Are you still clinging to this utter myth even though a couple of us showed you a while back that the incumbent government DIDN'T get a boost at any of the last THREE elections? :lol:

 

The official economy is probably going to be growing strongly all the way til the next election, but again, that poll I showed you about people considering the cost of living more important than the official GDP stats should be worrying... and another poll I just saw has only 11% of people saying they feel like there's a "real" economic recovery going on in their own lives. Frankly, a lot of people are so distrustful of anything that's reported these days, I bet a lot of people think the government is just completely making up the stats showing the economy is growing (even though they'd be wrong), and even of those who do believe the stats are genuine, it's just too easy for Labour to say all the rewards of the recovery are going to the wealthiest.

 

Brown reversed a tory 20 point poll lead 20 months before the election into what turned out to be about a 7 point final margin, thats what i meant

 

Plus hague in 2001 while never going to win the election was certainly showing in the opinion polls a year before that he might cut the majority by a fair chunk, it never happened

 

Kinnock was ahead of Major in the polls virtually till polling day and lost

 

Foot was ahead of Maggie at one time but Maggie got a landslide

 

It is natural that only 11% feel it atm, the recovery is strong but pay rises were low this year, next year they will be higher, plus the real recovery has only begun about 4 or 5 months ago, takes time

I'd swap 2 and 3 and put them all above a Tory majority in order of likelihood. The likelihood of the Tories losing no seats to Labour and making more than 20 gains from the Lib Dems is low, and no matter how good things get I think it's really unlikely Ed will lose m/any seats to the Tories given we're working from a drastic low in a lot of the marginals we hold.

 

The only slight worrying signs in the polls right now is that, even in these polls with big UK-wide leads for Labour, the Scottish subsamples still put them some way behind the SNP, which obviously would result in a big loss of seats to them (then again, that also shows just how strong Labour's support is everywhere else that they have big leads in spite of that).

 

I have to admit I'm still complacently assuming that, when the general election comes around, I'm still expecting most SNP supporters to switch back to Labour just to keep the Tories out like what happened in 2010, even though I think the SNP will carry on winning Scottish Parliament elections for a while.

Brown reversed a tory 20 point poll lead 20 months before the election into what turned out to be about a 7 point final margin, thats what i meant

 

Plus hague in 2001 while never going to win the election was certainly showing in the opinion polls a year before that he might cut the majority by a fair chunk, it never happened

 

Kinnock was ahead of Major in the polls virtually till polling day and lost

 

Foot was ahead of Maggie at one time but Maggie got a landslide

 

It is natural that only 11% feel it atm, the recovery is strong but pay rises were low this year, next year they will be higher, plus the real recovery has only begun about 4 or 5 months ago, takes time

The opposition lead disappeared, but in every case the government's share of the vote still fell compared with the election before.

Brown reversed a tory 20 point poll lead 20 months before the election into what turned out to be about a 7 point final margin, thats what i meant

 

Plus hague in 2001 while never going to win the election was certainly showing in the opinion polls a year before that he might cut the majority by a fair chunk, it never happened

 

Kinnock was ahead of Major in the polls virtually till polling day and lost

 

Foot was ahead of Maggie at one time but Maggie got a landslide

 

It is natural that only 11% feel it atm, the recovery is strong but pay rises were low this year, next year they will be higher, plus the real recovery has only begun about 4 or 5 months ago, takes time

With a coalition government it's hard to look at previous parliaments for precedents. If I was Ed Miliband I would not be too happy with an eight point lead but I still think Labour will be the biggest party at the next election.

Brown reversed a tory 20 point poll lead 20 months before the election into what turned out to be about a 7 point final margin, thats what i meant

 

But the lead collapsed ONLY because loads of Tories went to the Lib Dems, NOT back to Labour. Labour's eventual score of 29% in the real election was barely a few % above their absolute nadir of 24%, and it was a little bit below their average poll rating for the whole 2005-10 period. And specifically, at the equivalent stage of the last election cycle compared to now (November 2008), Labour polled above 30% in EVERY poll that month, and ended up scoring below that. Full list of polls here

 

Plus hague in 2001 while never going to win the election was certainly showing in the opinion polls a year before that he might cut the majority by a fair chunk, it never happened

 

Not really true. There was one very brief period during the fuel protests in 2000 where Hague was close to (or occasionally even ahead of) Labour. Apart from that very brief blip, Labour was ahead of the Tories virtually the entire time by more than 10%, often even 20%, whereas they only beat them by 9% in the real thing. That one blip doesn't compare to Labour being ahead of the Tories for virtually the entire last 3 years now.

Edited November 14, 201311 yr by Danny

There is still everything to play for

 

18 months for an improving economy to start being felt across the country

 

18 months for more and more people to buy their first home

 

18 months for more and more jobs to be created

 

There is little or no chance of the economy having a downturn in the next 18 months, its just a question of how much it grows by

 

If labour only have a modest lead when the economy is only starting its climb then it does not bode well for them when the recovery is in full swing

There is still everything to play for

 

18 months for an improving economy to start being felt across the country

 

18 months for more and more people to buy their first home

 

18 months for more and more jobs to be created

 

There is little or no chance of the economy having a downturn in the next 18 months, its just a question of how much it grows by

 

If labour only have a modest lead when the economy is only starting its climb then it does not bode well for them when the recovery is in full swing

 

The recovery will not be in full swing in 18 months, things just will be improved on the absolute lows they have been.

 

As I keep on repeating, debt hasnt dropped at all, banks are still overlevereged and have an invested interest in talking up the housing market (they are currently kneeling at the feet of Cameron for the assist) so that they can get shot of the overpriced debts they are sitting on before the market drops again. Only low interest rates (which hit responsible savers and reward irresponsible debtors) are keeping the economy ticking over. such as it is. As the Bof E said this week 5 or 6% is the norm. I look forward to seeing how those saddled with debt and managing cos there is little to pay in interest currently will be doing in a few years time....

 

oh and the jobs are part-time and seasonal to a fair degree, or thanks to Dave's mini-boost. No guarantee any of them will be there in 5 years time. I don't see either party garnering much enthusiastic support and it will be a low turnout,

The recovery will not be in full swing in 18 months, things just will be improved on the absolute lows they have been.

 

As I keep on repeating, debt hasnt dropped at all, banks are still overlevereged and have an invested interest in talking up the housing market (they are currently kneeling at the feet of Cameron for the assist) so that they can get shot of the overpriced debts they are sitting on before the market drops again. Only low interest rates (which hit responsible savers and reward irresponsible debtors) are keeping the economy ticking over. such as it is. As the Bof E said this week 5 or 6% is the norm. I look forward to seeing how those saddled with debt and managing cos there is little to pay in interest currently will be doing in a few years time....

 

oh and the jobs are part-time and seasonal to a fair degree, or thanks to Dave's mini-boost. No guarantee any of them will be there in 5 years time. I don't see either party garnering much enthusiastic support and it will be a low turnout,

 

Depends where, in London and the South East and the south coast those parts of the country are booming, shops packed, car parks full, vacancies a plenty, life is good for people who live in those areas

 

What we need is the same thing to start happening in poor areas like Barnsley, Bolton, Liverpool, Sunderland, Derby etc as we already have the south east and southern vote.

Edited November 15, 201311 yr by Sandro Raniere

Depends where, in London and the South East and the south coast those parts of the country are booming, shops packed, car parks full, vacancies a plenty, life is good for people who live in those areas

 

What we need is the same thing to start happening in poor areas like Barnsley, Bolton, Liverpool, Sunderland, Derby etc as we already have the south east and southern vote.

 

But you had their vote even in 1997 :lol:

Another sign that people aren't registering the supposed economic recovery, from a Populus poll on what news stories people have been paying attention to:

 

01 Philippines

02 Energy price rises

03 Phone hacking trial

04 Bedroom tax

05 London cyclist deaths

06 Economic recovery

...

Edited November 15, 201311 yr by Danny

Depends where, in London and the South East and the south coast those parts of the country are booming, shops packed, car parks full, vacancies a plenty, life is good for people who live in those areas

 

What we need is the same thing to start happening in poor areas like Barnsley, Bolton, Liverpool, Sunderland, Derby etc as we already have the south east and southern vote.

If you seriously think the Tories have a chance of winning seats in Sunderland or Barnsley you are even more deluded than I thought. As for the inclusion of Liverpool, that is even more of a joke. The Tories have come a distant third in all but one Liverpool seat for the last few elections. They have consistently come fourth in the other Liverpool seat.

But you had their vote even in 1997 :lol:

 

We will do extremely well in the South, South East, Midlands, Shires, sea of blue :)

 

But to win a majority we will have to break into some labour territory, we will get nothing in Wales and Scotland

Another sign that people aren't registering the supposed economic recovery, from a Populus poll on what news stories people have been paying attention to:

 

01 Philippines

02 Energy price rises

03 Phone hacking trial

04 Bedroom tax

05 London cyclist deaths

06 Economic recovery

...

 

But only 2 and 6 will influence any votes at the next election

 

 

If you seriously think the Tories have a chance of winning seats in Sunderland or Barnsley you are even more deluded than I thought. As for the inclusion of Liverpool, that is even more of a joke. The Tories have come a distant third in all but one Liverpool seat for the last few elections. They have consistently come fourth in the other Liverpool seat.

 

They were just generic throwaway towns and cities first ones that came into my head

 

My point was that we will need to win some seats north of the midlands to form a government on our own for definite

We will do extremely well in the South, South East, Midlands, Shires, sea of blue :)

With the exception of the Midlands, those areas are already a sea of blue. Even in the Midlands the number of Tory prospects isn't that great.

But only 2 and 6 will influence any votes at the next election

By the time of the next election the Bedroom Tax will be affecting more people than now so is likely to remain an issue.

We will do extremely well in the South, South East, Midlands, Shires, sea of blue :)

 

But to win a majority we will have to break into some labour territory, we will get nothing in Wales and Scotland

 

Why do you think you'll do well in the Midlands? AFAIK, there's very little sign of a real economic recovery there. Plus, most Midlands local councils have had heavy cuts dumped onto them by the Coalition, whereas most southern councils got smaller cuts or some even increases (which is one of the reasons why the Tories are holding up so well in the south).

 

You're right though that the Midlands is where this election will be decided, like it is at ALL elections (despite the media always going on about how Labour "need to be doing better in the south" to be able to win a majority, which I assume they only think because they all come from the south themselves so assume it's more important). But I don't see any way the Tories are going to be able to stop a pretty heavy fall in votes in the Midlands in real numbers next time -- though whether Labour can (a) convince that huge number of Tory-haters there to even get out to the polling station, and (b ) that Labour will actually do anything different to the Tories, is another matter, admittedly.

They were just generic throwaway towns and cities first ones that came into my head

 

My point was that we will need to win some seats north of the midlands to form a government on our own for definite

Part of Thatcher's legacy is that the Tories' record in cities north of London since the mid 90s has been woeful. That is why it is so hard for them to win a majority.

By the time of the next election the Bedroom Tax will be affecting more people than now so is likely to remain an issue.

 

Those affected by the bedroom tax are traditional labour voters, people in social housing wont vote tory nor will most unemployed, students and public sector workers and most immigrants with the exception of chinese and indians who strongly support tories

 

 

Why do you think you'll do well in the Midlands? AFAIK, there's very little sign of a real economic recovery there. Plus, most Midlands local councils have had heavy cuts dumped onto them by the Coalition, whereas most southern councils got smaller cuts or some even increases (which is one of the reasons why the Tories are holding up so well in the south).

 

You're right though that the Midlands is where this election will be decided, like it is at ALL elections (despite the media always going on about how Labour "need to be doing better in the south" to be able to win a majority, which I assume they only think because they all come from the south themselves so assume it's more important). But I don't see any way the Tories are going to be able to stop a pretty heavy fall in votes in the Midlands in real numbers next time -- though whether Labour can (a) convince that huge number of Tory-haters there to even get out to the polling station, and (b ) that Labour will actually do anything different to the Tories, is another matter, admittedly.

 

Solihull was voted the best place to live in the UK a couple of days ago so some parts of the midlands, particularly those exposed to the booming car industry, are doing very well