Sheesh, you really do have it in for the Liberal Democrats don't you? Do you seriously think the majority of lifetime Lib Dem voters will hurry off to support Labour just because all of those first-timers and disenfranchised swingers who "agreed with Nick" last May probably have?

 

I for one will not.

 

If you're talking to me, I don't have it in for the Lib Dems as a party at all - I voted for them in the European elections in 2009 and, this time last year, I was even considering voting for them in the general election.

 

The party I have it in for is the Tories - and therefore, I'm disappointed in the Lib Dems for letting the Tories do absolutely everything they want on the economy and public services, and in some cases, actively helping and enabling the Tories to do what they want (on tuition fees, the Coalition won by 21 votes, and 27 Lib Dems voted in favour - doesn't take a genius to see it was literally the Lib Dems who let it happen).

 

And on your question - yes, I do think the majority of 2010 Lib Dem voters are going to abandon them - as the opinion polls attest to. They're clearly going to lose the vast majority of seats they hold where Labour are in second place, even if Tories tactically vote for them (despite the concerted campaign to get Tories to tactically vote Lib Dem in Oldham, Labour still significantly extended its lead over the Lib Dems, in a Lib-Lab marginal which has a much bigger Tory vote for the Libs to squeeze than most other Lib-Lab marginals); and, in the Lib Dems south/south-western seats, just losing Labour-supporting tactical voters (which inflated the Libs' score by about 3-4% last May) will be enough for the Tories to overtake them in most of those constituencies. Realistically, AV or no AV, the Lib Dems at this rate will only hold onto about 15 seats where their MPs have personal popularity (Kennedy, Campbell) - without that, their going to be destroyed in virtually every constituency.

I don't think switching party allegiance is the answer though - for all the 'red Ed' headlines, I don't really believe Labour have truly changed entirely from the "new" days where they pushed through traditional Tory legislation and the Lib Dems truly were the popular left of centre choice. Too much is written about situations where the Lib Dems have been obliged to change their manifesto stance and not enough about where they have softened what would otherwise have become far harsher legislation. There has to be give and take and their refusing to support Tory policies will simply result in them rejecting all Lib Dem contributions.

 

I'd have preferred it if the Lib Dems had not gone into coalition at all and we'd had a period with a hung parliament where only fair legislation was passed by virtue of it winning a cross-party vote. But that would not have happened - and instead could and probably would have led to a second election in October where the Tories would have scored their majority...mainly due to voter apathy at having to turn out twice in a year I reckon.

Can't believe that there is no discussion in here about Egypt!!

Can't believe that there is no discussion in here about Egypt!!

There is - albeit a fairly quiet one

 

http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=124497

 

If you add to it and put it back near the top, maybe more people will contribute

The problem is there isn't really much TO discuss with Egypt. Short of bringing back Craig, I think we're all in agreement that Mubarak needs to be out.

The problem is there isn't really much TO discuss with Egypt. Short of bringing back Craig, I think we're all in agreement that Mubarak needs to be out.

How did you guess that Craig wants Mubarak to stay? :lol:

How did you guess that Craig wants Mubarak to stay? :lol:

 

Oh, God, does he ACTUALLY? :lol:

Oh, call it an uneducated guess.

Oh, God, does he ACTUALLY? :lol:

On the other hand though I hope Mubarak stays and sees off this mob but brings in proper democracy.

 

Mubarak has been helpful towards the west and has also had peace with israel, islamic fundamentalists get into power first thing they will probably do is attack Israel (although we would crush them) so what I want to see is a Mubarak led administration but run as a proper democracy

As you can see, Craig thinks that Egyptian voters, if given the choice, should consider what is best for Israel rather than what is best for Egypt. Not exactly the greatest surprise ever.

I don't think switching party allegiance is the answer though - for all the 'red Ed' headlines, I don't really believe Labour have truly changed entirely from the "new" days where they pushed through traditional Tory legislation and the Lib Dems truly were the popular left of centre choice. Too much is written about situations where the Lib Dems have been obliged to change their manifesto stance and not enough about where they have softened what would otherwise have become far harsher legislation. There has to be give and take and their refusing to support Tory policies will simply result in them rejecting all Lib Dem contributions.

 

I'd have preferred it if the Lib Dems had not gone into coalition at all and we'd had a period with a hung parliament where only fair legislation was passed by virtue of it winning a cross-party vote. But that would not have happened - and instead could and probably would have led to a second election in October where the Tories would have scored their majority...mainly due to voter apathy at having to turn out twice in a year I reckon.

 

While there's legitimate critiques that the Labour government didn't do enough for the poor, you surely can't seriously think that the Coalition will be more progressive and do more for the poor than Labour did? Take it from me, there's plenty of hard-left people who left Labour due to disillusionment over the last 13 years (some of whom even started voting Lib Dem), who are now rejoining the party because they're seeing what the Coalition are doing and realising Labour are the lesser of two evils.

 

And here's proof that Clegg plans to position the Lib Dems to the right of Labour at the next election (although I think it's quite cute that he thinks he's going to be leader at the next election)... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/polit...y-2211230.html#

 

My preference before the last election was a Lib-Lab coalition (it was my first preference ahead of a Labour majority government, actually - I wanted Labour's economic policies and the Lib Dems' civil liberties and political reform policies) - but, obviously, the way the seats ended up stacking up made that unfeasible. But, in the circumstances, I would've much preferred the Lib Dems to let the Tories form a minority government, as that would have been genuinely more centrist than the Coalition as the Lib Dems would've had a veto over each and every policy... and I highly doubt the Tories would've got a majority at a second election last year (they wouldn't've been able to claim there was a "Greek crisis" in this country with the deficit, and that they needed to act in the "national interest" - and then engineered a needless election months later). I was at a loss to understand why the hell the Lib Dems went into coalition with the Tories at the time, as it seemed to me they had nothing to gain and everything to lose (and so it has proved) - but, in my view, it's become clear since then that the Orange Book Mafia of Clegg, Laws and Alexander genuinely agree with the Tories on the economy.

My preference before the last election was a Lib-Lab coalition (it was my first preference ahead of a Labour majority government, actually - I wanted Labour's economic policies and the Lib Dems' civil liberties and political reform policies) - but, obviously, the way the seats ended up stacking up made that unfeasible. But, in the circumstances, I would've much preferred the Lib Dems to let the Tories form a minority government, as that would have been genuinely more centrist than the Coalition as the Lib Dems would've had a veto over each and every policy... and I highly doubt the Tories would've got a majority at a second election last year (they wouldn't've been able to claim there was a "Greek crisis" in this country with the deficit, and that they needed to act in the "national interest" - and then engineered a needless election months later). I was at a loss to understand why the hell the Lib Dems went into coalition with the Tories at the time, as it seemed to me they had nothing to gain and everything to lose (and so it has proved) - but, in my view, it's become clear since then that the Orange Book Mafia of Clegg, Laws and Alexander genuinely agree with the Tories on the economy.

A Labour / Lib Dem coalition would have been my preference too but, as you say, the result made that impossible.

 

If the Lib Dems had refused to join a coalition they would have been accused of bottling it the first time they had a chance of being in government. The Tories would have engineered an election by going for a populist issue on which they knew they would be defeated - before unveiling things like their NHS plans. My guess is that they would have chosen repeal of the Human Rights Act. They - supported by most of the press - would have tried to make that the central campaign issue. They would also have argued that a Lib Dme vote was a vote for indecision and instability. Any attempts by Labour and Lib Dems to criticise them for calling an unnecessary election would probably have fallen on deaf ears.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean they would have won a majority. However, I still think Labour (even with a new leader) would have struggled to win enough seats to do a deal with the Lib Dems.

 

The worst part of the election result - and something not mentioned very often - is that the Lib Dem vote actually went up. If that had been matched by an increase in seats, they would have been in a much stronger position in the negotiations. Of course, if the arithmetic had allowed for a deal with Labour as well, their position would have been a lot stronger.

 

The fact the Lib Dem vote went up to levels not seen for 100 years and was met with an actual LOSS in seats also explains the importance of this May's referendum. It's a tiny step towards PR, but it is a step and Labour's refusal to offer a referendum (particularly bizarre now Ed is campaigning for a 'Yes' vote) was a big decider in the Lib Dems going with the Tories.

 

Should the referendum return a 'no' then I think that will be the final straw for non-Cabinet Lib Dems.

I genuinely think AV would actually work AGAINST the Lib Dems at the next election, assuming they stay in the Coalition 'til the end. Their only hope to get a non-disastrous tally of MPs is dependent on strong local reputations of certain MPs - but, outside of that hardcore support, they're going to find it very hard to pick up any support at all, be it from first preferences or second preferences. AV would make a very tough climate for 'Marmite' parties, and the only party that will be more 'Marmite' than the Lib Dems at the next election will be the BNP I think. They're going to find it very tough to get 50% of support in ANY constituency imo.

I genuinely think AV would actually work AGAINST the Lib Dems at the next election, assuming they stay in the Coalition 'til the end. Their only hope to get a non-disastrous tally of MPs is dependent on strong local reputations of certain MPs - but, outside of that hardcore support, they're going to find it very hard to pick up any support at all, be it from first preferences or second preferences. AV would make a very tough climate for 'Marmite' parties, and the only party that will be more 'Marmite' than the Lib Dems at the next election will be the BNP I think. They're going to find it very tough to get 50% of support in ANY constituency imo.

 

I'm not sure that's true, I'd imagine many Conservatives will have them as second option particularly if there's no UKIP candidate. It won't be enough to get them many seats but it's mildly better for them than FPTP.

 

Oh, and possibly the reason it's not that bizarre that Ed's backing AV when his party never held a referendum on it while in power is because he was never leader until now and would be a relatively small influence if the issue came up. Either that or when Labour were in power they had no way of profiting from AV, whereas now they're back in opposition with such a handsome lead in the polls they're unlikely to lose out from it.

My (slightly eccentric) predictions are as follows:

1. Labour will comfortably win the "Old and Sad" by-election
2. Andrew Lansley will become the first member of the Cabinet to go (apart from Laws); the bulk of his propsed NHS reforms will then be scrapped
3. The Coalition will suffer its first House of Commons defeat on an EU-related matter
4. A nationwide "spring of discontent" with violent protests from late March fuelled by the VAT rise, transport and petrol costs booming and job losses while bankers claim their bonuses in full
5. Labour make big gains in the local elections, polling about 44%, to the Tories' 32% and the Lib Dems collapsing to 7%, while UKIP and the Greens do extremely well.
6. Labour regain power in Scotland as a minority government, and they form a majority government in Wales
7. The AV referendum returns a narrow "Yes" result
8. Ken Clarke's prison reforms to pass in the Commons despite a massive rebellion on the Tory backbenches
9. In early autumn, David Davis forms the breakaway Mainstream Conservative Party, pledging repatriation of power from the EU, much tougher policies on crime and tougher line on immigration; taking 50 current Tory MPs including Liam Fox, John Redwood and Nadine Dorries. The Coalition consequently loses its majority
10. By the end of the year, the Coalition are regularly losing votes in the Commons due to their lack of a majority, made worse by the majority of Lib Dem backbenchers frequently rebelling. All the talk is of the Mainstream Tories (who have agreed an electoral pact with UKIP) collaborating with Labour and minority parties to pass a motion of no confidence in the Coalition in the new year
11. Opinion polls at the end of the year: Labour 40%; Mainstream Tories 27%; Coalition Tories 15%; Lib Dems 5%; Others 13%

Oh, if only. Any for 2012, if you're anywhere out there Danny?