With her 2nd album due out next week, how well do you think it will do in the charts?

I seem to be more optimistic than most over how many she will sell next week - getting on towards 100k is my guess. I suspect 50-60k would be enough for #1, if Muse's 2nd week sales drop as much as Mumford's appear to be.

I think it will go #1 with sells of 60k plus :)

I had a look at what else is out that week, I think Ellie will easily beat closest competitor Walk The Moon and sell around 75-80k.

I seem to be more optimistic than most over how many she will sell next week - getting on towards 100k is my guess. I suspect 50-60k would be enough for #1, if Muse's 2nd week sales drop as much as Mumford's appear to be.

 

There hasn't been any sales data at all so far for Mumford & Sons' 2nd week, so I don't know where you're getting 'as much as Mumford's appear to be' from.

 

Muse will have a massive second week drop and fall back behind Mumford & Sons and it'll be Ellie vs. them for #1. Not sure she'll be able to beat them as I'm sure their sales are still going to be pretty high that week. I've guessed top 3 and 60-80k for Ellie.

 

She'll certainly have no competition for highest new entry anyway - Barbra Streisand got a #1 album fairly recently so she could be top 5/10 but aside from that I see nothing that's likely to do better than low top 20. EDIT: Although on a quick Google Barbra's album is just a compilation of 'rare and unreleased tracks' so probably not even that will be top 10. Maybe Walk The Moon could challenge if Radio 1's support of 'Anna Sun' can translate enough.

Edited October 4, 201212 yr by Bré

I'm saying top 3 and I guess around 50k sold. Lights sold 650k, if she were to sell 100k off the back of that and a fairly-big-but-not-massive single I'd be very surprised. If she misses #1 I'll be gutted.

Will go to #01 with sales of around 60k :]

 

There hasn't been any sales data at all so far for Mumford & Sons' 2nd week, so I don't know where you're getting 'as much as Mumford's appear to be' from.

If I remember correctly the Wednesday mids said they had a 66% sales decline. If that stays stready throughout the whole week they're on for 52k by my calculations, and they should drop another bit next week. I'm more worried about Muse as I have no idea how much they're going to sell.

Muse won't be a threat if she sells over 60k, that would require them to have a gentler decline that Mumford & Sons which I can't see. Of course I'd like to see "The 2nd Law" have a second week at the top, I like Ellie but she's not released anything that's grabbed me for a while.

If I remember correctly the Wednesday mids said they had a 66% sales decline. If that stays stready throughout the whole week they're on for 52k by my calculations, and they should drop another bit next week. I'm more worried about Muse as I have no idea how much they're going to sell.

 

Oh, you're right. My mistake. Ellie probably will get #1 then if that's the case.

 

Although aren't Mumford & Sons doing some performances somewhere next week? That could push their sales back up a bit.

Edited October 4, 201212 yr by Bré

Oh, you're right. My mistake. Ellie probably will get #1 then if that's the case.

 

Although aren't Mumford & Sons doing some performances somewhere next week? That could push their sales back up a bit.

 

But Ellie will surely be doing a lot of promo too...

Edited October 4, 201212 yr by vidcapper

I'm saying top 3 and I guess around 50k sold. Lights sold 650k, if she were to sell 100k off the back of that and a fairly-big-but-not-massive single I'd be very surprised. If she misses #1 I'll be gutted.

 

To be fair though, 19 had only sold 600,000 upon release and 21 had opening sales of 208k.

It should be a safe bet that she won't plummet to #16 on week 2 *this* time, though!

Bump - given that we're just a couple of days from release.