My guess is that Olly is 7.5k ahead of Katy overall.

My guess is that Olly is 7.5k ahead of Katy overall.

How did you get to that conclustion BritneyS?

What I think I’m saying (although I’m starting to get a bit confused by it all now too) is that:-

 

At the moment, Katy’s lead over Olly equates to the size of the bar @ #16.

 

If a #16 sells approx 17.6k, then if Katy was ahead of Olly by the current amount all week, she would sell 17.6k more than him.

 

However, we’re part-way through the week and Olly is currently in the lead (by how much, we don’t know!).

 

BUT we can work out to a reasonable degree of estimation the following:-

 

(a) Based on current bars, Katy is selling 17.6k more than Olly per week. We’re now on Wednesday so sales from Sunday Monday and Tuesday need to be excluded from this amount (on a linear basis, this would remove (3/7) or 7.5k of sales from this total so leaving Katy selling 10k more than Olly for the remainder of the week);

(B) Olly’s physical sales need to be taken into account (no idea what these are, could be 10k for week so say 5.7k for Wednesday->Sunday?);

© The difference in sales on other download sites need to be taken into account (assume equal so no adjustment).

 

And we’d then have an idea of how much Katy will gain on Olly from now->Sunday.

 

So based on the above, Katy is selling 10k more downloads than Olly, but Olly may sell 5.7k for rest of week, meaning Katy only gains 4.3k which probably won’t be enough to overtake Olly by Sunday.

 

That’s why I think Katy’s lead has to be much bigger (maybe the size of the #7/#8 pop bar on iTunes, or at least 25% more than Olly, perhaps as high as 35%/40%) for the remainder of the week for her to stand a chance.

 

A lot of guesswork – if we had Olly’s current lead and his physical sales for the week to date, we’d be able to work out fairly accurately how far ahead Katy needs to be to overtake by Sunday.

 

 

GENIUS :D

 

I love your posts :lol:

Sunday is exciting :w00t: Katy vs Olly, Katy FTW :wub:

 

Oh the Saturdays are collaborating with Flo Rida on Higher? :( I'll have to wait and hear what its like before I judge it :kink: I love the original though :D

What I think I’m saying (although I’m starting to get a bit confused by it all now too) is that:-

 

At the moment, Katy’s lead over Olly equates to the size of the bar @ #16.

 

If a #16 sells approx 17.6k, then if Katy was ahead of Olly by the current amount all week, she would sell 17.6k more than him.

 

However, we’re part-way through the week and Olly is currently in the lead (by how much, we don’t know!).

 

BUT we can work out to a reasonable degree of estimation the following:-

 

(a) Based on current bars, Katy is selling 17.6k more than Olly per week. We’re now on Wednesday so sales from Sunday Monday and Tuesday need to be excluded from this amount (on a linear basis, this would remove (3/7) or 7.5k of sales from this total so leaving Katy selling 10k more than Olly for the remainder of the week);

(B) Olly’s physical sales need to be taken into account (no idea what these are, could be 10k for week so say 5.7k for Wednesday->Sunday?);

© The difference in sales on other download sites need to be taken into account (assume equal so no adjustment).

 

And we’d then have an idea of how much Katy will gain on Olly from now->Sunday.

 

So based on the above, Katy is selling 10k more downloads than Olly, but Olly may sell 5.7k for rest of week, meaning Katy only gains 4.3k which probably won’t be enough to overtake Olly by Sunday.

 

That’s why I think Katy’s lead has to be much bigger (maybe the size of the #7/#8 pop bar on iTunes, or at least 25% more than Olly, perhaps as high as 35%/40%) for the remainder of the week for her to stand a chance.

 

A lot of guesswork – if we had Olly’s current lead and his physical sales for the week to date, we’d be able to work out fairly accurately how far ahead Katy needs to be to overtake by Sunday.

 

I actually understood what you're talking about! :o

 

Are you like some type of genius or something? :P

 

So Katy most probably won't be number one on Sunday considering the points you've made and the fact that Olly debuted extremely high with a lot of pre-orders which equate to instant sales. Katy was a slow burner.

My guess is that Olly is 7.5k ahead of Katy overall.

 

I think its much more than that- he had 46k yesterday in the mids, Katy surely wouldnt have reduced it so much that shes just 7k behind

Edited September 1, 201014 yr by chart wizard

I actually understood what you're talking about! :o

 

Are you like some type of genius or something? :P

 

So Katy most probably won't be number one on Sunday considering the points you've made and the fact that Olly debuted extremely high with a lot of pre-orders which equate to instant sales. Katy was a slow burner.

 

Haha, you’re too kind :) When you have to explain complicated things to Councillors on a day-to-day basis, you learn how to dumb things down (not that I'm suggesting you're dumb of course, you get the gist ;))

 

The only way I think Katy will be #1 on Sunday is if BOTH:-

 

1. Her version @ #2 overtakes Olly by midnight and builds a substantial lead (this version needs to be around 15% ahead on average for the rest of the week – the average calculated using the lead as of tonight, Thursday night, Friday night and Saturday night);

 

2. Her version @ #11 enters the iTunes top 10 and remains there for the rest of the week, therefore continuing to keep pace with the first version on a percentage-to-percentage basis, and which would add a further 20-25% onto her lead over Olly, taking the 15% above to a net 35-40% lead).

 

Note that currently, the version @ #2 is contributing 80% of TD iTunes sales, the version @ #11 is contributing 18% of TD iTunes sales, and the version @ #1xx 2% of TD iTunes sales.

Haha, you’re too kind :) When you have to explain complicated things to Councillors on a day-to-day basis, you learn how to dumb things down (not that I'm suggesting you're dumb of course, you get the gist ;))

 

The only way I think Katy will be #1 on Sunday is if BOTH:-

 

1. Her version @ #2 overtakes Olly by midnight and builds a substantial lead (this version needs to be around 15% ahead on average for the rest of the week – the average calculated using the lead as of tonight, Thursday night, Friday night and Saturday night);

 

2. Her version @ #11 enters the iTunes top 10 and remains there for the rest of the week, therefore continuing to keep pace with the first version on a percentage-to-percentage basis, and which would add a further 20-25% onto her lead over Olly, taking the 15% above to a net 35-40% lead).

 

Note that currently, the version @ #2 is contributing 80% of TD iTunes sales, the version @ #11 is contributing 18% of TD iTunes sales, and the version @ #1xx 2% of TD iTunes sales.

 

Don't worry, I know what you mean. :D

 

Well I think Katy will get to number one before the day is out although it seems like she hasn't gained much in the last 24 hours. Her second version should be in the top 10 now. Trust both versions to slow down when they are so close to significant positions (#1 and #10).

 

EDIT: Looking at the pop bars, Katy is to #10 now.

Edited September 1, 201014 yr by SceneofSIXCrimes

Yep, the #1 and the #10 positions are critical - if I had to say one was more critical than the other I'd go with the #1 position due to the additional advertising on the front page, since although the #10 position also carries that advantage, the #1 position carries the cover art which provides more "attention grabbing", and it also means Murs loses the cover art advantage of the #1 spot.

 

And Yay @ the 2nd version now top 10, it should stay in the top 10 for the rest of the week and hopefully actually manage around #7/#8 for the rest of the week. Just need the 1st version to hit the top spot now and the RACE is ON!!!

Wow at TD second version going top 10 :o

 

Although that pretty much stops any chance of a tenth week top 10 for YBC :( It will still get a ninth though

Edited September 1, 201014 yr by Bray

katy perry teenage dream is still A listed in radio 1 playlist i thought olly would be too but he isnt hes C listed even no its number 1 in mid weeks :\

That's ironic because Flo Rida has beaten the Saturdays to No.1 twice :kink:

It looks like Kary will be no.1 next week aswell. There's not much else being released.

katy perry teenage dream is still A listed in radio 1 playlist i thought olly would be too but he isnt hes C listed even no its number 1 in mid weeks :\

 

They added him today because he's #1 in the midweeks, although Radio 1 recently ignored The Wanted and didn't even add them despite the fact they got to #1, but it was okay because they got basically blanket coverage and support everywhere else (kind of like Olly has, until now).

no point he will drop from #1 next week if he gets it this week anyway haha

It looks like Kary will be no.1 next week aswell. There's not much else being released.

 

McFly, Alexandra, Alesha...?

 

Are these not major releases? I think McFly will do it

McFly, Alexandra, Alesha...?

 

Are these not major releases? I think McFly will do it

 

I think McFly stands a chance, Alexandra has like #3 written all over it I think. If McFly or Alexandra can't do it, then there's nobody else but Katy.

I think McFly stands a chance, Alexandra has like #3 written all over it I think. If McFly or Alexandra can't do it, then there's nobody else but Katy.

 

That was mainly addressing the 'no-one is releasing' point.

McFly, Alexandra, Alesha...?

 

Are these not major releases? I think McFly will do it

 

They are, but they aren't contenders for the top spot IMO.

em- Katys not top 10 on my feed, shes still 11

 

is that just me?