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LexC
post Mar 23 2016, 06:34 PM
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By popular (i.e. Iz and Ryan) demand I bestow upon you, fair Eurovision Forum, the 2016 Prediciton Thread *.*

A few general pointers before we begin;

• Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think the UK will come last’ to full predictions of everyone’s positions with points and justifications essays.
• Come the morning of May 15th every single one of us who predicted in here will have egg on our faces to some degree. Last year was a relatively egg free year but if you want to have some retrospective hilarious reading then check the 2014 thread. Don't try and run away from predicting wrong and own your inaccuracies
• Everyone’s predictions are valid, but sometimes if people are being stupid and predicting PKN to come 2nd in the semi then I will be here to provide the slapping dahn!

Now, go forth and predict!
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Ryan.
post Mar 23 2016, 06:53 PM
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Semi-Final One
01 Russia
02 Azerbaijan
03 Croatia
04 Iceland
05 The Netherlands
06 Hungary
07 Cyprus
08 Malta
09 Armenia
10 Bosnia & Herzegovina
11 Greece
12 Czech Republic
13 Estonia
14 Austria
15 Finland
16 Moldova
17 San Marino
18 Montenegro


Semi-Final Two
01 Ukraine
02 Serbia
03 Latvia
04 Australia
05 Lithuania
06 Norway
07 Romania
08 Bulgaria
09 F.Y.R. Macedonia
10 Denmark
11 Ireland
12 Belgium
13 Poland
14 Israel
15 Belarus
16 Slovenia
17 Albania
18 Switzerland
19 Georgia


Final
France 13th-17th
Germany 16th-20th
Italy 8th-12th
Spain 17th-21st
Sweden 1st-5th
United Kingdom 21st-25th
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Yuki On Ice~
post Mar 24 2016, 05:14 PM
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Prior to running order, so I'll have to do another one when that comes out but just based on halves and the strength of these songs...

Semi 1

Definites

01. Russia
02. Azerbaijan
03. Iceland

Russia and Azerbaijan are self-explanatory. I can't really see a situation where Iceland will fail either, in the second half, competently performed pop song and not lacking for Nordics.

Most likely through

04. Malta
05. Cyprus
06. Czech Republic
07. Finland

Malta is another competent pop song, should have few problems. Cyprus, there's nothing else like it and second half is fine. I think this'll be the year Czech Republic finally make it, ballads don't tend to have problems attracting votes and in the second half.. yeah it should be okay. And I think Finland will actually light up the first half full of fun rather well, I'm not seeing the definite DNQ calls for it. It's only when it gets to the final, especially if it gets put anywhere near Barei, that it'll look outclassed.

Could be through
08. Greece
09. Croatia
10. Armenia

Never count out Greece, even with the messiness of this song, I think they'll be through too. Armenia, I almost put this out because of how messy/shouty it is but it's quite tough for them to DNQ and it'll probably sneak in in the end. Starting to feel Croatia is a potential shock flop in a strong semi but for now with the odds like they are I'll have them scraping in.

Potential for upset
11. San Marino
12. Austria
13. Hungary
14. Estonia
15. Bosnia and Herzegovina
16. The Netherlands

San Marino, with the disco version, now seems to have the 'joke entry' niche nailed down. It might very well get close to qualifying and I wouldn't even be surprised if it were the 10th one announced. Austria, it might seem like an easy DNQ in a tough semi but I feel there's a real chance that jury power could see it in, I'm preparing for that not happening, but there's an equal chance it could in the second half. There is France voting in this semi. Hungary and Estonia I feel both suffer from the same sort of problem, deep voiced guys singing midtempos. One of them could qualify, Hungary has a slightly stronger song, Estonia has a slightly stronger position but I'd be surprised at both of them in. This is probably the year where Bosnia will get unstuck, it stands out but I think it'll just seem bizarre to most people outside of the Balkans. Country can so easily hit but I think Calm After The Storm was a one off and Netherlands won't be able to make this work unfortunately.

DOA
17. Moldova
18. Montenegro

Unless Moldova do a bang up job with the newest version, yeah. First half and the way they've been going the last few years, it's a shame for them. And I can't see any situation where Montenegro gets through this time.

Semi 2

Definites
01. Ukraine
02. Australia
03. Bulgaria
04. Latvia
05. Lithuania

Ukraine has had loads of media attention, Australia have one of the biggest raw power songs in a less competitive semi, Bulgaria have everything poised as going right for them, and Latvia are trading on the same thing as last year. Meanwhile, Lithuania have one of the most favourable set of neighbours they could ask for and with this song, no chance they're out.

Probably
06. Serbia
07. Norway
08. Denmark
09. Romania
10. Belgium

There's a lot of stuff here that could be borderline so I think picking from the second half seems sensible and I can easily see all of the above as qualifiers, even if they'd be less certain ones in another semi.

just out
11. Ireland
12. Slovenia
13. Poland

Slovenia could be quite fun and is in the second half, Poland has a 'nice song' that could do what Cyprus last year did, Ireland may just sneak through on "name power", but they're less likely than some other ones here.

Probably out
14. Macedonia
15. Georgia
16. Israel

Georgia have a strong song in the end but it's not what Eurovision voters vote on at all so they're probably out. Israel and Macedonia tend to have a tough time of it anyway and with both in the first half, they could easily be sacrificed. Not ruling out Kaliopi repeating what she did in 2012 but I think she has more of an uphill struggle this time.

DOA
17. Albania
18. Switzerland
19. Belarus

Switzerland never have luck do they. Albania I don't think have an instant enough song. And maybe I should be careful before declaring Belarus out but I think there's too much for him to overcome here.
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LexC
post Mar 24 2016, 06:17 PM
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Was planning on waiting until the running order was out but seeing as that might be a while, here's predictions 1.0 from me.

SEMI ONE

Definites

01 Russia
02 Iceland
03 Armenia


Russia and Armenia both have plenty of reliable friendly countries in the semi and good/effective song packages. Iceland's by far the most 'show stopping' number of the whole semi and in the second half with a pretty reliable qualification record so they're as good as through

Semi-Definites

04 Malta
05 Azerbaijan

Malta's a strong contemporary pop song and pretty much every corrupt jury is in this semi so they shouldn't have too much of a problem. Only thing stopping Azerbaijan being in the definite category is the fact that under the new system they would have DNQ'd last year with what, to me at least, should have got them safely through that semi so there's a small amount of doubt in my mind but the song is certainly strong enough.

Sneakers

06 Croatia
07 Czech Republic
08 Cyprus
09 Netherlands
10 Austria

To my mind there's eight songs fighting over five spots in the final. Croatia should have a strong jury support plus there's enough of a balkan/central Europe contingent that will go for them as well as countries like Sweden who generally appreciate a strong and simple package. This reasoning also applies tho the Czechs who should also probably be expecting the "Slovenia treatment" with the producers giving them a good draw to make sure they qualify and stay in the contest next year. Cyprus stands out pretty well as the one accessible rock number but I do wonder if a Turkey 2011 situation might be on the cards if they don't stage it well/are lacking the energy to really sell it. Netherlands should qualify on jury support since Trijntje bizzarely managed 5th in the juries last year despite that car crash of a stage show with what, on record at least, is a similar light americana mid-tempo number (so realistically Douwe Bob just has to not dress up like an Indian chiefton or in a black jumpsuit). Austria have a few neighbours and France voting as well as the fact that the semis are disproportionately voted on by fans/people who are expecting or know that they like the Eurovision Song Contest which I think is enough to squeeze a 10th place.

Just Missing Out

11 Greece
12 Hungary
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina

I think this is the year guys! Greece have Cyprus, Armenia, France, a few small diasporas elswehere...and that's it as far as friendly votes goes. Even considering that, they're first half with a rap song which 9 times out of ten is Eurovision kriptonite. I know people will say Watch My Dance to this but that at least had strong staging, was mostly in English, closed the semi and as rap songs go was far more accessible than this. Hungary I think will be completely overshadowed in the dramatic staging stakes by Armenia and the other strong male pop songs such as Cyprus and Russia. Bosnia has a lot of the same problems as Greece but with the added effect of less automatic points and generally being much more of a mess of a song anyway.

Not quite DOA

14 Finland
15 Estonia

There aren't actually that many big uptempo party songs this year so if they open the show or have any other kind of draw that is good to them then Finland could make it, BUT, the fact that it only came a distant third in its televote makes me doubt that it has the legs to do much in the Eurovision televote. Estonia sounds like the sort of thing that ordinarily would get lapped up by juries but by the end of 18 songs I think they'll mostly have been forgotten. I don't think the moody Stig Rasta jazzy lightning is going to strike twice.

DOA

16 San Marino
17 Moldova
18 Montenegro

San Marino can probably leapfrog to 3rd last thanks to some "helpful" juries and the disco revamp (You might not be able to polish a turd but you can roll it in glitter!) Moldova and Montenegro will have their fans and Moldova might have been able to qualify out of semi 2 but I can't see them getting enough love from either juries, the public or potentially both.

~~~

Semi 2 predix coming at some point over the Easter Weekend because what else better have I got to do over a bank holiday?
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ScottyEm
post Mar 24 2016, 07:54 PM
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In no particular order, I predict:

Semi 1

Russia (they will win this)
Azerbaijan
Croatia
Iceland
Hungary
Cyprus
Malta
Armenia
Bosnia/Herzegovina
Moldova (I think it can sneak in)

Semi 2

Latvia (they will win this)
Serbia
Ukraine
Romania
Australia
Lithuania
Norway
Bulgaria
Belgium

I can't decide on a 10th so I'm plucking in the air here:

Macedonia


This post has been edited by ScottyEm: Mar 24 2016, 07:57 PM
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LexC
post Mar 24 2016, 10:56 PM
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Remember how I promised to give you Semi 2 over the weekend? well surprise motherfuckers it's here already!

SEMI TWO

Definites

01 Ukraine
02 Latvia
03 Lithuania

All of these have strong songs and/or neighbour voting in this semi so I'd be shocked if any of these didn't get through (Lithuania in particular have qualified with far worse).

Semi-Definites

04 Bulgaria
05 Serbia
06 Romania
07 Australia

Only thing stopping Bulgaria being in the definite category is their questionable record. Serbia and Romania have strong diasporas and good songs so should both be through with relative ease. Australia is being overrated by fans a touch and without Australia being a novelty in Eurovision I doubt the televote will be as strong as their jury vote but it should still be enough to qualify.

Sneakers

08 Norway
09 Belgium
10 Ireland

If we were talking semi final one then I'd think all of these three wouldn't make it but alas. Norway's tempo change isn't quite as jarring live and they'll have enough appeal to jury and to the west to get through but I wouldn't be surprised if they added another entry to their last places. Belgium doesn't really have any other joly party song to contend with, especially in the second half which should make it memorable enough to get a qualification. Ireland should sneak a 10th based on name recognition and some points from the baltic and scandi contingents in the semi and then not do very much at all in the Final.

Just Missing Out

11 Israel
12 Macedonia

Israeli ballads have been a bit hit and miss at Eurovision but I think 'Made of Stars' is appealing enough to at least contend for qualification. I'd initally put Macedonia in the 'sneakers' group but being first half and with probably most of the ex-Yugo votes going to Serbia who have a far stronger song than them and it being nowhere near as good at being able to show off Kaliopi's voice, I think that's enough going against it to knock it to twelfth. Still, if one of Norway/Belgium/Ireland falters then I can very easily see one of these two taking their place instead.

Not quite DOA

13 Denmark
14 Poland
15 Slovenia
16 Albania

Poland and Albania have at least decent diasporas in this semi and Denmark and Slovenia have songs in the second half who could get through by virtue of being 'nice' and middle of the road but they'd all need other countries to majorly mess it up to be in with a shot which is leaving too much to chance.

DOA

17 Belarus
18 Switzerland
19 Georgia

Not even wolves and nudity can get Belarus to 10th, Switzerland's potential vote pool is being absorbed by all the other powerful females and I don't think Thursday night at the Eurovision Song Contest is the market for...whatever it is that Georgia is categorised as.


This post has been edited by sugabloke: Mar 24 2016, 10:58 PM
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LexC
post Mar 24 2016, 11:01 PM
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And since Ryan did it:

France: 14th
Germany: 23rd
Italy: 21st
Spain: 5th
Sweden: 3rd
United Kingdom: 24th
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Qassändra
post Mar 24 2016, 11:42 PM
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Sweden are winning by a mile (and I have £30 on said outcome, as any self-respecting definitive prediction ought to - LOOKING AT YOU MICHAEL).
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Styles Bilinski
post Mar 25 2016, 01:20 AM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Mar 24 2016, 11:42 PM) *
Sweden are winning by a mile (and I have £30 on said outcome, as any self-respecting definitive prediction ought to - LOOKING AT YOU MICHAEL).


I have a fiver on it - not because the odds looked very good for a big payout (I got 4/1 and need one of my each way bets to happen too in order to make back the money I've spent in total whistle.gif), I'm just rooting for it to happen so much magic.gif
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Umi
post Mar 25 2016, 02:16 AM
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QUOTE(sugabloke @ Mar 24 2016, 11:01 PM) *
Italy: 21st
Spain: 5th

I'm not expecting all too much from 'Nessun grado' but I would probably expect the reverse of this to be more likely. Where are you expecting Barei's votes to come from (is it really gonna be the fun song of choix?)? Spain from memory have been quite jury-reliant for their recent good results and that's just not happening for 'Say Yay!', but it feels too limp to attract the public.
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Yuki On Ice~
post Mar 25 2016, 11:48 AM
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I can see Barei coming in a solid mid-table. I'm expecting a fair amount low points across the board for it. It's been doing fairly well for a Eurovision song on Spotify, hasn't it? But despite that, I still see Italy doing the best of the big 5.
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Qassändra
post Mar 25 2016, 12:55 PM
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I can see Barei failing utterly miserably and coming bottom three. It's a genre not well suited to the Eurovision stage, let alone with long instrumental breaks with nothing to fill them other than MINCING ABOUT, and that second verse really is DIABOLICALLY ENDLESS. It isn't a tight pop song at all, but it's not trying to be anything other than a pop song. A song you might listen to at home or on the radio, but one that I think will go very, very badly on the night.
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LexC
post Mar 25 2016, 01:59 PM
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QUOTE(Umi @ Mar 25 2016, 02:16 AM) *
I'm not expecting all too much from 'Nessun grado' but I would probably expect the reverse of this to be more likely. Where are you expecting Barei's votes to come from (is it really gonna be the fun song of choix?)? Spain from memory have been quite jury-reliant for their recent good results and that's just not happening for 'Say Yay!', but it feels too limp to attract the public.


Say Yay is the one song to be making inroads in the Spotify/iTunes charts around the continent other than If I Were Sorry (which its quite a bit behind, but still) and she's enough of a captivating performer to win a NF from the death slot with no major label backing which says to me that it's good at getting votes even when the odds are against it. I'll grant you that it could just as easily die on its arse, especially if its not staged well, but I have a good feeling in my waters about this one.

Nessun Grado, however, I'm fairly certain will get lost/outclassed by the myriad of other 'powerful' female entries in the mix. Juries might be kind to it but I can't see the televotes rolling in for it, especially from countries outside of the Adriatic coast and Malta/San Marino.
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ScottyEm
post Mar 25 2016, 05:43 PM
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I agree Spain is probably the most difficult one to predict. I reckon it'll be a fanboy favourite but probably slips into the bottom 10.... Sadly, as I love it too.
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AdamAloud
post Mar 28 2016, 04:31 PM
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Was going to wait for the running order, but here goes nothing!

Semi 1
01. Russia
02. Iceland
03. Azerbaijan
04. Malta
05. Croatia
06. Cyprus
07. Armenia
08. Bosnia & Herzegovina
09. Greece
10. The Netherlands
---
11. Hungary
12. Czech Republic
13. Austria
14. Estonia
15. Moldova
16. Finland
17. Montenegro
18. San Marino

Realistically the only 2 I'm 100% on not seeing in the final are Montenegro & San Marino. I can't remember such a close semi in terms of potential qualifiers.

Semi 2
01. Ukraine
02. Lithuania
03. Latvia
04. Bulgaria
05. Australia
06. Norway
07. Denmark
08. Serbia
09. Belgium
10. Romania
---
11. Poland
12. Israel
13. Macedonia
14. Ireland
15. Slovenia
16. Switzerland
17. Belarus
18. Albania
19. Georgia

On the other hand, only the top 6 here feel like finalists, the rest are lucky they're not in semi 1.
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Ryan.
post Apr 8 2016, 11:50 PM
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Semi-Final One
01 Russia
02 Azerbaijan
03 Iceland
04 Malta
05 Croatia
06 Bosnia & Herzegovina
07 Armenia
08 The Netherlands
09 Cyprus
10 Estonia
11 Hungary
12 Czech Republic
13 Greece
14 Finland
15 Austria
16 Moldova
17 San Marino
18 Montenegro


I've stuck with a Russia and Azerbaijan top 2, with Iceland now up to third with their very helpful running order slot and surely what will be one of the stand-out stage shows. Malta's position will now be inflated with the pimp slot, plus the jury love Malta usually has always inflates positions more notably in the semis than the final. If there is going to be one major shock I think Croatia could be in trouble but they should be safely through and Bosnia & Herzegovina will now be safe with their draw. Balkan ballads have qualified nicely for Montenegro in past years and I don't see why that won't continue here for Bosnia. Cyprus may be a bit more borderline now, likewise The Netherlands but I'm still banking on the latter being through while everyone else disagrees.

Estonia could now sneak through instead of Hungary as, like I said in the other thread, I'm not sure we'll get four qualifiers in a row from the first half. While Czech Republic will stand-out genre-wise between Russia and Cyprus, I worry being after a favourite will lead her to be overshadowed Mélanie René style although not as dramatically, but will mean another DNQ. Greece surely can't survive that draw and this semi with that song and the bottom 5 are near enough as we were, can't see any way those 5 are qualifying unless Sandhja has a very very effective stage show.

Semi-Final Two
01 Ukraine
02 Australia
03 Serbia
04 Lithuania
05 Latvia
06 Norway
07 Bulgaria
08 F.Y.R. Macedonia
09 Romania
10 Belgium
11 Israel
12 Denmark
13 Poland
14 Slovenia
15 Belarus
16 Ireland
17 Albania
18 Georgia
19 Switzerland


Ukraine have a more accessible 'Suus' in a way, and Rona did very well with a worse draw so Ukraine could win this semi and end up mid-top 10 in the final. I'm seeing the "winner" appeal more and more in Australia as time passes and while it won't get anywhere near doing that in the final, it stands out in this weaker semi now with its draw. Serbia, Lithuania and Latvia all have a couple of voting friends and very strong singers and songs and should be 100% safe. Norway and Bulgaria could manage Kati Wolf/Ivi Adamou-esque results with fan favourites that don't quite scale the heights the fans may desire, although with a good draw Poli could challenge for the final top 10. Nice draw for Macedonia, and while not a Knez-esque Balkan ballad it should have enough fans to get through. Romania really don't deserve to get through but I can already imagine them going extreme novelty with their staging and getting a "surprise" qualification like Cezar, although the poor draw will make it much more borderline than I previously thought. The last 3 in this semi surely won't all DNQ so I think Belgium could sneak in now.

Israel stand out surprisingly well in a ballad-heavy first few songs, still may be a little too early but should come very close to the top 10. I'm classing Lithuania, Denmark and Ireland as all appealing to the same market and Lithuania outclasses the other two as well as the help of a couple of extra voting friends not that it makes a difference for Donny as he's safe anyway I would expect and should take votes from Lighthouse X and Nicky. Lighthouse X are a better package than Nicky for me, the latter now comes across very very dated and cheesy and I have no idea why anyone would vote for Nicky over the other two and I doubt Westlife fans are going to make a difference! Switzerland could be on for another last place, it's going to be completely forgotten and even Georgia's alternative entry will at least pick up some niche votes. Eneda is a terrific singer and has a terrific draw but unless the juries absolutely adore it, surely there's little televotes coming for Albania.
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LexC
post Apr 11 2016, 03:59 PM
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Semi One

01 Russia
02 Iceland
03 Malta
04 The Netherlands
05 Croatia
06 Czech Republic
07 Armenia
08 Bosnia & Herzegovina
09 Azerbaijan
10 Austria

11 Greece
12 Cyprus
13 Hungary
14 Estonia
15 Finland
16 San Marino
17 Moldova
18 Montenegro

Semi Two

01 Bulgaria
02 Latvia
03 Serbia
04 Australia
05 Ukraine
06 Lithuania
07 Belgium
08 Romania
09 Norway
10 Israel

11 Macedonia
12 Poland
13 Denmark
14 Ireland
15 Slovenia
16 Albania
17 Belarus
18 Georgia
19 Switzerland

Grand Final

01 Bulgaria
02 Russia
03 Sweden
04 Latvia
05 Serbia
06 Iceland
07 The Netherlands
08 Ukraine
09 France
10 Australia

11 Malta
12 Spain
13 Lithuania
14 Croatia
15 Bosnia & Herzegovina
16 Italy
17 Armenia
18 Belgium
19 Romania
20 Czech Republic

21 Azerbaijan
22 Austria
23 Germany
24 Norway
25 Israel
26 United Kingdom
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AdamAloud
post Apr 11 2016, 04:29 PM
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Us finishing below Germany? Really?
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gooddelta
post Apr 11 2016, 04:32 PM
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Only in my dreams are Bulgaria ever winning drama.gif
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Ryan.
post Apr 11 2016, 04:33 PM
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Yeah I think so too, you can tell Jamie-Lee won The Voice and our two didn't - there's just a bit more professionalism about 'Ghost' at least on what we've seen. The BBC could surprise us all with some amazing staging but it isn't going to happen is it...
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