Oh you're right! I'd calculated it as January 1980 rather than January 1981 for inauguration.

 

Even so, the point stands that going OLD AND OLDER for the ticket isn't a winning formula.

And splitting the party in two then not trying to bridge it after a VERY CLOSE and divided primary season is better...

The gap between Hillary and Bernie on delegates now is larger than the gap between Obama and Hillary *ever* was in 2008, so no, it's not 'very close' at all. The party managed to get over Hillary not being the VP then - I'm sure it would be able to deal with a candidate from the progressive wing that wasn't basically on the VERGE OF DEATH getting the VP slot.

Upset win for Sanders in Michigan! >99% chance of Hillary winning there per 538, Nate Silver calling it the biggest upset win in primary history.

 

On the flipside, he was absolutely demolished in Mississippi, barely even viable there, so he'll be even further back in delegates than he was before. But we are now pretty much done with the Deep South Clinton crushings, so maybe I can cling onto the hope that Michigan is a sign of things to come in the next week in other states where Hillary is still leading by a lot? Still a huuuuge longshot don't get me wrong, but it's something positive at least.

 

(I should probably get some sleep now)

Why are you up?

Because they took until 90% reporting to call it. :')

I feel like when you realise you're being kept awake by this man it is time to re-assess your life.

 

(I'm up because I got bored of doing coursework and somehow thought forcing an inappropriate amount of coursework into a two day window would make it more enjoyable).

(I'm up because I got bored of doing coursework and somehow thought forcing an inappropriate amount of coursework into a two day window would make it more enjoyable).

 

I just pretend mine doesn't exist until I have to do that. :(

 

Interesting win for Sanders, I suspect it'll just lead to his supporters hanging on to 'hope' a week or two longer than they would have had it gone the other way but I'm glad for him.

Ha so I was rigt all along!!

 

Pollsters aren't correct still and tje momentum now means he will win the nomination.

Ha so I was rigt all along!!

 

Pollsters aren't correct still and tje momentum now means he will win the nomination.

 

 

Michael can you please stop saying this as if it's fact.

No, it's true, he gained so much momentum last night Hilary pulled further ahead on delegate count thanks to trouncing him in Mississippi.

But there are no more southern states, well except Florida, and the rest are Michigans!! And IF he fires up grassroots and Repubs who want a weaker socialist candidate in Florida and California, overcoming 99% chance against him and a 20 point lead ... it is over.

Edited March 9, 20169 yr by Virginia's Walls

He did incredibly well in Michigan, but even then he didn't get the kind of lead that would even imply he was *tied* with Hillary, let alone winning - a tie nationally would've implied a four point win for Bernie in Michigan. He won by two - and has fallen short of where he'd need to be to be tied nationally in most other states so far.

 

It kind of says everything that his freak results don't even outweigh Hillary's unexpected wins - this Michigan win will be just about what he needed to get 50/50 on delegates. He has missed that target in so many other places that he's way off it.

 

Also, the Republican race is kind of a bit too contested for Republicans to casually go over to the Democratic primaries.

Falling short by two in a state Hillary was expected to win by a lot proves the momentum!!

Falling short by two in a state Hillary was expected to win by a lot proves the momentum!!

He's starting to run out of states for his 'momentum!!!' to build up into wins big enough to outweigh everywhere he's fallen short on delegates so far.

All he needs to do is repeat it in California and Florida and the other states are all in his demographics.

 

No, because he'd need to be winning *big* in those states. Not just doing what he's doing now of getting respectable delegate leads in states he wins (when he needs *big* delegate leads in those states) and tying on delegates in his shock good performance states (which are states he needs to be winning and getting respectable delegate leads in). He's been trounced in so many states so far that he needs to be outperforming what were already really difficult delegate targets. One or two big states will not make the difference. He needs to be winning essentially every state from hereon out with a pretty solid lead in each.

When the delegate count between them is around 200 at maximum, then they would.

Yes, which is why it doesn't help if you're only getting a net gain of 20 delegates in a big state - hence why I say he needs big wins.

But considering he might win most if not all the next 20 states as the momentum + the demographics favour him ..