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> Eurovision Song Contest 2018 · Predictions
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Ryan.
post Mar 12 2018, 10:14 PM
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As isn't tradition, I bring you the predictions thread with this paragraph copied from last year with the required edits. I can't wait any longer just for Georgia to serve up something that is coming last anyway.

• Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think the UK will come last’ to full predictions of everyone’s positions with points and justifications essays.
• You will make some predictions that turn out to be wrong, that's the name of the game. The challenge will be to see if you can end up with comparatively less egg on your face than everyone else, just make sure you've thought through your bold assertions before you make them.
• New information comes to light all the time between now and the live show so you can revise your predictions as often as you like (within reason though, obviously).
• If you're Ryan and you say something completely correct despite Lex saying such a prediction is laughable like "Salvador will win the semi 1 televote" as early as April 4th 2017 then prepare to brag about this forevermore.

BuzzJack, start predicting NOW!
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Ryan.
post Mar 12 2018, 10:52 PM
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These are VERY provisional as I'm aware I have an impossible 7:3 half split in semi 1 but I'm too tired now so will revisit these tomorrow and make a final version of this initial prediction.

Semi Final 1
Overall - Televote - Jury Vote

01 01 05 Estonia // Elina Nechayeva - La Forza
02 06 01 Bulgaria // Equinox - Bones
03 03 04 Czech Republic // Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me
04 02 06 Israel // Netta - Toy
05 04 11 Cyprus // Eleni Foureira - Fuego
06 05 10 Armenia // Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
07 14 02 Belgium // Sennek - A Matter Of Time
08 09 07 Lithuania // Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old
09 07 12 Finland // Saara Aalto - Monsters
10 11 08 Albania // Eugent Bushpepa - Mall
11 10 09 Azerbaijan // Aisel - X My Heart
12 17 03 Austria // Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You
13 08 15 Greece // Yianna Terzi - Oneiro Mou
14 12 14 Belarus // Alekseev - Forever
15 16 13 Switzerland // Zibbz - Stones
16 15 16 Ireland // Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together
17 13 19 Croatia // Franka - Crazy
18 18 17 F.Y.R. Macedonia // Eye Cue - Lost And Found
19 19 18 Iceland // Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice


Semi Final 2
Overall - Televote - Jury Vote

01 02 01 Sweden // Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off
02 03 02 Australia // Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love
03 01 05 Ukraine // Mélovin - Under The Ladder
04 06 03 The Netherlands // Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em
05 04 07 Norway // Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song
06 05 08 Poland // Gromee ft. Lukas Meijer - Light Me Up
07 12 04 Malta // Christabelle - Taboo
08 07 10 Moldova // DoReDos - My Lucky Day
09 13 06 Latvia // Laura Rizzotto - Funny Girl
10 08 13 Russia // Julia Samoylova - I Won't Break
11 11 09 Denmark // Rasmussen - Higher Ground
12 09 12 Serbia // Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - Nova deca
13 10 11 Montenegro // Vanja Radovanović - Inje
14 14 14 Romania // The Humans - Goodbye
15 16 15 San Marino // Jessika ft. Jenifer Brening - Who We Are
16 15 17 Georgia // Iriao - Sheni gulistvis
17 18 16 Slovenia // Lea Sirk - Hvala, ne!
18 17 18 Hungary // AWS - Viszlát nyár
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Ryan.
post Mar 12 2018, 10:54 PM
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Surely semi-final one is the highest quality semi-final ever, it's impossible to rank them.
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LexC
post Mar 12 2018, 11:22 PM
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LMAO that paragrah really doesn't read well in hindsight at all, EEP! (another important lesson though, own any and all of your bad takes!)

A few random/general thoughts I've been having about predictions at this point.

- Semi One has somehow got a HUGE bloc of SE Europe + Balkans (Greece, Cyprus, Albania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Croatia and Armenia plus the diasporas in Austria & Switzerland) whilst there's precious little in the way of ex-Soviets which means that Belarus, Azerbaijan and Lithuania are all in very big trouble as their usual 'cushion' of friendily points isn't as big as it usually is. The flipside of that is that just by turning up Albania have probably got around about 50 televote points already.

- You'd expect the flip side of that to mean that Russia are swimming in allies in Semi 2 but...they wierdly aren't. They've got Georgia, Moldova, Latvia (televote only since their jury is one of the noted "zero because it's russia" baltic states) and...Ukraine (HA!) and that's pretty much it. Given that it's probably not a jury magnet either, then they're also probably the most at risk of losing their 100% record as well.

- That said I think the country most likely to lose their 100% qualification record this year is Romania, largely due to being garbage (If they don't qualify and Moldova does though, it'll be interesting to see if that diaspora vote moves over to Moldova in a big way though)

- The ex-Yugo countries have really dropped the ball competitively this year and I don't think it's impossible than none of them will qualify once again. Should that happen, countries like Bulgaria and Albania may well reap the benefit of the ex-Yugo televotes that have to find a new home to go to in the final

- Love him as I may, I disagree with my learned friend Ryan with the way he does his predictions at this stage because I think it's not so much about where you come position wise on each side as much as how may points you can get. As long as you can get around about 100 points then you'll probably be in the mix to qualify from the semis (and for what it's worth, in the final you're probably looking for something that can get about 500+ points combined to be in contention) and it's perfectly possible you can do an Anja Nissen and get pulled up into the top 10 despite coming 3rd last with the televote.

That's kinda why I think Cyprus is a more safe qualifier than people are giving it credit for as whilst I think it's maybe only got 30 or so jury votes maximum, given the friendly company and it being the lone pop banger in the second half, I think it can easily get 80-100 televotes which is plenty enough to qualify.

- Gun to my head, if I had to pick a winner that nobody's seen coming yet....Ukraine!
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Conderella
post Mar 12 2018, 11:35 PM
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russia and ukraine are still kind of allies in the televoting (Russia's televote 10 went to Jamala after all) but juries will obviously have to put the opposite side in the bottom 5 otherwise... off with their head

with bulgaria's song out this means all of my current Top 5 is in Semi 1 oops
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cantthinkofaname
post Mar 13 2018, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(ionderella @ Mar 12 2018, 11:35 PM) *
russia and ukraine are still kind of allies in the televoting (Russia's televote 10 went to Jamala after all) but juries will obviously have to put the opposite side in the bottom 5 otherwise... off with their head

with bulgaria's song out this means all of my current Top 5 is in Semi 1 oops

For me it's my top 7 laugh.gif
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Hans
post Mar 13 2018, 11:12 AM
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I was saying "boo-urns"
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Have I read that right: you're predicting Albania through... in the semi of death?
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Cameron
post Mar 13 2018, 11:19 AM
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Ryan’s Eurovision taste is questionable this year so I’d ignore it 🙈
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cantthinkofaname
post Mar 13 2018, 11:42 AM
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Yeah I think Lithuania and Albania's chances are slim at best. Greece, Austria and Azerbaijan I'd say have a far better chance of qualifying.
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Sc▲ry J
post Mar 13 2018, 11:55 AM
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I would be GUTTED if this was the song to end Azerbaijan's 100% streak, it's one of my favourites of the year!
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cantthinkofaname
post Mar 13 2018, 02:18 PM
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ETA: the percentages given below reflect how likely I think the countries of semi 1 are to qualify.

Very Likely
100% Czech Republic
100% Estonia
90% Bulgaria
90% Israel
80% Belgium
80% Greece

Somewhat Likely
70% Cyprus
70% Finland
60% Armenia

Borderline
50% Austria
50% Azerbaijan
50% Croatia

Somewhat Unlikely
40% FYR Macedonia
40% Belarus
30% Switzerland

Very Unlikely
20% Lithuania
20% Ireland
10% Albania
0% Iceland


This post has been edited by jafetsigfinns: Mar 13 2018, 02:48 PM
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sm1ffj
post Mar 13 2018, 02:41 PM
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With all this Brexit business at the mo will the UK repeat it's 2003 achievement and get "nil" points...
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LexC
post Mar 13 2018, 02:42 PM
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Honestly, I don't really think you can call anything in Semi One a 100% certain qualifier. The closest to 100% certain would probably be Armenia but in the way where it's virtually guarunteed to come between 6th and 9th in the semi rather than be in the semi's top 3.
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LexC
post Mar 13 2018, 02:43 PM
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QUOTE(sm1ffj @ Mar 13 2018, 02:41 PM) *
With all this Brexit business at the mo will the UK repeat it's 2003 achievement and get "nil" points...


DRINK!
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cantthinkofaname
post Mar 13 2018, 02:47 PM
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QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 13 2018, 02:42 PM) *
Honestly, I don't really think you can call anything in Semi One a 100% certain qualifier. The closest to 100% certain would probably be Armenia but in the way where it's virtually guarunteed to come between 6th and 9th in the semi rather than be in the semi's top 3.

100% as in I'm 100% sure they'll qualify smile.gif these are my predictions after all so I can call them what I want lol.


This post has been edited by jafetsigfinns: Mar 13 2018, 02:47 PM
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Liаm
post Mar 13 2018, 02:59 PM
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Not gonna go as detailed as Ryan but I'd say something like:

Semi 1
01 Estonia
02 Israel
03 Bulgaria
04 Czech Republic
05 Cyprus
06 Finland
07 Belgium
08 Armenia
09 Azerbaijan
10 Albania
11 Austria
12 Belarus
13 Greece
14 Macedonia (I WISH this was semi 2 sad.gif)
15 Ireland
16 Croatia
17 Lithuania
18 Switzerland
19 Iceland (surely this will appeal to a grand total of nobody)

Semi 2
01 Sweden
02 Netherlands
03 Australia
04 Poland (I could easily see this being the modern chart ready song that does really well like Hey Mamma, on a lesser scale ofc)
05 Norway (probably higher but I'm being hopeful)
06 Ukraine
07 Russia
08 Malta
09 Denmark
10 Moldova
11 Montenegro
12 Latvia
13 Serbia
14 Georgia
15 Hungary
16 Slovenia (this SHOULD be top 5 at least in this poor semi but it screams bottom few in the semi)
17 Romania
18San Marino

For the big 5 and Portugal:
Italy will probably do about as well as Francesca Michielin, the message is powerful so if they can get it across with the staging as ofc many people won't understand Italian, perhaps a few places higher.
Spain is probably my pick for a winner outside the obvious top few, especially if they have the same chemistry on stage come May and they kiss at the end or something.
United Kingdom won't get above 10 points, and will probably finish last as such.
France could be anywhere, like Italy it will depend on the staging being enough to complement the message. I'd say maybe around 15th.
Germany is most probably a solid low top 10.
Portugal I could see doing anything, from a solid top 10 to bottom few laugh.gif It's certainly their most modern offering so hopefully it works in their favour.


QUOTE(LexC @ Mar 13 2018, 02:42 PM) *
Honestly, I don't really think you can call anything in Semi One a 100% certain qualifier. The closest to 100% certain would probably be Armenia but in the way where it's virtually guarunteed to come between 6th and 9th in the semi rather than be in the semi's top 3.

With it being SUCH a bloodbath I could easily see something shocking happening, I wouldn't like to say who'd be the victim of a shock DNQ but I'd hope it's Bulgaria if one happens laugh.gif I could see Saara or Eleni perhaps ending up as low as 9th r 10th but I really doubt either would DNQ... It's gonna come down to the staging and running order perhaps more than ever!
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LexC
post Mar 13 2018, 03:08 PM
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I could kinda see Belgium being the song that slips through the cracks in 11th/12th despite the fans loving it like Blackbird in 2017.
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Cameron
post Mar 13 2018, 03:24 PM
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Belgium could very easily do a Serbia 2017. Can we make a petition for Macedonia to be moved into semi 2 pls
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AdamAloud
post Mar 13 2018, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(sm1ffj @ Mar 13 2018, 02:41 PM) *
With all this Brexit business at the mo will the UK repeat it's 2003 achievement and get "nil" points...

Considering we got our best result in 6 years in the contest directly after the EU referendum, "all this Brexit business" will make no difference.
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AdamAloud
post Mar 13 2018, 03:44 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan. @ Mar 12 2018, 10:14 PM) *
• If you're Ryan and you say something completely correct despite Lex saying such a prediction is laughable like "Salvador will win the semi 1 televote" as early as April 4th 2017 then prepare to brag about this forevermore

This drag though!!
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