20 2016, 06:02 PM
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2010
QUOTE(gooddelta @ May 6 2010, 11:36 AM) *
01. 5/2 Germany (Lena - Satellite) 1st
02. 5/2 Azerbaijan (Safura - Drip Drop) 5th
03. 8/1 Denmark (Chanée & N'evergreen - In A Moment Like This) 4th
04. 8/1 Israel (Harel Skaat - Milim) 14th
05. 14/1 Armenia (Eva Rivas - Apricot Stone) 7th
06. 16/1 Croatia (Feminnem - Lako Je Sve) 13th (SF)
07. 20/1 Norway (Didrik Solli-Tangen - My Heart Is Yours) 20th
08. 22/1 Sweden (Anna Bergendahl - This Is My Life) 11th (SF)
09. 25/1 Ireland (Niamh Kavanagh - It's For You) 23rd
10. 28/1 Greece (Giorgos Alkaios and Friends - OPA) 8th

(William Hill)


2009
QUOTE(David @ Apr 7 2009, 12:16 AM) *
01. 6/4 Norway (Alexander Rybak - Fairytale) 1st
02. 9/2 Greece (Sakis Rouvas - This Is Our Night) 7th
03. 8/1 Turkey (Hadise - Düm Tek Tek) 4th
04. 8/1 Montenegro (Andrea Demirović - Just Get Out Of My Life) 11th (SF)
05. 10/1 Azerbaijan (AySel and Arash - Always) 3rd
06. 12/1 Sweden (Malena Ernman - La Voix) 21st
07. 14/1 Malta (Chiara - What If We?) 22nd
08. 18/1 United Kingdom (Jade Ewen - It's My Time) 5th
09. 25/1 Estonia (Urban Symphony - Rändajad) 6th
10. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Regina - Bistra Voda) 9th
11. 25/1 France (Patricia Kaas - Et S'il Fallait Le Faire) 8th
12. 25/1 Spain (Soraya - La Noche Es Para Mí (The Night Is For Me)) 24th
13. 25/1 Russia (Anastasiya Prikhodko - Mamo) 11th
14. 33/1 Finland (Waldo's People - Lose Control) 25th
15. 33/1 Iceland (Yohanna - Is It True?) 2nd

(Paddy Power)


2008
QUOTE(David @ Apr 23 2008, 10:40 PM) *
01. 7/2 Russia (Dima Bilan - Believe) 1st
02. 9/2 Serbia (Jelena Tomašević feat. Bora Dugić - Oro) 6th
03. 5/1 Ireland (Dustin The Turkey - Irelande Douze Pointe) 15th (SF)
04. 11/2 Armenia (Sirusho - Qele, Qele) 4th
05. 7/1 Ukraine (Ani Lorak - Shady Lady) 2nd
06. 9/1 Sweden (Charlotte Perrelli - Hero) 18th
07. 18/1 Bulgaria (Deep Zone and Balthazar - DJ, Take Me Away) 11th (SF)
08. 20/1 Greece (Kalomira - Secret Combination) 3rd
09. 20/1 Spain (Rodolfo Chikilicuatre - Baila El Chiki-Chiki) 16th
10. 22/1 France (Sébastian Tellier) 19th
11. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Laka - Pokušaj) 10th
12. 25/1 Latvia (Pirates Of The Sea - Wolves Of The Sea) 12th
13. 25/1 Turkey (Mor ve Ötesi - Deli) 7th
14. 25/1 Switzerland (Paolo Meneguzzi - Era Stupendo) 13th (SF)
15. 25/1 Romania (Nico and Vlad - Pe-o Margine de Lume) 20th

(Paddy Power)


2007
QUOTE(David @ Apr 16 2007, 09:54 PM) *
01. 5/1 Switzerland (DJ Bobo - Vampires Are Alive) 20th (SF)
02. 7/1 Sweden (The Ark - The Worrying Kind) 18th
03. 8/1 Serbia (Marija Šerifović - Molitva) 1st
04. 8/1 Belarus (Koldun - Work Your Magic) 6th
05. 11/1 Ukraine (Verka Serduchka - Dancing Lasha Tumbai) 2nd
06. 11/1 Bulgaria (Elitsa Todorova and Stoyan Yankoulov - Water) 5th
07. 12/1 Russia (Serebro - Song #1) 3rd
08. 14/1 Greece (Sarbel - Yassou Maria) 7th
09. 16/1 Romania (Todomondo - Liubi, Liubi, I Love You) 13th
10. 16/1 Cyprus (Evridiki - Comme ci, Comme ça) 15th (SF)
11. 20/1 Slovenia (Alenka Gotar - Cvet Z Juga) 15th
12. 20/1 United Kingdom (Scooch - Flying The Flag (For You)) 22nd
13. 20/1 Malta (Olivia Lewis - Vertigo) 25th (SF)
14. 25/1 Latvia (Bonaparti.lv - Questa Notte) 16th
15. 25/1 Spain (D'NASH - I Love You Mi Vida) 20th

(Paddy Power)


Last year was pretty predictable following a very unpredictable 2014!
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Ryan.
post Feb 18 2016, 05:51 PM
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Again not that it means much but Poland's odds have been slashed to 10/1 and are now third favourites! *.*
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Ryan.
post Feb 21 2016, 07:53 PM
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And they have been shortened drastically again and Poland now find themselves 7/2 favourites!
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Yuki On Ice~
post Feb 21 2016, 07:56 PM
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Cool Me Down is not a Eurovision winner. Some people are just getting a bit excited.
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Ryan.
post Feb 21 2016, 07:58 PM
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I agree, I feel like it'd be low top 10 depending if she can perform it live as well as it needs to be performed, or if it is a car crash live then something along the lines of Kati Wolf. That said, I still am unconvinced Margaret will win the national final! Even though there's so little money in the market at the moment it must be like the first ever time Poland have topped the odds though. kink.gif
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AdamAloud
post Mar 5 2016, 10:00 PM
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I imagine Poland will PLUMMET any minute now
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LexC
post Mar 5 2016, 10:01 PM
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It was already as low as 38.0 just now I heard!
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Ryan.
post Mar 5 2016, 11:21 PM
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Sweden officially top on Oddschecker now...

At this stage I would LOVE Dami to pull out a mega pop tune and take victory!
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Liаm
post Mar 7 2016, 03:16 AM
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I really have confidence Dami can be a strong contender <3 Other than that, from what's revealed so far I can just see Sweden taking it again with bloody Frans, and I can't see who else is left to reveal being the ones to pull that off. I think Ukraine might be a bit of a talking point because of the strong emotion in the song and how it will be performed/come across but maybe only in an "impressive top 5" sort of way.

I mean nobody would have called the top 2 in 2014 at this point so maybe we'll have another random year like that laugh.gif
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gooddelta
post Mar 17 2016, 07:46 PM
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Malta's odds have massively shortened...they're third favourites with some bookies now behind Russia in the lead pretty much everywhere. Franz second but seems to be drifting a little, which surprises me seeing as it seems a lot more 'European hit friendly' than Russia.
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AdamAloud
post Mar 17 2016, 07:52 PM
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Take that revenge Ira *.*
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Ryan.
post Mar 17 2016, 07:54 PM
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They are actually drifting a bit, the best you could get prior to the reveal following the hype since yesterday was 11/1 and now you can get 20/1 but I don't think they deserve to drift any further!
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gooddelta
post Mar 22 2016, 04:57 PM
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Interesting that Russia are firm favourites to win, with Sweden drifting back to 5/1, considering it's pretty obvious that Frans will have the bigger hit outside the contest. Will certainly be interesting to see if the voting mirrors this or if Frans is just a Common Linnets case of being a solid hit throughout Europe and having more success than the winner but not winning the contest.

Then again, Grande Amore won the televote last year yet didn't perform anywhere near as well as Heroes in European charts.
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Ryan.
post Mar 22 2016, 05:01 PM
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I can't see anyone other than Russia or Sweden winning at this stage but maybe I can't see past their reputations. I think if both ended up in the first half then I'd make Sweden favourite of the two, but if Russia end up second half then it'll be theirs to lose.

Outside these two I think I'd have Serbia as one of the most likely winners which is obviously an unusual opinion, but a late draw could see that firmly inside the top 5 at the very least. Going to do a full odds update now as I haven't really analysed them outside of the top 5/6!
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ionderella
post Mar 22 2016, 05:03 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan. @ Mar 22 2016, 08:01 PM) *
Outside these two I think I'd have Serbia as one of the most likely winners which is obviously an unusual opinion, but a late draw could see that firmly inside the top 5 at the very least. Going to do a full odds update now as I haven't really analysed them outside of the top 5/6!

YASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
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Ryan.
post Mar 22 2016, 06:34 PM
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So the first complete odds update is here! cheer.gif As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with ties split by latest Betfair Exchange odds.

01 | 002/1 | Russia ˇ Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One
02 | 013/2 | Sweden ˇ Frans - If I Were Sorry
03 | 011/1 | Croatia ˇ Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse
04 | 014/1 | Australia ˇ Dami Im - Sound Of Silence
05 | 016/1 | Malta ˇ Ira Losco - Walk On Water
06 | 018/1 | Latvia ˇ Justs - Heartbeat
07 | 020/1 | France ˇ Amir - J'ai cherché
08 | 025/1 | Serbia ˇ Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter)
09 | 025/1 | Ukraine ˇ Jamala - 1944
10 | 030/1 | Azerbaijan ˇ Samra - Miracle

11 | 033/1 | Armenia ˇ Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave
12 | 033/1 | Italy ˇ Francesca Michielin - No Degree Of Separation
13 | 033/1 | Cyprus ˇ Minus One - Alter Ego
14 | 040/1 | Bulgaria ˇ Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime
15 | 040/1 | Spain ˇ Barei - Say Yay!
16 | 045/1 | Germany ˇ Jamie-Lee - Ghost
17 | 050/1 | Hungary ˇ Freddie - Pioneer
18 | 060/1 | Iceland ˇ Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling
19 | 066/1 | Poland ˇ Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life
20 | 066/1 | Norway ˇ Agnete - Icebreaker

21 | 080/1 | The Netherlands ˇ Douwe Bob - Slow Down
22 | 080/1 | Czech Republic ˇ Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand
23 | 100/1 | Austria ˇ ZOË - Loin d'ici
24 | 125/1 | Lithuania ˇ Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night
25 | 125/1 | United Kingdom ˇ Joe and Jake - You're Not Alone
26 | 125/1 | Ireland ˇ Nicky Byrne - Sunlight
27 | 200/1 | Estonia ˇ Jüri Pootsmann - Play
28 | 200/1 | Denmark ˇ Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love
29 | 300/1 | Belgium ˇ Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure
30 | 300/1 | Israel ˇ Hovi Star - Made Of Stars

31 | 300/1 | Finland ˇ Sandhja - Sing It Away
32 | 300/1 | F.Y.R. Macedonia ˇ Kaliopi - Dona
33 | 300/1 | Romania ˇ Ovidiu Anton - Moment Of Silence
34 | 300/1 | Greece ˇ Argo - Utopian Land
35 | 500/1 | San Marino ˇ Serhat - I Didn't Know
36 | 500/1 | Switzerland ˇ Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind
37 | 500/1 | Belarus ˇ IVAN - Help You Fly
38 | 500/1 | Slovenia ˇ ManuElla - Blue And Red
39 | 500/1 | Albania ˇ Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale
40 | 500/1 | Bosnia & Herzegovina ˇ Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je

41 | 500/1 | Moldova ˇ Lidia Isac - Falling Stars
42 | 500/1 | Georgia ˇ Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold
43 | 500/1 | Montenegro ˇ Highway - The Real Thing
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Ryan.
post Mar 22 2016, 06:39 PM
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My each way tips at this point would probably be Hungary, Iceland, The Netherlands and Lithuania in terms of big priced options and as I said earlier, Serbia each way at 25/1 seems very good value too.
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Umi
post Mar 22 2016, 06:52 PM
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France top 10, really?
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