March 18, 201213 yr I don't even think as a song that it's novelty really. Of course the fact a load of 70odd year old Russian grannies are singing it brings the novelty factor, but would it be novelty if Ivi Adamou sang it? No. It's just a fun dance song with some ethnic influences. I don't think the juries not supporting it as much as Denmark or Greece (for example) really matters, I doubt the juries will bring about that much of a downfall.
March 18, 201213 yr Russia came 7th in the semi final in 2010 with a really an awful song, this year I think Russia will DNQ with this crappy song...
March 18, 201213 yr Russia came 7th in the semi final in 2010 with a really an awful song, this year I think Russia will DNQ with this crappy song... http://29.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lmt58wnCKo1qav62ho1_500.jpg If only you made sense. 'Crappy' isn't really worse than 'really awful'. Definitely not more-than-3-places-in-the scoreboard worse.
March 18, 201213 yr Author People, there's no way in hell Russia won't qualify. Even if the juries decided they hated it, there'll be enough support from the televoters to get it through easily (the most mathematically a jury can limit a big televote track to is a 3 - in practice, if a countrry gets 12 off the televote and nothing off the juries then it tends to end up with 8/10/12 in the actual vote). And also, I think people have far too much of a tendency to think the juries are really easy to predict and will always go for the classy and respectable - they don't always do so. France last year didn't finish top ten with the juries. Ireland did (indeed, Jedward did better with the juries than with the televoters!). Loads of leaked jury votes from 2007 had a lot of votes for Verka. And so on - it's unlikely the juries will be able to keep Russia out of the final if the televote follows the pattern of the casual cult hype it's gotten already, and in all probability a fair few jury members will go along with it. Russia is absolutely sailing into the final and I'd go as far as to say it's probably the most certain qualifier of the whole thing. Only Serbia and maybe Sweden come close. None of this is to say I think Russia will win, but I think a lot of bad analysis is underpinning this claim that Russia probably won't qualify because of the juries...
March 18, 201213 yr Russia will qualify with ease, and do well in the final. I reckon it will come 2nd-4th in the overall televote in the final and low top ten with the juries equating to 4th-7th overall. I also agree with Tirren, there's no point trying to predict how the juries will vote, they're a law unto themselves. If they can vote in spades for Jedward then there's nothing to suggest that they're going to absolutely kill off the grannies. Sure they won't win the jury vote but they'll do well enough.
March 19, 201213 yr For me it's nice to see that you think The Netherlands will qualify. Why do you think that? I am from The Netherlands and I really think that we will have bad luck this year. Again, after 7 years.... I don't like the song, and I don't hate it. She wrote the sons herself and her parents are from Turkey. Maybe she will have support from Turkey and some other countries. I also think that the 'happy' lyrics and tune will appeal to some people and that the staging with her clothes will draw attention. But still I don't think this will be enough. What are your thoughts? Why do some people think she will be in the top 10?
March 19, 201213 yr Author If Switzerland could make it last year, I think this will. It's also got a bit more to it than Anna Rossinelli had I think - it's got a stronger hook and sticks in your mind a lot more than that. I reckon the juries will like it, even if it doesn't cross over to the public as a whole.
March 19, 201213 yr I am terribly in love with the dutch entry this year. Such a massive grower :wub:
March 19, 201213 yr If Switzerland could make it last year, I think this will. It's also got a bit more to it than Anna Rossinelli had I think - it's got a stronger hook and sticks in your mind a lot more than that. I reckon the juries will like it, even if it doesn't cross over to the public as a whole. So you think the jury won't see it as a joke? (Because of the clothes).
March 19, 201213 yr Author So long as they emphasise the reason for the head-dress (the whole her and the boy she had a crush on when she was young playing cowboys and Indians thing) I don't see why they should.
March 19, 201213 yr I hope to god Joan changes outfit for the contest. I mean I hate the song anyway, but the head-dress is actually kinda racist.
March 19, 201213 yr Author I hope to god Joan changes outfit for the contest. I mean I hate the song anyway, but the head-dress is actually kinda racist. I think implying it as racist is going a bit far. It's not like she's stating any race to be worse than another, or even claiming all Native Americans wear warbonnets? Someone would have to be remarkably thin-skinned to take offence at it...
March 19, 201213 yr Russia will qualify with ease, and do well in the final. I reckon it will come 2nd-4th in the overall televote in the final and low top ten with the juries equating to 4th-7th overall. I also agree with Tirren, there's no point trying to predict how the juries will vote, they're a law unto themselves. If they can vote in spades for Jedward then there's nothing to suggest that they're going to absolutely kill off the grannies. Sure they won't win the jury vote but they'll do well enough. I don't think they will do that well in the jury vote. They will be seen more as a joke act, where, yes they will do well in the televotes but not with the jury.
March 19, 201213 yr I think implying it as racist is going a bit far. It's not like she's stating any race to be worse than another, or even claiming all Native Americans wear warbonnets? Someone would have to be remarkably thin-skinned to take offence at it... I suppose, but the problem is that it's disrepectful to Native American culture, and she doesn't really have the right to wear it. --- Anyway my predictions... Semi 1 01 Greece 02 Russia 03 Romania 04 Iceland 05 Denmark 06 Ireland 07 Austria --- 08 Albania 09 Finland 10 Israel --- 11 Cyprus 12 Hungary --- 13 Moldova 14 Latvia 15 Belgium 16 San Marino 17 Switzerland 17 Montenegro 1-3 are really the usual supects, I'm pretty damn sure about 4-7, and 8-10 are likely but kind of borderline. Hungary and Cyprus could make it but it all depends on the vocals (and it won't help if . The rest are no-hopers as far as I'm concerrned, though I'd like to be wrong about Moldova and Belgium. Semi 2 01 Sweden 02 Serbia 03 Ukraine 04 Turkey --- 05 Norway 06 Slovenia 07 Belarus 08 Estonia -- 09 Bosnia & Herzegovina 10 FYR Macedonia 11 Croatia --- 12 Bulgaria 13 Netherlands --- 14 Malta 15 Portugal 16 Lithuania 17 Slovakia 18 Georgia Again I imagine the top 4 will be pretty close, though I think Turkey will take votes away from Norway (due to the similar rhythms more than anything), but both will be top 5 either way. 6-8 are pretty certain too, I have my doubts about Estonia though, but I think people are underrating a good catchy current song like Belarus, plus it has a few friends to help it out here. Same thing for Malta, apart from the friends, and One Life almost qualified, and this is better tbh. Bulgaria and Netherlands COULD make it, but a lot will depend on the draw, and Joan taking that stupid headdress off, as previously mentioned :lol:
March 19, 201213 yr My first set of predictions: Semi 1 1. Greece 2. Denmark 3. Russia 4. Romania 5. Cyprus 6. Ireland 7. Iceland 8. Israel 9. Austria 10. Moldova ----------------- 11. Belgium 12. Finland 13. Hungary 14. Latvia 15. Albania 16. Switzerland 17. San Marino 18. Montenegro Semi 2 1. Serbia 2. Sweden 3. Ukraine 4. Norway 5. Bosnia & Herzegovina 6. Turkey 7. Portugal 8. Belarus 9. Slovenia 10. Netherlands ----------------------------- 11. Malta 12. Croatia 13. Lithuania 14. Macedonia 15. Bulgaria 16. Georgia 17. Estonia 18. Slovakia I think Russia will top the televote and Denmark the jury in the first semi final 1, but Greece will come out on top overall. Belgium and Finland could sneak into the top 10, but I think Moldova has a very good chance, especially with Spain and Romania voting in this semi. I can't see anyone but Montenegro finishing last. Although I'm sure of a Loreen win, I think Serbia will win this semi by a small margin. Portugal and Slovenia will do well with the juries, not so well on the televotes I think. The 10th spot could go to any one of the Netherlands, Malta or Croatia really, but I think Croatia will be overshadowed by Serbia and Bosnia & Herzegovina. Georgia's bound to pick up some votes despite being awful, so I think Slovakia will end up last.
March 20, 201213 yr Okay here are my first set of (completely inaccurate) positions. Had to have the obligatory "we know all the songs so let's predict the scores" play around. I know we don't know the entry from San Marino yet, but whatever it is they send, I doubt it'll be up to much Greece 114Iceland 105Romania 101Russia 101Moldova 95Denmark 94Cyprus 91Belgium 90Ireland 82Hungary 63Albania 55Finland 54Latvia 53Israel 48Switzerland 35San Marino 14Montenegro 12Austria 11 I see this semi final being quite close towards the top. I might be overestimating Romania slightly, but it's a decent song and they'll score highly from the likes of Moldova, Spain and Greece. I'm fairly confident on the top ten though, but they're probably in the completely wrong order. I think Hungary will just edge it over Albania, Finland and Latvia. In fact Latvia shouldn't be that high with that atrocious song they've sent. Most of the generic ballads are in the other semi final, so I think Belgium will breeze through this. I don't see the grannies doing quite as well as some people are expecting, and I fully hope that the majority of songs qualifying here are the uptempo ones... Sweden 187Bosnia & Herzegovina 128Norway 127Ukraine 88Serbia 79Portugal 76Slovenia 76Netherlands 71Turkey 67Lithuania 59Estonia 51Malta 49Croatia 41Bulgaria 39FYR Macedonia 24Slovakia 20Belarus 18Georgia 18 I'll be very surprised if Sweden don't walk this semi final. I'd say this is the weaker of the two, and overloaded with average ballads. The one that stands out for me is the Bosnian one though, so I think they'll do well, and Norway are also easing through. Again, I'm fairly confident with this top ten too to be honest; the only one that could sneak up there I reckon is Estonia. That's all for now anyway. I'm sure it'll all change over the coming weeks.
March 20, 201213 yr Author Serbia only FIFTH in that semi and behind Bosnia?! You're having a laugh David!
March 20, 201213 yr Montenegro should be a contender for last place in semi-1. They have no allies + the song is very ESC-unfriendly. Serbia should be the Semi2 runaway winner I think, with Turkey second! Lots of friends!
March 20, 201213 yr Now bearing in mind the running order Semi 1 01 Montenegro 02 Iceland 03 Greece 04 Latvia 05 Albania 06 Romania 07 Switzerland 08 Belgium 09 Finland 10 Israel 11 San Marino 12 Cyprus 13 Denmark 14 Russia 15 Hungary 16 Austria 17 Moldova 18 Ireland Semi 2 01 Serbia 02 Macedonia 03 Netherlands 04 Malta 05 Belarus 06 Portugal 07 Ukraine 08 Bulgaria 09 Slovenia 10 Croatia 11 Sweden 12 Georgia 13 Turkey 14 Estonia 15 Slovakia 16 Norway 17 Bosnia & Herzegovina 18 Lithuania I am not sure if it's Lithuania or Bulgaria that is through though. Semi 2 is too tough to call with so many Balkan countries that should in theory vote for each other. Edited March 20, 201213 yr by Caïn
March 20, 201213 yr That Serbian song is far more of a nothing song than Bosnia's is. We're all just getting carried away because he's a relatively "known" name in Eurovision land. Aside from us few Eurovision fans and the Balkan countries, no one's going to have a clue who he is. Average song, that will get lost in a sea of ballads in my opinion. And now he's opening the show as well just before Macedonia, so the show won't really get going until the Netherlands start bopping around.
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