Posted March 16, 201213 yr It's probably time, and this was the title format that pulled in a RIDIC amount of punters last year (with 24,000 or so views and the top result on google for 'eurovision 2011 predictions') so it's time to give it another whirl! My predictions for both semis (and maybe the final) in DUE COURSE - but as ever bear in mind how inaccurate the first predictions tend to be. Last year I got 7/10 right from my first prediction for SF1 (getting defeated by the triple shock of Norway, Armenia and Turkey all going out) and 8/10 right in my first prediction for SF2 (being defeated by novelty, predicting that Dana would make it in for Israel along with Latvia and that Jedward wouldn't for Ireland and So Lucky wouldn't for Moldova. Argh.). That said I DID correctly predict Azerbaijan to win in my first prediction for the final and just ten points within its final score, so it's not all bad! *.* (Let's just ignore that I predicted the UK and France for 2nd and 3rd at the same time.)
March 16, 201213 yr As I posted in the other thread, here's what I think for semi final two... 1.Sweden 2.Bosnia & Herzegovina 3.Norway 4.Ukraine 5.Serbia 6.Portugal 7.Slovenia 8.Netherlands 9.Turkey 10.Lithuania 11.Estonia 12.Malta 13.Croatia 14.Bulgaria 15.FYR Macedonia 16.Slovakia 17.Belarus 18.Georgia
March 16, 201213 yr Here's my first ranking of SF2, maybe I will change it later because I'm sleepy now and I can't think correctly :lol: 01 Ukraine 02 Sweden 03 Serbia 04 Turkey 05 Norway 06 Croatia 07 Portugal 08 Slovenia 09 Bosnia-Herzegovina 10 Netherlands 11 Estonia 12 Malta 13 Belarus 14 Georgia 15 FYROM 16 Bulgaria 17 Lithuania 18 Slovakia I did a chart trying to guess the awarded points but think it's not so good (so I'm not posting the points :D ) I'll do this later when I can ... Ukraine 1st and Turkey 4th? What did I do? :lol:
March 16, 201213 yr 1. Serbia 2. Sweden 3. Slovenia 4. Norway 5. Ukraine 6. Bosnia & Herzegovina 7. Netherlands 8. Turkey 9. FYR Macedonia 10. Croatia 11. Portugal 12. Slovakia 13. Estonia 14. Bulgaria 15. Lithuania 16. Belarus 17. Malta 18. Georgia I'm fairly sure most Balkan countries will advance.
March 16, 201213 yr 1. Sweden 2. Serbia 3. Norway 4. Ukraine 5. Slovenia 6. Turkey 7. Bosnia & Herzegovina 8. Bulgaria 9. Netherlands 10. Croatia 11. Estonia 12. Portugal 13. Lithuania 14. Malta 15. Macedonia 16. Slovakia 17. Georgia 18. Belarus I feel like people are probably being too shy/wary and not putting Sweden in 1st as a result in case they jinx it. Probably since I'm not looning about it as much it's easier for me to say it'll be on top. :P We also need to remember that the Jury votes can easily throw a spanner in the works for countries that would usually slip through in 8th-10th in previous years. They make things so much more unpredictable. To be honest I haven't a clue why I'm putting Serbia so high, I think it's mostly because I'm not sure what other country would get 2nd. It would probably be a little naive to put a Sweden/Norway top two. You could probably swap Croatia for Estonia or Portugal....it's an iffy area. Edited March 16, 201213 yr by Sabrewulf
March 16, 201213 yr I'm struggling to envisage Loreen not WALKING Semi 2. The Balkan ballads will all appeal hugely to the other Balkans and less so to the other countries here, lets face it, there's nothing anywhere near the level of Molitva, even Lejla here in that genre with huge crossover potential to Western nations, they're all very subtle growers this year. But Euphoria I can honestly see getting (mostly high) votes from every country in this semi. Despite my way off the mark landslide predictions in the Norwegian and Danish NF's and last month's BJSC, I never lost my optimism and gut feeling that Euphoria would walk Melodifestivalen and I'm fairly certain that it will walk this semi. I'm not even going to contemplate anything else winning it, call it blind looning but it's not even funny how much better it is than everything else in this semi. If the juries and televoters in this semi can't see that then more fool them.
March 16, 201213 yr I think if the Slovenian entry is spruced up to make it more powerful (For example, those backing vocals need to be so much stronger) then that could rake in a high number of votes to place it within the top 3 of the semi. I would like to see Sweden walk SF2, and I think it is very possible, but I do think there are just too many Balkan nations in this semi for Serbia not to come out on top. Zeljko is a very big name across the whole region. Edit: Carried over from the previous thread, my prediction: 01 Serbia: Željko Joksimović - Nije Ljubav Stvar 02 Sweden: Loreen - Euphoria 03 Norway: Tooji - Stay 04 Slovenia: Eva Boto - Verjamem 05 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Maya Sar - Korake Ti Znam 06 Ukraine: Gaitana - Be My Guest 07 Turkey: Can Bonomo - Love Me Back 08 Estonia: Ott Lepland - Kuula 09 Netherlands: Joan Franka - You And Me 10 Croatia: Nina Badrić - Nebo 11 Bulgaria: Sofi Marinova - Love Unlimited 12 Portugal: Filipa Sousa - Vida Minha 13 Macedonia: Kaliopi - Crno i Belo 14 Slovakia: Max Jason Mai - Don't Close Your Eyes 15 Lithuania: Donny Montell - Love Is Blind 16 Belarus: Litesound - We Are The Heroes 17 Georgia: Anri Jokhadze - I'm A Joker 18 Malta: Kurt Calleja - This Is The Night
March 16, 201213 yr I think if the Slovenian entry is spruced up to make it more powerful (For example, those backing vocals need to be so much stronger) then that could rake in a high number of votes to place it within the top 3 of the semi. They will be, she's going to have 5 backing vocalists in Baku :D Will do this later, I agree that Serbia might be ahead of Sweden in the semi but the other way round in the final. I'm still reluctant to call Sweden the winner though.
March 18, 201213 yr Obviously we don't know what's happening with San Marino, but for now my predictions are the following: Semi Final 1: 01 Denmark 02 Iceland 03 Greece 04 Albania 05 Romania 06 Moldova 07 Russia 08 Ireland 09 Finland 10 Belgium 11 Israel 12 Cyprus 13 Hungary 14 Latvia 15 Switzerland 16 Austria 17 San Marino 18 Montenegro Semi Final 2: 01 Serbia 02 Sweden 03 Norway 04 Slovenia 05 Bosnia 06 Ukraine 07 Croatia 08 Slovakia 09 Turkey 10 Netherlands 11 Malta 12 Portugal 13 Estonia 14 Macedonia 15 Bulgaria 16 Lithuania 17 Georgia 18 Belarus Unless the draws and rehearsals scupper/maximize the chances of some songs greatly, then those are the predictions I'll be sticking with.
March 18, 201213 yr Semi 1 1. Greece 2. Iceland 3. Romania 4. Denmark 5. Moldova 6. Cyprus 7. Hungary 8. Ireland 9. Latvia 10. Belgium 11. Russia 12. Israel 13. Albania 14. Finland 15. Austria 16. San Marino 17. Switzerland 18. Montenegro I know people love to say "ah Russia will get through anyway" but I'm coming round to the idea that they might just miss out on account of the juries ripping it apart and having to share novelty votes with San Marino and Montenegro. I'm fairly sure we'll again see Greece run away with this semi for goodness knows why. Moldova is quickly rooting itself as that annoying country that always does 10 times better than I expect it to....so I'm covering my bases this time around. Just to have both semis in the one post: Semi 2 1. Sweden 2. Serbia 3. Norway 4. Ukraine 5. Slovenia 6. Turkey 7. Bosnia & Herzegovina 8. Bulgaria 9. Netherlands 10. Estonia 11. Portugal 12. Croatia 13. Lithuania 14. Malta 15. Macedonia 16. Slovakia 17. Georgia 18. Belarus Only change is making Estonia and qualifier and Croatia a DNQ Edited March 18, 201213 yr by Sabrewulf
March 18, 201213 yr Semi 1 01 Denmark 02 Iceland 03 Russia 04 Greece 05 Ireland 06 Albania 07 Cyprus 08 Romania 09 Belgium 10 Finland 11 Israel 12 Moldova 13 Switzerland 14 Austria 15 Latvia 16 Hungary 17 San Marino 18 Montenegro Semi 2 01 Serbia 02 Sweden 03 Slovenia 04 Norway 05 Ukraine 06 Bosnia & Herzegovina 07 Netherlands 08 Turkey 09 FYR Macedonia 10 Croatia 11 Portugal 12 Slovakia 13 Estonia 14 Bulgaria 15 Lithuania 16 Belarus 17 Malta 18 Georgia
March 18, 201213 yr Semi Final 1: 01 Greece 02 Russia 03 Denmark 04 Romania 05 Iceland 06 Ireland 07 Cyprus 08 Finland 09 Albania 10 Belgium 11 Latvia 12 Israel 13 Moldova 14 Hungary 15 Austria 16 Switzerland 17 San Marino 18 Montenegro Is it possible to even distinguish the bottom two, both could be nul pointers, unless some televoters think that either one is 'hilarious'. Austria and Switzerland also have no chance, Hungary probably not a huge chance. I'd say that it will be between the top 13, it would be sad to see Latvia miss out but it does seem like the sort of thing that could DNQ. It's hard to predict the top end, but Greece always do well in the semis so seem like a safe bet, Romania, Russia and the Scandi countries should be up that way too... I'm not seeing Denmark winning this semi, it's a pleasant MOR song but doesn't feel much like a huge Eurovision smash to me, we'll see I guess, the bookies still have it as third favourite. I'm thinking more like 7th-12th for it in the final.
March 18, 201213 yr How can people put Russia in the top two/three? Isn't it obvious the juries will rate it poorly? This isn't just the public vote we're talking about (I'm sure it'll be top two/three in the public vote) Russia did poorly with the juries in the semi last year (16th), and it was only because Russia came 4th in the public vote that they were able to get 9th place and scrape through.. If anything the grannies this year could do even worse or just scrape through. I don't see Russia as being above dnq. Greece on the other hand.... Especially now that San Marino and Montenegro are in the second half along with them. There's so many things counting against them already. Edited March 18, 201213 yr by Sabrewulf
March 18, 201213 yr I will say: Semi 1: 01 Greece 02 Romania 03 Russia 04 Cyprus 05 Denmark 06 Ireland 07 Iceland 08 Belgium 09 Albania 10 Finland 11 Israel 12 Moldova 13 Hungary 14 Latvia 15 Switzerland 16 Austria 17 San Marino 18 Montenegro Semi 2: 01 Sweden 02 Serbia 03 Norway 04 Ukraine 05 Slovenia 06 Turkey 07 Bosnia & Herzegovina 08 Netherlanda 09 Croatia 10 FYR Macedonia 11 Bulgaria 12 Slovakia 13 Portugal 14 Estonia 15 Lithuania 16 Malta 17 Belarus 18 Georgia
March 18, 201213 yr It's not obvious. At all. Both the jury AND public loved them in the Russian NF. I still very much believe they will be at least Top 10 with the juries.
March 18, 201213 yr It's not obvious. At all. Both the jury AND public loved them in the Russian NF. I still very much believe they will be at least Top 10 with the juries. Russian jury != Other European juries
March 18, 201213 yr The jury consisted of important music people of Russia so it all wasn't exactly irrelevant.
March 18, 201213 yr The jury consisted of important music people of Russia so it all wasn't exactly irrelevant. Not entirely relevant either though.
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