September 30, 200915 yr this is based on two previous Velvet top 5's so far and the fact the song is no worse than either of those :kink: not 17th Tom, it's odds to win not odds of finishing position :P Dollface just screams BJSC winner, it ticks all of the boxes...I wouldn't say it's an absolute certainty to win but I can see that it would appeal to nearly all of the participants here also, do bear in mind Rontvia's self inflation of own chances that are due to RontBet not wanting to lose too much money after the disaster of XIV that caused Rontvia Hill and RontviaBetSupreme to both go bankrupt when eager supporters put millions of pounds on the unfancied Uh Huh Her who went on to win! and I'm surprised you didn't like Miss Jamaica in the first place Pavel, it is essentially a more subtle take on Rihanna's Disturbia
September 30, 200915 yr Fix Me in VIII (5th) and Take My Body Close in XIV (3rd) Ah, VIII, I came here the contest after :P
September 30, 200915 yr not 17th Tom, it's odds to win not odds of finishing position :P Dollface just screams BJSC winner, it ticks all of the boxes...I wouldn't say it's an absolute certainty to win but I can see that it would appeal to nearly all of the participants here Sorry I forgot about that :lol:
September 30, 200915 yr Sorry I forgot about that :lol: it's certainly not going to finish last in the final but I worry for its chances when the amazing Nena/Kim Wilde duet finished well outside the top ten :( maybe it was the German parts of the song that put people off
October 1, 200915 yr Sangria: Samsaya - ADHD (Love Me Not) 25/1 :cheer: better then those 40-50/1s I got in the previous contests :D
October 2, 200915 yr Ok so I've heard semi 2 once and semi 1 twice (though I've voted) so don't take these too seriously: 2/1 Kopecka: Dollface - Miss Jamaica 3/1 Hendinia: Linda Teodosiu - Reprogram My Heart 5/1 Angelicland: Flamboyant Bella - Get A Reaction 6/1 Tinnmark: Velvet - Come Into The Night 8/1 Lorikeet: The Dolly Rockers - Boys Will Be Boys 10/1 Torchwood: Le Kid - Telephone 12/1 Mdice: Dragonette - Pick Up the Phone 12/1 Utopia: Sally Shapiro - My Fantasy 14/1 United States Of Jack: 3OH!3; Katy Perry - Starstrukk 14/1 Ashton: Sugababes - Whatever Makes You Happy 16/1 Xanaga: Livvi Franc - Automatik 18/1 Numayania: Fibes, Oh Fibes!; Kim Wilde - Run To You 18/1 Nonsuch: Lily Allen - Don't Get Me Wrong 20/1 Ben's Sanctuary: Madonna - It's So Cool 20/1 Kingdom of Shadow: Get Far; H-Boogie - The Radio 22/1 Lievant: Chew Lips - Salt Air 24/1 Elëdan: Tiësto; Kele Okereke - It's Not The Things You Say 24/1 FSR Rontvia: Fabio Lendrum - Don't Wait For Me 25/1 Hitanya: Ne-Yo - Lincoln Continental 25/1 Espen: The Dresden Dolls - Shores Of California 28/1 Sangria: Samsaya - ADHD (Love Me Not) 30/1 Bhangra: Jade Ewen - I Had Him First [Acoustic] 33/1 Triodopolis: Saving Jane - SexyParty (Demo) 33/1 B.a.N.G.: Siobhan Donaghy - Don't Give It Up 33/1 Quotosibb: Beverley Knight; Chaka Khan - Soul Survivor 36/1 Britmasu: Kate Miller-Heidke - The Last Day on Earth 38/1 Palmyra: Eva & The Heartmaker - Superhero 38/1 Kylienips: The Pains of Being Pure At Heart - Higher Than The Stars 40/1 Egabbac: The Temper Trap - Fader 40/1 Brokeback Mountain: Remi Nicole - Go Mr Sunshine 44/1 Peoples Republic of Jester: Air - Sing Sang Sung 45/1 Cadbury: Lykke Li - Tonight 45/1 Greenfroze: Carmen and Camille - Shine 4U 45/1 FNT Nickodonia: Emmy The Great - We Almost Had A Baby 48/1 Zechonia: Stefanie Heinzmann - Like A Bullet 50/1 Botanikka: Sarah Connor - You Are My Desire 50/1 Fervorosia: Prima J - Rockstar 50/1 Lotopialand: Queensberry - Too Young 50/1 Dalisska: Radio Ink - Wish U Were Here 52/1 Simondly: Deanne Berry - Turn It Up 55/1 Herzebania: Industry - My Baby's Waiting 66/1 Land Of Jack: The Sounds - No One Sleeps When I’m Awake 66/1 Kathaldazia: HEARTSREVOLUTION - Switchblade 70/1 New Rivermaya: Jeffree Star - Prisoner 70/1 Skall: The New Pornographers - Adventures In Solitude 70/1 Camdonia: You Love Her Coz She's Dead - Superheroes 75/1 Liechenstaan: Tori Kelly - Hurry Up 75/1 Ojnoj: Noah & The Whale - The First Days of Spring 80/1 Stevinia: Muse - Undisclosed Desires 100/1 Deandria: Elegeion - Scars 100/1 Xyland: Laura Pausini - Tra Te E Il Mare 100/1 UnoShake: One Republic - All The Right Moves 200/1 Scherzland: Pitbull; Nicole Scherzinger - Hotel Room Service (Remix) I know I've predicted myself not to qualify and put myself in the top 29 but I think if I do somehow make it, I have more chance of winning than most of what's below it. (that gives everyone below me on this permission to act smug when they make the final over me) With the exception of some obscure/unpopular entries, most of the ones towards the bottom are songs I've forgotten so don't take it too harshly?
October 3, 200915 yr Very interesting :kink: How taunting. :( Not sure if that means I'm close or miles off, that's probably the idea. :lol: I can't think of any major candidates that I've overlooked, though I guess they could be doing worse than predicted.
October 3, 200915 yr How taunting. :( Not sure if that means I'm close or miles off, that's probably the idea. :lol: I can't think of any major candidates that I've overlooked, though I guess they could be doing worse than predicted. I can see at least one there that you're way underestimating, and probably one overestimating too.... Is it too early for clues? :kink:
October 3, 200915 yr All the pop entries at the top, the uninspired in the top-middle and the indie/rock/risky at the bottom. AS PER USUAL. And we all know it never turns out that way, watching people getting their hopes up on ODDS that come out exactly in the same style every contest is a bit LOL. When entering something you should already know what your own odds are already, surely if you send something uninspired or poppy you know your going to stand a good chance as apposed to risking it with indie rock and inspired but overlooked artists. GOSH, which is why I boast that I'm going to win every contest, as a joke to shock everyone because HEARTSREVOLUTION or Flash Republic aren't your typical pop dance entry or music world/bjsc world accomplished artist guaranteed top 10 ETC ETC.
October 3, 200915 yr I can see at least one there that you're way underestimating, and probably one overestimating too.... Is it too early for clues? :kink: I think I might be underestimating Pitbull, it's certainly one to split people. His songs are catchy, but then you listen to the lyrics and find yourself disgusted. (at least for me :lol:) Based on the other odds I'd say I could be overestimating Linda, Sally or Livvi. I just had a feeling when I first heard Linda's song that it could be the winner. (then I heard "Ms Jamaica") I think it'll at least have a similar result to Anna Abreu, going from flop to big hit. All the pop entries at the top, the uninspired in the top-middle and the indie/rock/risky at the bottom. AS PER USUAL. And we all know it never turns out that way, watching people getting their hopes up on ODDS that come out exactly in the same style every contest is a bit LOL. When entering something you should already know what your own odds are already, surely if you send something uninspired or poppy you know your going to stand a good chance as apposed to risking it with indie rock and inspired but overlooked artists. GOSH, which is why I boast that I'm going to win every contest, as a joke to shock everyone because HEARTSREVOLUTION or Flash Republic aren't your typical pop dance entry or music world/bjsc world accomplished artist guaranteed top 10 ETC ETC. Yeah, okay. The reason odds are like it is because it's meant to represent who will WIN. As far as I know we've never had an indie rock winner in the main contest and I doubt we'll be getting one soon. I'm not saying your entry wont qualify or finish top 10. In fact it'd be stupid if you didn't expect one or more of Tiesto/HEARTSREVOLUTION/YLHCSD to make it in a semi with indie friendly voters Camdonia, Cadbury, Mdice, Utopia, BaNG and yourself in it.
October 3, 200915 yr All the pop entries at the top, the uninspired in the top-middle and the indie/rock/risky at the bottom. AS PER USUAL. And we all know it never turns out that way, watching people getting their hopes up on ODDS that come out exactly in the same style every contest is a bit LOL. When entering something you should already know what your own odds are already, surely if you send something uninspired or poppy you know your going to stand a good chance as apposed to risking it with indie rock and inspired but overlooked artists. GOSH, which is why I boast that I'm going to win every contest, as a joke to shock everyone because HEARTSREVOLUTION or Flash Republic aren't your typical pop dance entry or music world/bjsc world accomplished artist guaranteed top 10 ETC ETC. I don't think it's because it's indie they are near the bottom. It might be that they ain't that good.. That said- There are quite a few Indie BJSC fans so I fully expect some to qualify.
October 3, 200915 yr I think I might be underestimating Pitbull, it's certainly one to split people. His songs are catchy, but then you listen to the lyrics and find yourself disgusted. (at least for me :lol:) Based on the other odds I'd say I could be overestimating Linda, Sally or Livvi. I just had a feeling when I first heard Linda's song that it could be the winner. (then I heard "Ms Jamaica") I think it'll at least have a similar result to Anna Abreu, going from flop to big hit. Yeah, okay. The reason odds are like it is because it's meant to represent who will WIN. As far as I know we've never had an indie rock winner in the main contest and I doubt we'll be getting one soon. I'm not saying your entry wont qualify or finish top 10. In fact it'd be stupid if you didn't expect one or more of Tiesto/HEARTSREVOLUTION/YLHCSD to make it in a semi with indie friendly voters Camdonia, Cadbury, Mdice, Utopia, BaNG and yourself in it. LOL oh my word I was just about to come in here and edit my post to a 'NEVERMIND' and then you quoted it. GAH. :hithead: I know their odds to win but the odds and qualifiers prediction threads look almost identical anyway, well from how I see it, so I meant to refer it in that way. And La Roux, Röyksopp, VV Brown are very much considered Indie BTW, even if they are more pop they're definitely leaps and bounds more Indie than the other winners. ;o And not only one or two Indie or Rock entries make it through every semi, that's what I meant by the underestimation. I'd say the typical BJSC Final is 3/4 pop and 1/4 indie with the exact same fractions in the semi finals. So rather than basing odds on language barriers, genres etc I'd rather do odds based on the pure quality of the song and how inspired it is. I don't think we've had an uninspired winner in the last BJSC era, so predicting entries with artists that have been entered for the 3rd/4th time or entries with artists that are currently running the charts globally to come so close to winning is a tad way-off, even if theyre obviously going to qualify, which is why I the odds are always so way-off and why so little are bothered in actually posting them. .
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