Angus Reid leak:

CON 32% LAB 43% LD 11%

CON 220 LAB 382 LD 24 ... LAB MAJ 114

 

Good lord - Didn't expect 11% already...

 

So Labour have the same number of votes as the coalition in its entirity. Magnificent.

So Labour have the same number of votes as the coalition in its entirity. Magnificent.

Yes, soon, hopefully Labour will be ahead of the coalition... they would still hold a Majority if they had 43% with the coalition, but IMO by the next election, the Lib Dems will be truly in the grave - and a CON-UKIP coalition would be more likely, though it looks like Labour would easily steer away from that.

 

Any chance of an early election?

Yes, soon, hopefully Labour will be ahead of the coalition... they would still hold a Majority if they had 43% with the coalition, but IMO by the next election, the Lib Dems will be truly in the grave - and a CON-UKIP coalition would be more likely, though it looks like Labour would easily steer away from that.

 

Any chance of an early election?

 

Only if there's rebellion from the inside the coalition. This 55% 'supermajority' there needs to be to get a vote of no confidence will only be achieved if dozens of coalition MPs vote against the government.

Only if there's rebellion from the inside the coalition. This 55% 'supermajority' there needs to be to get a vote of no confidence will only be achieved if dozens of coalition MPs vote against the government.

A vote of no confidence still only requires a simple majority. The 55% applies if the government wishes to dissolve parliament.

That was in the plans, but has that actually been voted on and enforced yet? Ditto fixed term parliaments...

 

I don't see a CON-UKIP coalition occurring, for the simple fact that UKIP are unlikely to ever get a seat without someone defecting, and every parliamentary UKIP defection (well, the one) has come from the Tories, so it would be meaningless for them.

Labour are now averaging a lead of about 7 points in the polls. I really do think that's even more remarkable than the commentariat are picking up on, given how mediocre Ed Miliband's personal approval ratings are - it shows just how fundamentally strong Labour's base is now, thanks to the Lib Dem implosion and consequent re-alignment of the left. And any personal popularity Ed gains (and I do think that people will eventually like him because of his relatively down-to-earth style, even if he never achieves Blair-style levels of euphoria) will come ON TOP of the 42-44% Labour are already polling - which itself is already enough for a comfortable majority. In a very worst case scenario, I think we can say pretty confidently that the Tories will definitely not get an overall majority at the next election, as I'd say Labour will get about 38% as a bare minimum at the next election thanks to Lib Dem left-wing defectors, which would simply be too high for the Tories to combat and get a majority on.

Tonight's UK-wide YouGov poll puts Labour on 44%, which is the highest any poll has had them since before the Iraq war! The Tories are on 39% and the Lib Dems are on 8%. The Lib Dems have only polled above 10% in two of 15 polls since Christmas.

 

Tonight's YouGov poll breaks that mark, putting Labour on 45%, which, again, is the highest since July 2002. They have a 10-point lead over the Tories on 35% and the Lib Dems on 9%; this is the first poll which has shown Labour outpolling both Coalition parties combined since the election. Were they to score this in an election (HUGE if, obviously), it would be Labour's highest share of the vote since 1966 (yes, bigger than the 1997 landslide).

Latest ICM poll in tomorrow's Guardian

 

Lab 38 (-1)

Con 35 (+0)

LDem 18 (+3)

 

Comparison with last month's poll.

 

ICM has generally shown a higher Lib Dem figure than the others and, of course, this may be a "rogue poll".

Labour's lead seems to be shrinking a bit... they've averaged "only" a 6-7 point lead over the last few polls, compared to a 8-9 point lead before. I'd say it's down to some of the worst of New Labour sleaze resurfacing, with Jacqui Smith crawling out of the woodwork and pictures of Blair shaking Gaddafi's hand in the media... it'll probably be reversed when cuts start dominating the news again within a few weeks...

Two YouGov polls in a row have shown Labour with an 11-point lead, and outpolling both Coalition parties combined. A ComRes poll today shows a much more modest score for Labour though - 40% to the Tories' 37%.

I've got a horrible feeling the Tories are going to get a bounce in the polls thanks to Libya - just in time for the local elections, sadly. :(

Oh shit, I should've known why he was so enthusiastic for military action. Classic shock doctrine behaviour. UGH.

Oh shit, I should've known why he was so enthusiastic for military action. Classic shock doctrine behaviour. UGH.

 

Not to mention it conviently comes just days before a Budget which is set to have "goodies" like snatching away basic employment rights... hmm.

I've got a horrible feeling the Tories are going to get a bounce in the polls thanks to Libya - just in time for the local elections, sadly. :(

 

I don't believe that that will happen.

 

It is not a UK war like the Falklands was that gave Margaret Thatcher such a boost it is simply the UK being part of a multi national operation. Attacking Karadzic and Milosevic didn't give John Major a boost nor did Iraq give Blair/Brown a boost.

 

I doubt someone who is being squeezed by the VAT rise, petrol prices, little or no pay rise this year and the local services being cut are going to suddenly turn around and vote for Cameron because of Libya.

 

I think there will be a large increase in support for the UKIP and sadly the BNP too at the expense of the tories.

nor did Iraq give Blair/Brown a boost.

 

I think it actually DID give Blair a boost at first, when Saddam fell so quickly and people believed we'd be out and finding the mythical weapons of mass destruction within days......and then the reality of the situation came, and it started to have a corrosive effect on his ratings. So it really depends on how the conflict itself pays out (though one thing that might cancel out any polling bonus for Cameron is that it's now becoming pretty clear that it was Sarkozy who was the main driving force behind-the-scenes, not Cameron as it originally seemed).

I think it actually DID give Blair a boost at first, when Saddam fell so quickly and people believed we'd be out and finding the mythical weapons of mass destruction within days......and then the reality of the situation came, and it started to have a corrosive effect on his ratings. So it really depends on how the conflict itself pays out (though one thing that might cancel out any polling bonus for Cameron is that it's now becoming pretty clear that it was Sarkozy who was the main driving force behind-the-scenes, not Cameron as it originally seemed).

 

I don't detect great public support for the Libyan conflict tbh, even Kelvin MacKenzie usually the most rabid of right wingers has been heavily critical of UK involvement in Libya.

 

Eek! New ICM poll gives the Tories their first lead since December (37% to 36%).

Aren't ICM the ones who almost grossly overestimate the support for the Lib Dems, saying their support is at pretty much the same level as it always is between elections? Fat chance...

Aren't ICM the ones who almost grossly overestimate the support for the Lib Dems, saying their support is at pretty much the same level as it always is between elections? Fat chance...

 

Yeah, this poll has the Lib Dems at 16%... I'd imagine this poll is a slight rogue, and Labour probably are still just about ahead really, but the Budget does seem to have been surprisingly well-received...