And how many Romanians and Bulgarians do you think will want to come here?

 

Impossible to predict

 

Didn't previous governments predict like 50,000 Poles and others and it turned out to be a million or something?

Edited November 26, 201311 yr by Sandro Raniere

That's definitely a danger, which is why I hope the Labour leadership aren't so foolish as to start doing some cringeworthy "tough talk" on immigration next year. As I saw someone put it before: if you advertise a product (the "product" in this case being anti-immigration sentiment), you're only going draw attention to the market leader in that product. The Tories seem determined to blunder right into that trap with their Lynton Crosby strategy (note how Cameron's EU referendum pledge, far from "shooting UKIP's fox" as the Tory media commentators said it would, pushed UKIP higher in the polls as their flagship issue was pushed to the top of the news agenda).

 

Yes i agree on all counts with this post

People think there's too much immigration as it is. They aren't going to notice that many more foreigners coming in because it feels incredibly difficult to get jobs as it is. The very idea that that would be enough to change it from a current 85-15 split to a 50-50 one is absolutely ridiculous - do you really think that such a slow-motion change as immigration would lead to such a drastic change in the polls?

 

Depends how many come, if it is 20,000 it won't be a massive deal, if it is 200,000 or more then it will put massive extra strain on our schools, hospitals, doctors surgeries and roads not to mention social housing

 

Those start happening then more and more will get pissed off

200,000 in a country of 63 million really isn't that noticeable. Most of them won't have children of school age here, so that won't be a strain on our schools. Most of them won't be ill most of the time, as most normal people aren't, so it won't be an especially noticeable strain on our schools, and most economic migrants tend to be poorer and thus tend to use public transport where possible, so it won't be much of a noticeable strain on the roads either. And given the huge queues for social housing...yeah, no.

Impossible to predict

 

Didn't previous governments predict like 50,000 Poles and others and it turned out to be a million or something?

Well you seem to have had a go at predicting the number.

 

The previous government's prediction of the number of Poles was based on the wrong assumption that the other major EU economies would open their borders to people from the countries joining the EU in 2004. This time all EU members have to accept Romanians and Bulgarians from 1 January next year. Why do you think Romanians and Bulgarians will choose the UK above countries like Germany?

People think there's too much immigration as it is. They aren't going to notice that many more foreigners coming in because it feels incredibly difficult to get jobs as it is. The very idea that that would be enough to change it from a current 85-15 split to a 50-50 one is absolutely ridiculous - do you really think that such a slow-motion change as immigration would lead to such a drastic change in the polls?

 

Hmm, I'm not sure I agree with that. Even people who don't directly notice immigration in their communities are going to pick up on the news stories which are almost inevitable next year. And the problem is, because there are NO politicians brave enough to speak up for immigration (because they foolishly think that if they act "consensual" on the issue then they'll calm down public anger on the subject, even though all historical evidence on these types of issues shows the exact opposite) to point out the reality that immigration brings a net benefit to the economy, and it keeps the average age of the UK young and means it will be more stable in the long term, there's going to be NO-ONE who will challenge the bigoted, inaccurate viewpoint of immigration - and if people are ONLY hearing one thing from everyone in the media, it's natural that even decent, un-prejudiced people are going to believe it. So I do worry anti-immigration sentiment is going to go rampant next year, and that will only be to UKIP's benefit.

Edited November 26, 201311 yr by Danny

Where will the news stories come from though? It's almost inevitably going to be the Mail and Express screeching as they already are and already do about current immigration. It might shift things a little bit but anti-immigration rhetoric has been so unrelenting for the last ten or so years that I think it's going to be just preaching to the converted by now. I can't see any rises in anti-immigrant sentiments in the polls beyond maybe 5-10% to reflect that it'll be a high profile issue for the next few months.

Maybe so but the buy to let landlords in Germany must be bathing in €100 notes while at the same time the renting German population are just throwing money away with nothing to show for it

 

They should embrace our home ownership model not the other way round

You have literally no concept of stability.

200,000 in a country of 63 million really isn't that noticeable. Most of them won't have children of school age here, so that won't be a strain on our schools. Most of them won't be ill most of the time, as most normal people aren't, so it won't be an especially noticeable strain on our schools, and most economic migrants tend to be poorer and thus tend to use public transport where possible, so it won't be much of a noticeable strain on the roads either. And given the huge queues for social housing...yeah, no.

 

They will be coming here to work

 

Lets say 200,000 come here (a figure plucked out of thin air), if even half get a job then that will be 100,000 Brits who don't, and that will fuel resentment, wrongly so as i admire the Eastern european work ethic

Well you seem to have had a go at predicting the number.

 

The previous government's prediction of the number of Poles was based on the wrong assumption that the other major EU economies would open their borders to people from the countries joining the EU in 2004. This time all EU members have to accept Romanians and Bulgarians from 1 January next year. Why do you think Romanians and Bulgarians will choose the UK above countries like Germany?

 

We have the most generous benefits system, the best health service in Europe if not the world

 

You could say the same for non EU immigration too, why does someone get a plane from Somalia or Afghanistan or India to Heathrow instead of flying to Frankfurt or Zurich etc which are nearer them than Heathrow

 

You have literally no concept of stability.

 

When you are in a position to enter the property market which do you plan to do?

 

1) Rent a place for £1000 a month and make a buy to let landlord richer than he already is

 

2) Buy a property on a mortgage for a similar amount per month and have something to call your own

 

 

We have the most generous benefits system, the best health service in Europe if not the world

 

You could say the same for non EU immigration too, why does someone get a plane from Somalia or Afghanistan or India to Heathrow instead of flying to Frankfurt or Zurich etc which are nearer them than Heathrow

No we don't. A number of Scandinavian countries have a more generous system than ours.

 

As for your second question, you'd better ask them. You could also ask the people who did get a flight to Franfurt etc. why they made that choice. You seem to have this Daily Mail version of immigration whereby the UK is the only country in Europe with any immigrants.

When you are in a position to enter the property market which do you plan to do?

 

1) Rent a place for £1000 a month and make a buy to let landlord richer than he already is

 

2) Buy a property on a mortgage for a similar amount per month and have something to call your own

As ever, you haven't addressed the point made, namely that Germany has had a far more stable economy over the last few decades than the UK. One reason for that (although by no means the only reason) is that their economy is less vulnerable to massive changes in house prices.

As ever, you haven't addressed the point made, namely that Germany has had a far more stable economy over the last few decades than the UK. One reason for that (although by no means the only reason) is that their economy is less vulnerable to massive changes in house prices.

 

Germany's economy is built around manufacturing, there is always going to be demand for Audi's and BMW's etc

 

Our economy is based around the service sector (hairdressing, retail, restaurants etc) which is a lot more prone to being changeable

 

 

 

 

No we don't. A number of Scandinavian countries have a more generous system than ours.

 

As for your second question, you'd better ask them. You could also ask the people who did get a flight to Franfurt etc. why they made that choice. You seem to have this Daily Mail version of immigration whereby the UK is the only country in Europe with any immigrants.

 

I think immigration, within reason, is a good thing. I welcome anyone here who is prepared to work hard, knuckle down, adapt to our way of life, respect the laws of the land. I think any reasonable person does

 

But what we don't need is hate preachers, religious extremists, people who come here and don't respect our culture and our laws and those who have no desire to get a job, they need stopping from arriving in first place or booted out immediately they cause trouble.

 

My views are not remotely close to a Daily Mail reader

Edited November 26, 201311 yr by Sandro Raniere

Germany's economy is built around manufacturing, there is always going to be demand for Audi's and BMW's etc

 

Our economy is based around the service sector (hairdressing, retail, restaurants etc) which is a lot more prone to being changeable

Note the bit in parentheses where I said that house price volatility was by no means the only factor.

I think immigration, within reason, is a good thing. I welcome anyone here who is prepared to work hard, knuckle down, adapt to our way of life, respect the laws of the land. I think any reasonable person does

 

But what we don't need is hate preachers, religious extremists, people who come here and don't respect our culture and our laws and those who have no desire to get a job, they need stopping from arriving in first place or booted out immediately they cause trouble.

 

My views are not remotely close to a Daily Mail reader

And what about similar people who happen to have been born here? Do you want to boot them out too? Or are you somehow going to stop them arriving in the first place?

And what about similar people who happen to have been born here? Do you want to boot them out too? Or are you somehow going to stop them arriving in the first place?

 

Obviously that is difficult if they were born here but any immigrant coming to UK from EU or non EU should be security checked to find out whether they have any convictions in their own country or are known to have religious extremist views, and if they have then their entry into UK should be declined

 

I welcome immigrants but the right type of immigrant

Speaking of UKIP, interesting piece on Political Betting speculating that Farage has a good chance of winning South Thanet in Kent at the next election:

 

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php...actical-voting/

 

Labour held the seat from 1997 to 2010, when the Tories took it, but crucially the Tory MP has announced she's standing down after just one term so they'll probably have a heavy fall-off next time. Meanwhile, UKIP came first in this constituency in the council elections this year. If Labour and the Tories are close together, then Farage could potentially sneak through the middle and swipe the seat on only 30% or something.

I still think he'll ego trip and run in a big name seat, as he did in 2010 and lost embarrassingly.