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> Eurovision Song Contest 2017 · Odds, Top 5 | Italy · Portugal · Bulgaria · Sweden · Armenia
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Ryan.
post Feb 19 2017, 12:04 AM
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Of course, it's very very very early to start looking at odds but Betfred has opened their Eurovision betting for 2017 which means we can start to see hype trains form and fade as the national selections come and go. As always, at such an early stage, just a couple of people making bets can cause big shifts in the market and the odds are based on that little bit of money in the market rather than expert opinions, but still let's have a look!

Italy currently lead the way with Francesco on odds of 4/1, no surprise considering his media coverage all over Europe. Following them are the power trio of Sweden, Russia and Australia who are of course up there just for being those countries. Those three are on 9/2, 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. Then we have the comeback kids both on 10/1. These are of course Greece, after their significant misfire last year, and Romania, after their significant misfire too followed by disqualification. Then we have hosts Ukraine on 12/1 and Estonia on 14/1, the latter no doubt due to the strength of their national final.

All other countries are 20/1 or higher at the moment. Probably worth pointing out Iceland at 50/1 and Belarus joint-outsiders at 100/1 considering the former's strong national final and the latter being the go-to fan favourite at the moment! It's never too early to spend your coins on Belarus if you truly think they are top 5 possibilities.

Full list here: Eurovision @ Oddschecker
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Ryan.
post Feb 19 2017, 12:04 AM
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As always I'll copy these over from the 2016 thread so I don't forget about them. They are the odds for the top 10/15 from around a month before each contest according to previous topics in the forum which always provide very interesting reading.

2016
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 13 2016, 06:03 PM) *
01 (01) | 007/4 | Russia · Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 3rd
02 (07) | 013/2 | France · Amir - J'ai cherché 6th
03 (02) | 011/1 | Sweden · Frans - If I Were Sorry 5th
04 (04) | 014/1 | Australia · Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 2nd
05 (05) | 020/1 | Malta · Ira Losco - Walk On Water 12th
06 (09) | 020/1 | Ukraine · Jamala - 1944 1st
07 (11) | 022/1 | Armenia · Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 7th
08 (06) | 022/1 | Latvia · Justs - Heartbeat 15th
09 (08) | 025/1 | Serbia · Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 18th
10 (15) | 033/1 | Spain · Barei - Say Yay! 22nd
11 (14) | 035/1 | Bulgaria · Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 4th
12 (12) | 040/1 | Italy · Francesca Michielin - No Degree Of Separation 16th
13 (03) | 045/1 | Croatia · Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 23rd
14 (19) | 050/1 | Poland · Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 8th
15 (21) | 050/1 | The Netherlands · Douwe Bob - Slow Down 11th

(Oddschecker)


2015
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 25 2015, 06:38 PM) *
01. 006/4 | Sweden · Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes 1st
02. 007/2 | Italy · Il Volo - Grande Amore 3rd
03. 005/1 | Australia · Guy Sebastian - Tonight Again 5th
04. 010/1 | Estonia · Elina Born & Stig Rästa - Goodbye To Yesterday 7th
05. 025/1 | Finland · Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina Mun Pitää 16th (SF)
06. 025/1 | Russia · Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices 2nd
07. 025/1 | Norway · Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me 8th
08. 025/1 | Slovenia · Maraaya - Here For You 14th
09. 033/1 | Azerbaijan · Elnur Huseynov - Hour Of The Wolf 12th
10. 050/1 | Iceland · Maria Olafs - Unbroken 15th (SF)
11. 050/1 | United Kingdom · Electro Velvet - Still In Love With You 24th
12. 050/1 | Belgium · Loïc Nottet - Rhythm Inside 4th
13. 066/1 | Spain · Edurne - Amanecer 21st
14. 066/1 | Albania · Elhaida Dani - I'm Alive 17th
15. 080/1 | Armenia · Genealogy - Face The Shadow 16th

(Oddschecker)


2014
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 7 2014, 05:03 PM) *
01. 6/4 Armenia (Aram MP3 - Not Alone) 4th
02. 11/2 Sweden (Sanna Nielsen - Undo) 3rd
03. 12/1 Denmark (Basim - Cliché Love Song) 9th
04. 12/1 Norway (Carl Espen - Silent Storm) 8th
05. 18/1 Hungary (András Kállay-Saunders - Running) 5th
06. 20/1 United Kingdom (Molly - Children Of The Universe) 17th
07. 20/1 Ukraine (Mariya Yaremchuk - Tick-Tock) 6th
08. 20/1 Azerbaijan (Dilara Kazimova - Start A Fire) 22nd
09. 25/1 Belgium (Axel Hirsoux - Mother) 14th (SF)
10. 25/1 Romania (Paula Seling & OVI - Miracle) 12th
11. 40/1 Russia (Tolmachevy Sisters - Shine) 7th
12. 66/1 Italy (Emma Marrone - La Mia Città) 21st
13. 66/1 Greece (Freaky Fortune feat. Risky Kidd - Rise Up) 20th
14. 66/1 Israel (Mei Finegold - Same Heart) 14th (SF)
15. 66/1 Ireland (Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith - Heartbeat) 12th (SF)

(Oddschecker)


2013
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 18 2013, 06:06 PM) *
01. 6/4 Denmark (Emmelie de Forest - Only Teardrops) 1st
02. 8/1 Norway (Margaret Berger - I Feed You My Love) 4th
03. 12/1 Ukraine (Zlata Ognevich - Gravity) 3rd
04. 16/1 Russia (Dina Garipova - What If) 5th
05. 16/1 Sweden (Robin Stjernberg - You) 14th
06. 19/1 The Netherlands (Anouk - Birds) 9th
07. 25/1 Germany (Cascada - Glorious) 21st
08. 25/1 Georgia (Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani - Waterfall) 15th
09. 25/1 Italy (Marco Mengoni - L'Essenziale) 7th
10. 33/1 Azerbaijan (Farid Mammadov - Hold Me) 2nd
11. 40/1 San Marino (Valentina Monetta - Crisalide (Vola)) 11th (SF)
12. 50/1 United Kingdom (Bonnie Tyler - Believe In Me) 19th
13. 66/1 Ireland (Ryan Dolan - Only Love Survives) 26th
14. 66/1 Belarus (Alyona Lanskaya - Solayoh) 16th
15. 75/1 Greece (Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis - Alcohol Is Free) 6th

(Oddschecker)


2012
QUOTE(David @ Apr 25 2012, 11:52 AM) *
01. 9/4 Sweden (Loreen - Euphoria) 1st
02. 8/1 Italy (Nina Zilli - L'amore è femmina (Out Of Love)) 9th
03. 10/1 Russia (Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody) 2nd
04. 11/1 Serbia (Željko Joksimović - Nije Ljubav Stvar) 3rd
05. 14/1 Denmark (Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better) 23rd
06. 14/1 United Kingdom (Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free) 25th
07. 16/1 Ireland (Jedward - Waterline) 19th
08. 18/1 Spain (Pastora Soler - Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me)) 10th
09. 20/1 Germany (Roman Lob - Standing Still) 8th
10. 20/1 Norway (Tooji - Stay) 26th
11. 22/1 Iceland (Gréta Salóme and Jónsi - Never Forget) 20th
12. 25/1 Greece (Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac) 17th
13. 28/1 Romania (Mandinga - Zaleilah) 12th
14. 28/1 Turkey (Can Bonomo - Love Me Back) 7th
15. 33/1 Cyprus (Ivi Adamou - La La Love) 16th

(Sky Bet)
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Ryan.
post Feb 19 2017, 12:04 AM
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2011
QUOTE(Pop B!tch @ Apr 24 2011, 08:45 PM) *
01. 4/1 France (Amaury Vassili - Sognu) 15th
02. 13/2 Estonia (Getter Jaani - Rockefeller Street) 24th
03. 7/1 United Kingdom (Blue - I Can) 11th
04. 8/1 Hungary (Kati Wolf - What About My Dreams?) 22nd
05. 10/1 Sweden (Eric Saade - Popular) 3rd
06. 10/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Dino Merlin - Love In Rewind) 6th
07. 12/1 Azerbaijan (Ell & Nikki - Running Scared) 1st
08. 12/1 Norway (Stella Mwangi - Haba Haba) 17th (SF)
09. 12/1 Germany (Lena - Taken By A Stranger) 10th
10. 20/1 Russia (Alexej Vorobjov - Get You) 16th
11. 20/1 Ireland (Jedward - Lipstick) 8th
12. 20/1 Denmark (A Friend In London - New Tomorrow) 5th
13. 33/1 Italy (Raphael Gualazzi - Madness Of Love) 2nd
14. 40/1 Romania (Hotel FM - Change) 17th
15. 40/1 Poland (Magdalena Tul - Jestem) 19th (SF)

(Paddy Power)


2010
QUOTE(gooddelta @ May 6 2010, 11:36 AM) *
01. 5/2 Germany (Lena - Satellite) 1st
02. 5/2 Azerbaijan (Safura - Drip Drop) 5th
03. 8/1 Denmark (Chanée & N'evergreen - In A Moment Like This) 4th
04. 8/1 Israel (Harel Skaat - Milim) 14th
05. 14/1 Armenia (Eva Rivas - Apricot Stone) 7th
06. 16/1 Croatia (Feminnem - Lako Je Sve) 13th (SF)
07. 20/1 Norway (Didrik Solli-Tangen - My Heart Is Yours) 20th
08. 22/1 Sweden (Anna Bergendahl - This Is My Life) 11th (SF)
09. 25/1 Ireland (Niamh Kavanagh - It's For You) 23rd
10. 28/1 Greece (Giorgos Alkaios and Friends - OPA) 8th

(William Hill)


2009
QUOTE(David @ Apr 7 2009, 12:16 AM) *
01. 6/4 Norway (Alexander Rybak - Fairytale) 1st
02. 9/2 Greece (Sakis Rouvas - This Is Our Night) 7th
03. 8/1 Turkey (Hadise - Düm Tek Tek) 4th
04. 8/1 Montenegro (Andrea Demirović - Just Get Out Of My Life) 11th (SF)
05. 10/1 Azerbaijan (AySel and Arash - Always) 3rd
06. 12/1 Sweden (Malena Ernman - La Voix) 21st
07. 14/1 Malta (Chiara - What If We?) 22nd
08. 18/1 United Kingdom (Jade Ewen - It's My Time) 5th
09. 25/1 Estonia (Urban Symphony - Rändajad) 6th
10. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Regina - Bistra Voda) 9th
11. 25/1 France (Patricia Kaas - Et S'il Fallait Le Faire) 8th
12. 25/1 Spain (Soraya - La Noche Es Para Mí (The Night Is For Me)) 24th
13. 25/1 Russia (Anastasiya Prikhodko - Mamo) 11th
14. 33/1 Finland (Waldo's People - Lose Control) 25th
15. 33/1 Iceland (Yohanna - Is It True?) 2nd

(Paddy Power)


2008
QUOTE(David @ Apr 23 2008, 10:40 PM) *
01. 7/2 Russia (Dima Bilan - Believe) 1st
02. 9/2 Serbia (Jelena Tomašević feat. Bora Dugić - Oro) 6th
03. 5/1 Ireland (Dustin The Turkey - Irelande Douze Pointe) 15th (SF)
04. 11/2 Armenia (Sirusho - Qele, Qele) 4th
05. 7/1 Ukraine (Ani Lorak - Shady Lady) 2nd
06. 9/1 Sweden (Charlotte Perrelli - Hero) 18th
07. 18/1 Bulgaria (Deep Zone and Balthazar - DJ, Take Me Away) 11th (SF)
08. 20/1 Greece (Kalomira - Secret Combination) 3rd
09. 20/1 Spain (Rodolfo Chikilicuatre - Baila El Chiki-Chiki) 16th
10. 22/1 France (Sébastian Tellier) 19th
11. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Laka - Pokušaj) 10th
12. 25/1 Latvia (Pirates Of The Sea - Wolves Of The Sea) 12th
13. 25/1 Turkey (Mor ve Ötesi - Deli) 7th
14. 25/1 Switzerland (Paolo Meneguzzi - Era Stupendo) 13th (SF)
15. 25/1 Romania (Nico and Vlad - Pe-o Margine de Lume) 20th

(Paddy Power)


2007
QUOTE(David @ Apr 16 2007, 09:54 PM) *
01. 5/1 Switzerland (DJ Bobo - Vampires Are Alive) 20th (SF)
02. 7/1 Sweden (The Ark - The Worrying Kind) 18th
03. 8/1 Serbia (Marija Šerifović - Molitva) 1st
04. 8/1 Belarus (Koldun - Work Your Magic) 6th
05. 11/1 Ukraine (Verka Serduchka - Dancing Lasha Tumbai) 2nd
06. 11/1 Bulgaria (Elitsa Todorova and Stoyan Yankoulov - Water) 5th
07. 12/1 Russia (Serebro - Song #1) 3rd
08. 14/1 Greece (Sarbel - Yassou Maria) 7th
09. 16/1 Romania (Todomondo - Liubi, Liubi, I Love You) 13th
10. 16/1 Cyprus (Evridiki - Comme ci, Comme ça) 15th (SF)
11. 20/1 Slovenia (Alenka Gotar - Cvet Z Juga) 15th
12. 20/1 United Kingdom (Scooch - Flying The Flag (For You)) 22nd
13. 20/1 Malta (Olivia Lewis - Vertigo) 25th (SF)
14. 25/1 Latvia (Bonaparti.lv - Questa Notte) 16th
15. 25/1 Spain (D'NASH - I Love You Mi Vida) 20th

(Paddy Power)
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gooddelta
post Feb 19 2017, 12:15 AM
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Hoping 2017 has the unpredictability of 2011 and 2014, but more like the latter seeing as those surprise results were fantastic and 2011's surprise results were completely crap laugh.gif
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BillyH
post Feb 19 2017, 12:27 AM
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Wow at that 2014 list - neither Conchita or the Common Linnets anywhere near the top two! I suppose Austria were seen as too novelty and Netherlands too chilled until the semi-finals arrived.

Odds didn't do too badly last year for the top seven picks (Malta instead of Bulgaria being the only odd one out) but Russia were by far the favourites right up until the contest, Australia and (eventual winners) Ukraine having a late charge after the semis - even then I think few of us actually predicted 1944 to win. Surprises can certainly still happen!
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Martyn
post Feb 19 2017, 12:41 AM
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How did they get the winner so wrong in 2007?
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BillyH
post Feb 19 2017, 02:04 AM
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Probably because of DJ Bobo's massive popularity in parts of Europe, although fairly unknown here - even his huge Europe-wide smash Chihuahua only went low top 40 here. Vampires Are Alive reached top 10 in a few countries even though it didn't make it out the semis.

This post has been edited by BillyH: Feb 19 2017, 02:13 AM
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David
post Feb 22 2017, 07:33 PM
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Some of those previous odds are brilliant to read. DJ Bobo favourite in 2007 and Jade Ewen so far down in 2009 are two that stick out! Thinking back, I'd have thought Jade's odds would've been around 6/1 or 7/1.

Hope we get an unpredictable year this year, but at the moment I can see the Italian hype gaining more and more momentum. Nothing else selected stands a chance in comparison to that yet. Indeed, if we were to have the final right now with the 13 selected songs, I think the UK would be top two or three!

With the possible exception of Poland, I don't think we've got a single semi final qualifier yet either...
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Ryan.
post Feb 23 2017, 02:44 PM
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I'd expect Belarus and Georgia both to qualify as well, definitely the former. Hungary are also more likely that not in my opinion and Malta can never be ruled out with their jury support!
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BillyH
post Apr 20 2017, 11:44 PM
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Not too long to go and Italy look unbeatable, far and away the favourite on all booking sites. In (distant) second place is Bulgaria, presumably after drastically underestimating Poli last year.

No surprises with Sweden being 3rd, amazingly though Portugal follow it in 4th - that would be a hell of a comeback for them, their first Final appearance since 2010 and first top 10 since 1996, their 6th place that year being their current all-time best. Over-optimistic hype or one of the year's biggest surprises? Belgium complete the top 5 (slipping from #2 a few weeks ago), some offering as low as 20/1 for Blanche which could well be worth a punt.

I do think Italy have all but won this, but other than Sweden god knows about the rest of the top 10. Last year Russia, France, Sweden, Australia and Ukraine at least seemed assured of top ten places, this time I've no idea!
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Ryan.
post Apr 21 2017, 12:31 AM
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Ooh I should quickly jot down the top 15 so I have a record to add to my history posts above!

13/10 Italy
13/2 Bulgaria
9/1 Sweden
14/1 Portugal
20/1 Belgium
33/1 Australia
33/1 Armenia
40/1 France
50/1 Azerbaijan
50/1 Denmark
50/1 Hungary
66/1 Greece
80/1 Romania
100/1 The Netherlands
100/1 Estonia
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AdamAloud
post Apr 23 2017, 06:09 PM
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Highly considering each way bets on Romania, Estonia and The Netherlands!
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Liаm
post Apr 23 2017, 07:05 PM
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I've put £2.50 on Netherlands each way, too tempting!
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David
post Apr 24 2017, 12:08 PM
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Bookies really think it's a foregone conclusion this year - even more so than last year! I knew Russia wouldn't win last year, but I can't see Italy being beaten this year. They're overestimating Sweden too.
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Ryan.
post Apr 26 2017, 03:50 PM
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As we approach rehearsals, here are how the odds have settled over the past few weeks. As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with ties split by latest Betfair Exchange odds.

01 | 0011/8 | Italy · Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
02 | 0007/1 | Bulgaria · Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
03 | 0009/1 | Sweden · Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
04 | 0014/1 | Portugal · Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
05 | 0025/1 | Belgium · Blanche - City Lights
06 | 0025/1 | Australia · Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
07 | 0033/1 | Armenia · Artsvik - Fly With Me
08 | 0050/1 | Azerbaijan · Dihaj - Skeletons
09 | 0050/1 | France · Alma - Requiem
10 | 0066/1 | Romania · Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!

11 | 0066/1 | Greece · Demy - This Is Love
12 | 0066/1 | Hungary · Joci Pápai - Origo
13 | 0066/1 | Denmark · Anja - Where I Am
14 | 0100/1 | Estonia · Koit Toome & Laura - Verona
15 | 0100/1 | Ireland · Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
16 | 0100/1 | The Netherlands · OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
17 | 0100/1 | United Kingdom · Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
18 | 0100/1 | Finland · Norma John - Blackbird
19 | 0150/1 | Croatia · Jacques Houdek - My Friend
20 | 0150/1 | F.Y.R. Macedonia · Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone

21 | 0200/1 | Ukraine · O.Torvald - Time
22 | 0200/1 | Poland · Kasia Moś - Flashlight
23 | 0200/1 | Norway · JOWST - Grab The Moment
24 | 0200/1 | Iceland · Svala - Paper
25 | 0200/1 | Serbia · Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
26 | 0200/1 | Georgia · Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
27 | 0250/1 | Israel · IMRI - I Feel Alive
28 | 0250/1 | Switzerland · Timebelle - Apollo
29 | 0300/1 | Germany · Levina - Perfect Life
30 | 0300/1 | Moldova · Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma

31 | 0300/1 | Spain · Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover
32 | 0300/1 | Austria · Nathan Trent - Running On Air
33 | 0300/1 | Belarus · Naviband - Story Of My Life
34 | 0400/1 | Cyprus · Hovig - Gravity
35 | 0500/1 | Latvia · Triana Park - Line
36 | 0500/1 | Montenegro · Slavko Kalezić - Space
37 | 0500/1 | Malta · Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
38 | 0700/1 | Albania · Lindita - World
39 | 0750/1 | Czech Republic · Martina Bárta - My Turn
40 | 0750/1 | Lithuania · Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution

41 | 0750/1 | Slovenia · Omar Naber - On My Way
42 | 1000/1 | San Marino · Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night
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Liаm
post Apr 26 2017, 03:51 PM
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1000/1 !!!!!
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LexC
post Apr 26 2017, 03:55 PM
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I'm feeling like I'll want to get some each ways on in the next few days before rehearsals start the odds fluctuating. Netherlands seems like a bargain at 100/1, I must say!
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gooddelta
post Apr 26 2017, 04:02 PM
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Some very attractive bets in there, I'm tempted to place a couple of quid each way on The Netherlands, Finland, Estonia and Norway for a start.
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Liаm
post Apr 26 2017, 04:04 PM
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I got my each way on Netherlands yesterday, I had the same idea of getting in before rehearsals. Thinking of a couple of quid on some others but I'm not sure I really have *that* feeling about anything that's got good enough odds to bother with...
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gooddelta
post Apr 29 2017, 08:34 PM
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My bets for this year, have got them in prior to the rehearsals starting:

£1 each way on Norway at 100/1 (I'm sure this stands no chance, but it has a slim - very slim - chance of pulling an Everybody and appealing to those watching in a party mood, plus it's the most chart leaning/Spotify hit sounding song in the competition this year to my ears)

£1 each way on Netherlands at 50/1 (I adore this song and I'm sure they'll deliver a great performance. If viewers are in a retro mood it could scrape into the top four somehow, I'm sure the juries will back it to some extent)

£1 each way on Finland at 50/1 (something tells me the stark yet fragile nature of this song will stand out enormously and is being underrated, the odds might drop a lot when the rehearsals begin...it's not a winner but again, if everything worked in its favour I guess it could challenge for a top five)

£1 on Portugal (again, this could really flop, or it could smash the competition if the juries all give it full backing and it comes in the top five of the televote, which is possible)

£1 on Sweden (I can't work out if I think this will smash or not, but what it could do is what it did in Melfest and just appeal to everyone in an 8 points sort of way, which could be enough to sneak victory without winning on either metric)

£1 on Bulgaria (Italy's closest challenger I guess and represents the other side of the sort of thing that Spotify/chart listeners seem to love these days). Worth £1 just in case, I could certainly see it coming top three on both metrics.

£1 on Italy (hardly seems worth it at the odds, but deep down I still believe this will win and I always back the song I think will win no matter what)
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