It's what we do. Welcome :)

 

Anyway, some random predictions I'll make for now - Ireland, Iceland and Portugal will qualify. Albania and Ukraine might not. Sweden will not be in the top half of the scoreboard on final night. And we won't win, but we'll come damn close.

 

:mellow:

 

...Keith?? :o

Well I am Judas, so maybe I'm betraying you three times :kink: What's the most :o thing for you here?

Well I am Judas, so maybe I'm betraying you three times :kink: What's the most :o thing for you here?

 

To be fair, I do agree with alot of that, it's just a very Keith Mills set of predictions :lol:

 

I agree with Iceland qualifying, and probably Ireland, but definitely not Portugal. I just don't think it will travel. As for Albania and Ukraine, they're borderline, but I can see Albania just missing and Ukraine just making it. In fact I don't think there's any way Ukraine will miss out, it is Ukraine.

 

As for Sweden I think you and Tyron are both being very stubborn :P I can realistically see Popular finishing top 5, but also bottom 5.

It's alright, I knew where you were going with that. I will do a proper prediction later, I was just trying to keep the thread alive (not that that's my job, also when are we going to make the forum wording about Dusseldorf?) Portugal will strike the same kind of chord as Latvia 2008 (I think), We Are The Winners. OK it might not go through but if it does I expect it to do a lot better than most people think.

 

Maybe so. I accept now that it will probably qualify but considering he was using recorded backing vocals in MF if the performance isn't spot on he's doomed. Blue likewise I'm afraid.

My current top 5 prediction;

 

1. France

2. United Kingdom

3. Estonia

4. Azerbaijan

----------------

5. Sweden/Norway/Bosnia-Herzegovina

 

But I do think that that top 4 is pretty solid and locked in right now. Not necessarily in that order, but definitely those four songs. Although I'm starting to wonder if Hungary are actually a legitimate dark horse or are just destined to pull a Charlotte Perrelli :unsure: I'm predicting 10th-14th for them right now anyway.

I just don't think Portugal's song is as universal as Lithuania's...I really can't see it reaching nearly as big an audience as Lithuania's did, especially as it isn't even in English.

 

As for Eric I do agree...if they want to make Popular as much of an event performance as it was in Melodifestivalen then either the vocals will suffer, or the choreography will suffer.

i'm really looking forward to eurovision this year for once cos i actually think we've got a chance of winning. i watched that documentary and the song they've chosen is so catchy and i think it's gonna help that they've already been quite successful in europe in the past. i've not heard any of the other songs but i usually don't like ours and i like this years a lot so that's a good start. good to see looking back a few back that other people think we've got a good chance this year too!

 

i tell a lie i have heard popular by eric saade from where tyron posted it somewhere and that's pretty catchy! cheesy as hell but i can't get it out of my head which i suppose is the whole point.

Edited April 21, 201114 yr by JakeWild

I still think that if a song is destined to do well, the artist can deliver a sub-par vocal and it will still do well imo. The only songs that I can think of that have ever bombed due to poor vocals were never in contention to win in the first place. It just means that a song that might have otherwise got a more middling result (UK 2003, Malta 2006, Ireland 2007 goes straight down to the bottom). I wouldn't say that either Alexander Rybak or Lena's vocals were spot on, far from it, but it didn't do them any harm. I know people blame Gina G's vocals on her failure to come and higher than 8th, and whilst there's probably some truth in that it was a different time - it was 100% juries and that song was not the style that they were voting for - the top 3 that year was all new age mid-tempo or ballad pop meets world music. I don't think her vocal performance would have knocked her down any more than 1 or 2 places.

 

Safura's vocals were quite dire in places, Chanee and N'Evergreen completely lacked chemistry yet they both still managed top five last year. I know Safura was supposedly a huge contender but it didn't get any sort of chart success anywhere after the contest so it can't have ever been in contention for the win realistically. I really don't think that Blue and Eric Saade's fortunes rest entirely on their vocals, more on how people take to the songs and the whole package themselves. An average vocal will be enough to take them to wherever it was they were destined to go in the first place. Only if they failed to sing at all would it have an impact imo :lol:

I think the impact of vocals on the result really depends on how reliant the song is on good vocals. For example, taking into account the singers that we know aren't really up to scratch, I don't think Jedward or Eric Saade will suffer too much because of their vocals, as they aren't the song's unique selling point (when I mentioned vocals suffering, I meant the overall vocal sound, not just Eric's). Whereas with Dana International and Kati Wolf, the vocals are alot more prominant in their songs, and they're bigger sings in general with bigger melodies than Lipstick or Popular, so in their case, I think a poor vocal performance could be alot more damaging.

It's alright, I knew where you were going with that. I will do a proper prediction later, I was just trying to keep the thread alive (not that that's my job, also when are we going to make the forum wording about Dusseldorf?) Portugal will strike the same kind of chord as Latvia 2008 (I think), We Are The Winners. OK it might not go through but if it does I expect it to do a lot better than most people think.

Lithuania 2006, Latvia 2008 was the pirates :P

I still think we're going to win. The only threats imo are France and Azerbaijan, and from the three we've got the most universal song. And a decent position in the draw. Azerbaijan are a possibility to do really well, but from everyone that I've played it to, no one has really seemed particularly impressed. In fact, most prefer Slovakia... Let's be honest, if Azerbaijan and Slovakia were sending each other's acts, the Azeri odds would still be as high as they are and Slovakia's still as low.

I think Azerbaijan's would be lesser if they sent I'm Still Alive. ISA sounds like a demo that goes nowhere, Running Scared very much doesn't...

Portugal will strike the same kind of chord as Latvia 2008 (I think), We Are The Winners. OK it might not go through but if it does I expect it to do a lot better than most people think.

 

The problem with Portugal is that it isn't in English, and it'll translate on screen more as "Portugal is mad at/doesn't need Europe" which is completely the wrong message. I don't think anyone outside of Portugal will understand the proper meaning of the song unless they are already clued up on what it's about.

I've decided to have my third Aspergers moment of the year and do another full run of the voting :w00t:

Whatever happens, I can't see any of these songs having the same international chart success as Fairytale and Satellite did. I Can could be pretty big, but not as big as those two, Rockefeller Street still sounds slightly too amateurish to me to be a huge smash anywhere. Running Scared wouldn't be a hit anywhere, certainly not one with prolonged success. Strangely, I could actually imagine Sognu soaring to the top the iTunes charts in a few countries :o I know it's not contemporary but it does have that 'unique' feel to it that would appeal to music buyers, well, when they're not lapping up the 'club bangers' of course.

 

Eric Saade needs to whip himself up some Justin Bieber style hype, and he could easily have a huge hit with Popular (and anything if they marketed him right!). I know people are saying 'do well but won't win' to both of them but right now, I still can't see past a France/UK top 2, in whatever order, unless that hype's whipped up for Saade!

Haba Haba could do well commercially I think. It's the one song all my friends have taken to and most of them think it'll win, they don't care much for any of the others apart from Blue and Jedward for the "I know them!" factor.

This is going to be an absolute bloodbath on the 10th, isn't it? Here's my analysis which has focused far more on voting patterns (be they related to countries, positions, types of song etc.) than my previous ones:

 

SF1

 

01 [01] · 114 · Azerbaijan

02 [02] · 110 · Hungary

03 [04] · 109 · Finland

04 [14] · 097 · Switzerland

05 [07] · 087 · Greece

06 [05] · 082 · Norway

07 [11] · 076 · Turkey

08 [03] · 069 · Russia

09 [09] · 069 · Georgia

10 [06] · 060 · Serbia

--------------------

11 [15] · 057 · Albania

12 [16] · 056 · Iceland

13 [12] · 054 · Poland

14 [10] · 048 · Armenia

15 [13] · 044 · Croatia

16 [08] · 044 · Lithuania

17 [17] · 020 · San Marino

18 [18] · 020 · Portugal

19 [19] · 009 · Malta

 

I was thinking Iceland and Poland would be qualifying through most of it and that Greece and Turkey wouldn't, until the end - but they have far more diaspora and support than I thought, and Russia have far less (only really the Caucasian votes to count on). Hungary will get pretty much the same sort of vote that Hera Bjork got, but overall this is a far less stratified semi-final than last year's. I'm thinking Switzerland are shoo-ins now.

Not gonna do the whole final prediciton, but I'm thinking we (UK) are gonna finish top 3 for sure - and we'll probably win I'm thinking atm :o :w00t: :wub: I also predict Estonia, Sweden and France to be top 5 :) Maybe Norway too but I have a feeling they'll be like 8th/9th rather than the top 3 they deserve :( And the girl who predicted Belgium a page or two ago made me lol :D They'd get nul points if it was up to me! :puke:

Edited April 21, 201114 yr by Liаm

Haba Haba could do well commercially I think. It's the one song all my friends have taken to and most of them think it'll win, they don't care much for any of the others apart from Blue and Jedward for the "I know them!" factor.

 

Yep I can see that actually, I forgot all about Haba Haba! Allez Ola Ole was one of the biggest hits last year and I could see this being at least as big as that. In fact it already seems to be taking off in Sweden - top 30 on iTunes already. With a great draw/performance, this could still do some damage actually, but I'm still predicting 5th-10th.

Yep I can see that actually, I forgot all about Haba Haba! Allez Ola Ole was one of the biggest hits last year and I could see this being at least as big as that. In fact it already seems to be taking off in Sweden - top 30 on iTunes already. With a great draw/performance, this could still do some damage actually, but I'm still predicting 5th-10th.

 

It does all depend on the draw and her vocals, but lots of my friends are saying it's the winner. I can see why, when I first saw it I got that "there's the winner" feeling. It just seems a bit odd predicting them to win so soon after their last victory. I guess it's because we're not used to the same country winning in quick succession.