I wonder how much benefit Cheryl's X performance will actually have - for example, will it have more of an effect than Matt's Just The Way You Are performance did for Bruno Mars? :unsure:

 

Bigger.

 

What makes you so sure?

 

Just my inclination. ^_^

 

Ok, so when you say you're sure, you're really just hoping :)

 

I don't think the pop bar will increase substantially following the X performance (well certainly no more than the normal pop bar increase for a new release) - on the basis that (compared with Matt's Bruno Mars performance) a bigger proportion of those who are likely to buy Promise This in the first couple of days and who watch X Factor will already have bought the track prior to the X performance, and as a result the additional purchases following the X Factor performance will be marginal compared with the natural curve of purchases for any new track, and certainly compared with Bruno Mars' bar.

 

I'm not saying Cheryl's performance won't boost her popularity bar - of course it will - but as I'm saying, I don't think the effect is going to be anywhere near the effect Matt's performance had on Bruno's bar.

 

No spiidey, as i said i'm still sure. ;)

 

Ok, fair enough, I was just interested in your reasons and rationale for thinking that - that's why I asked you to expand on your original statement.

 

I accept it's just a hunch on your part though.

 

Yeah, just a hunch. :) As you say anyway we'll see, we'll have a good idea by tonight/tomorrow morning if the hunch comes true which i'm pretty sure it will do :lol:

 

Breakeven, Breakeven wherefore art thou Breakeven? :P

 

Before X performance:- Cheryl 38% ahead of Rihanna

Midnight last night:- Cheryl 48% ahead of Rihanna (+10%)

Now:- Cheryl 43% ahead of Rihanna (-5%)

 

As I said, nowhere near Bruno Mars +100% increase in pop bar.

 

======================================

 

Cheryl sales should be quite frontloaded considering she had all the promo on sat and sunday (Piers Morgan and X Factor). So from now on her lead should be decling until it stalls. Hopefully it will stalls ahead of Rihanna.

 

Yeah there's definitely a chance of that happening. Close of play tonight and the pop bars would normally be set pretty much for the full week. However, Cheryl's pop bar X effect will last until 9pm Tuesday evening so we won't know until midnight Tuesday-ish when the pop bars are "re-set" how the pop bars are likely to play out for the full week.

 

Rihanna will get to #1 on iTunes but I don't think there's any stopping Cheryl from getting the official #1. She sold far far more than Rihanna on Sunday, the week's biggest sales day, her EP is top 5 on iTunes albums, she has 4? other versions top 1,000 plus high physicals. Would be surprised if OG(ITW) even gets within 10k of Promise This this week.

Yep, completely agree. Rihanna will need at least a 50% lead on iTunes from Tuesday midnight onwards to overtake Cheryl's early lead I would have thought.

Before X performance:- Cheryl 38% ahead of Rihanna

Midnight last night:- Cheryl 48% ahead of Rihanna (+10%)

Now:- Cheryl 43% ahead of Rihanna (-5%)

 

As I said, nowhere near Bruno Mars +100% increase in pop bar.

 

The thing is you compare Cheryl's popbar to Rihanna's popbar, but Rihanna's popbar was still increasing a lot so it's a wrong scale of comparaison.

If you wanna know the real effect of the X Factor, you have to compare Cheryl's popbar to Bruno Mars's popbar, since he was most likely pretty static and therefore is a better scale of comparaison.

But Rihanna is the "new release" too, what about comparing Cheryl's lead to Bruno's? But you're right, the effect isn't really strong for her. It's probably because far more watchers of the X-Factor were aware of the song before the performance (because Cheryl is the judge of the show), unlike the Bruno's case when for far more of viewers his song was completely new and barely heard.

The thing is you compare Cheryl's popbar to Rihanna's popbar, but Rihanna's popbar was still increasing a lot so it's a wrong scale of comparaison.

If you wanna know the real effect of the X Factor, you have to compare Cheryl's popbar to Bruno Mars's popbar, since he was most likely pretty static and therefore is a better scale of comparaison.

No, that's the wrong way to compare the X Factor effect - because if I compared Cheryl's bar to Bruno's then I wouldn't be able to strip out the "new release" effect. i.e. the % increase would be as a result of the "new release" effect and "X Factor" effect combined.

 

Comparing it to Rihanna's, allows the X effect alone to be isolated as best as is possible as it removes the "new release" effect from the comparators.

 

 

 

But Rihanna is the "new release" too, what about comparing Cheryl's lead to Bruno's? But you're right, the effect isn't really strong for her. It's probably because far more watchers of the X-Factor were aware of the song before the performance (because Cheryl is the judge of the show), unlike the Bruno's case when for far more of viewers his song was completely new and barely heard.

Yeah, exactly what I hypothesised yesterday.

 

 

 

No, that's the wrong way to compare the X Factor effect - because if I compared Cheryl's bar to Bruno's then I wouldn't be able to strip out the "new release" effect. i.e. the % increase would be as a result of the "new release" effect and "X Factor" effect combined.

 

Comparing it to Rihanna's, allows the X effect alone to be isolated as best as is possible as it removes the "new release" effect from the comparators.

 

Yeah but when last week we said Bruno Mars had a 100% increase, it was not compared to the new releases specifically.

Do you have iTunes?

 

There's a link, that opens the pop bars. Does it work for you?

 

http://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore...aultSeeAllSongs

it just tells me it can't find itunes on my computer.. i definitely have it though!

Yeah but when last week we said Bruno Mars had a 100% increase, it was not compared to the new releases specifically.

Exactly - it was compared with other songs that were of a similar nature and therefore whose pop bars would be following similar movements - that allowed the X Factor effect to be calculated in isolation.

 

Cheryl's song is a new release, so in order to isolate the X Factor effect, it needs to be compared to other new releases, as these will be following a broadly similar sales curve / pop bar to Cheryl's.

Ooh that is clever ! So the conclusion is, the song has made it to the top on its own, and most of its success isn't down to the X Factor performance ! I like that. :lol:

Ooh that is clever ! So the conclusion is, the song has made it to the top on its own, and most of its success isn't down to the X Factor performance ! I like that. :lol:

Yes, it works that way too :cool:

I can finally see popularity bars on my itunes :w00t: whoever posted that link thank you!

 

Cheryl number 1 on amazon

 

rihanna at 3

Wonder if anything else can be talked about apart from Rihanna and Cheryl at the moment lol! Hope that Peter Andre can just squeeze into the Top.40 on Sunday's chart, haven't heard the song yet but still it will hopefully force radio stations to actually play his music. <_<

 

Don't think that Pet Shop Boys releasing Together early and straight after premiere without promotion by the looks is a good idea :( or with James Blunt. I didn't really know that he was releasing a new single soon until reading the singles release schedule :blink:

 

http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/5223/251010.png

Edited October 25, 201014 yr by JakeWild

The big question was how will Joe's album do after the single was classified as a chart-dissapointment. Well I just checked album chart on Itunes and it's #9 :o If it stays like that then he will make history for the lowest charting debut album from an X Factor winner, this is worse than how Leon did. He would have been safe in my opinion if the album went to No.1 and he got another Top.30 single but I'm worried. -_-

Amazing that Rihanna is actually closing in on Cheryl. If Cheryl hadnt had the X Factor slot or Rihanna had performed too then RiRi may have had a chance of getting a number one this week. Tells me that Cheryl isnt actually that huge as some make out. :naughty:

 

It's more like 'Only Girl' is one of the biggest Rihanna's tune ever. Just look at its lead over the rest of the top10, it's MASSIVE.

If anyone wants one then here's an Itunes Albums Chart update:

 

[3] The Wanted – The Wanted

[4] Taylor Swift – Speak Now

[5] Swedish House Mafia – Until One

[7] Sons Of Admirals - Sons Of Admirals

[8] Joe McElderry - Wide Awake :o

[11] BBC Radio 1's Live Lounge Vol.5

[23] Charlotte Church - Back To Scratch (I think it would have done better if released during Over The Rainbow)

[34] Elton John & Leon Russel - The Union

[36] Warpaint - The Fool

[53] Lauren Pritchard - Wasted In Jackson

[58] Bryan Ferry - Olympia

 

Robbie's album has slipped down a lot (only just in Top.40) :o

Edited October 25, 201014 yr by rors

If anyone wants one then here's an Itunes Albums Chart update:

 

[3] The Wanted – The Wanted

[4] Taylor Swift – Speak Now

[5] Swedish House Mafia – Until One

[7] Sons Of Admirals - Sons Of Admirals

[8] Joe McElderry - Wide Awake :o

[11] BBC Radio 1's Live Lounge Vol.5

[23] Charlotte Church - Back To Scratch (I think it would have done better if released during Over The Rainbow)

[34] Elton John & Leon Russel - The Union

[36] Warpaint - The Fool

[53] Lauren Pritchard - Wasted In Jackson

[58] Bryan Ferry - Olympia

 

Robbie's album has slipped down a lot (only just in Top.40) :o

 

Thanks for posting surprised Joe is only at 8, I hope he will at least be TOP 10 in the mids.Alexandra Burke just confirmed the next single will be The Silence.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJeZSODcOLQ

The big question was how will Joe's album do after the single was classified as a chart-dissapointment. Well I just checked album chart on Itunes and it's #9 :o If it stays like that then he will make history for the lowest charting debut album from an X Factor winner, this is worse than how Leon did. He would have been safe in my opinion if the album went to No.1 and he got another Top.30 single but I'm worried. -_-

 

Well, I think its safe to say that alot more people buy physical albums still - so I'd rather wait until tomorrow to see the midweeks to give a comparason on Leon, as I'm sure Leon didn't even make the top 10 albums on Itunes when he released

I think Rihanna will be #1 on iTunes in 2 days. But physicals could give an advantage to Cheryl.

Rihanna has physicals as well btw.

Cheryl has around 150% percent more than Bruno.

Last week no.2- sold 60-66k if in this week no.3 will sell a similar number of copies Cheryl will sell around 150-165 k, imho it's not possible that someone else may sell more even with X-Factor performance.

Edited October 25, 201014 yr by Tommy