April 27, 201312 yr Semi Two Revised Prediction 01 Norway 137 02 Georgia 120 03 Greece 101 04 Azerbaijan 93 05 Albania 81 06 Israel 78 07 Bulgaria 74 08 Finland 71 09 Iceland 67 10 Malta 62 --- 11 Romania 61 12 San Marino 60 13 Armenia 54 14 Latvia 36 15 Switzerland 24 16 Hungary 17 17 Macedonia 12 Romania and San Marino will both miss out because the change in the voting system means that any drastic imbalance in the Jury-Public voting is going to really limit their chance (Romania will do really well on the televote but the Jury won't go for this at all, the same with San Marino but in reverse). That said, I wouldn't rule out Malta failing in exchange for one of them. Albania will hoover up any of the rock vote that Armenia would have hoped to get plus it's got a lot of friends in this semi so that's through pretty easily.
April 27, 201312 yr I wouldn't rule out Switzerland so quickly, but other than that those predictions look pretty reasonable.
April 27, 201312 yr SEMI I 01 · 161 · Denmark 02 · 125 · Ukraine 03 · 119 · Netherlands 04 · 099 · Russia 05 · 087 · Lithuania 06 · 081 · Ireland 07 · 070 · Montenegro 08 · 061 · Austria 09 · 058 · Belgium 10 · 050 · Belarus 11 · 049 · Serbia 12 · 044 · Croatia 13 · 037 · Slovenia 14 · 025 · Estonia 15 · 019 · Moldova 16 · 017 · Cyprus SEMI II 01 · 141 · Norway 02 · 131 · Greece 03 · 128 · Bulgaria 04 · 086 · Malta 05 · 067 · Azerbaijan 06 · 063 · Georgia 07 · 061 · Finland [16 votes] 08 · 061 · Israel [15 votes] 09 · 061 · Switzerland [12 votes] 10 · 061 · Iceland [10 votes] 11 · 054 · San Marino 12 · 051 · Armenia 13 · 050 · Macedonia 14 · 044 · Hungary 15 · 039 · Albania 16 · 033 · Latvia 17 · 029 · Romania FINAL 01 · 222 · Norway 02 · 218 · Denmark 03 · 214 · Ukraine 04 · 149 · Bulgaria 05 · 132 · Germany 06 · 123 · Russia 07 · 121 · Netherlands 08 · 119 · Sweden 09 · 107 · Georgia 10 · 102 · Malta 11 · 095 · Greece 12 · 092 · Lithuania 13 · 088 · Montenegro 14 · 082 · Italy 15 · 067 · Belarus 16 · 055 · Ireland 17 · 050 · UK 18 · 042 · Iceland 19 · 042 · Azerbaijan 20 · 029 · Belgium 21 · 029 · Israel 22 · 025 · Finland 23 · 021 · Austria 24 · 018 · France 25 · 018 · Switzerland 26 · 002 · Spain In retrospect, I'm not exactly sure how Bulgaria ended up doing so well.
April 28, 201312 yr Do people really think San Marino won't qualify? I think it's this years wild card... I wouldn't even rule out a top five finish on the final night!
April 28, 201312 yr When has the dated gay favourite with zero commercial potential ever finished top five? Nah, 22nd with a bullet if it qualifies, and going through this every year is getting boring - the likes of What About My Dreams never do well, yet without fail every year there are a few in here who insist they'll do really well...
April 28, 201312 yr Predict : Q1 : Denmark, Ukraine, Russia, Netherlands, Moldova, Belgium, Serbia, Ireland, Lithuania, Croatia Q2 : Norway, Azerbaijan, San Marino, Iceland, Switzerland, Georgia, Israel, Hungary, Malta, Latvia Think, that Montenegro will die on the last place.
April 28, 201312 yr Semi One 01 Denmark 02 Ukraine 03 Russia 04 Netherlands 05 Estonia 06 Moldova 07 Lithuania 08 Serbia 09 Ireland 10 Belarus --- 11 Croatia 12 Montenegro 13 Austria 14 Slovenia 15 Belgium 16 Cyprus Croatia might make it in over Belarus but I don't expect to see any of 12-16 in the final... Semi Two 01 Norway 02 Greece 03 Georgia 04 Azerbaijan 05 Albania 06 Bulgaria 07 San Marino 08 Iceland 09 Malta 10 Finland --- 11 Armenia 12 Israel 13 Hungary 14 Romania 15 Macedonia 16 Latvia 17 Switzerland Armenia and Israel could quite easily sneak in... Final 01 Denmark 02 Ukraine 03 Norway 04 Russia 05 Georgia 06 Germany 07 Netherlands 08 Azerbaijan 09 Sweden 10 Greece 11 Bulgaria 12 Italy 13 United Kingdom 14 Estonia 15 Moldova 16 Albania 17 San Marino 18 Lithuania 19 Serbia 20 Ireland 21 Malta 22 Finland 23 Iceland 24 France 25 Belarus 26 Spain Georgia are the only country with a chance to sneak their first win this year, but I reckon it will be really tight at the top between Ukraine, Denmark and Norway with no runaway winner and Denmark probably living up to their odds but maybe less than 10 points between them and Ukraine/Norway. I don't particularly get the 'winner vibes' from Denmark, in fact the only song that gives me that is Norway but I can't *quite* see the latter pulling it off, it's maybe a little too leftfield to storm the contest.
April 28, 201312 yr If Estonia does go through there's no way they'll be as high as 5th in the Semi Final! It's nice but it's completely forgettable.
April 28, 201312 yr I'll probably get this all wrong but I'm hoping Slovenia jusssst about qualify (so long as she doesn't miss the notes and those dancers are shit hot! Wind Machine on max power will help also) First Semi-Final 01 Denmark 02 Ukraine 03 Russia 04 Serbia 05 Netherlands 06 Belarus 07 Ireland 08 Moldova 09 Estonia 10 Slovenia Second Semi-Final 01 Norway 02 Greece 03 San Marino (really!) 04 Georgia 05 Israel 06 Azerbaijan 07 Switzerland 08 Finland 09 Malta 10 Bulgaria
April 28, 201312 yr Think, that Montenegro will die on the last place. I don't know...it's been a pretty big hit in the Balkans from what I've heard, and it is in the Balkan-dominated semi.
April 28, 201312 yr SEMI I 01 · 161 · Denmark 02 · 125 · Ukraine 03 · 119 · Netherlands 04 · 099 · Russia 05 · 087 · Lithuania 06 · 081 · Ireland 07 · 070 · Montenegro 08 · 061 · Austria 09 · 058 · Belgium 10 · 050 · Belarus 11 · 049 · Serbia 12 · 044 · Croatia 13 · 037 · Slovenia 14 · 025 · Estonia 15 · 019 · Moldova 16 · 017 · Cyprus SEMI II 01 · 141 · Norway 02 · 131 · Greece 03 · 128 · Bulgaria 04 · 086 · Malta 05 · 067 · Azerbaijan 06 · 063 · Georgia 07 · 061 · Finland [16 votes] 08 · 061 · Israel [15 votes] 09 · 061 · Switzerland [12 votes] 10 · 061 · Iceland [10 votes] 11 · 054 · San Marino 12 · 051 · Armenia 13 · 050 · Macedonia 14 · 044 · Hungary 15 · 039 · Albania 16 · 033 · Latvia 17 · 029 · Romania Out of these, the only ones I'd really rule totally out of contention from qualifying would be Latvia and Cyprus. It's so wide open this year. I think it's pretty unlikely Armenia, Albania, Estonia, Hungary, Macedonia, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia will qualify (and how Moldova does depends totally on which ballads in that saturated semi qualify), but I could easily see scenarios under which they shock. I'd probably split it as follows: SEMI I DEFINITES Denmark Netherlands Ukraine LIKELY Ireland Montenegro Russia (very likely) EITHER WAY Austria Belarus Belgium Lithuania Moldova Serbia Slovenia UNLIKELY Croatia Estonia DEAD ON ARRIVAL Cyprus SEMI II DEFINITES Azerbaijan Georgia Greece Malta Norway LIKELY Bulgaria Finland Israel EITHER WAY Albania Armenia Iceland San Marino Switzerland UNLIKELY Hungary Macedonia Romania DEAD ON ARRIVAL Latvia
May 4, 201312 yr Some moderate changes to my original predictions, mainly Romania replacing Hungary and some order shuffling of the qualifiers in SF2, but these are my final predictions for the semi finals: Semi Final 1: 01 Denmark 02 Russia 03 Ukraine 04 Belarus 05 Netherlands 06 Moldova 07 Lithuania 08 Croatia 09 Serbia 10 Belgium 11 Austria 12 Slovenia 13 Estonia 14 Montenegro 15 Ireland 16 Cyprus Semi Final 2: 01 Georgia 02 Norway 03 Greece 04 Azerbaijan 05 Albania 06 Israel 07 Iceland 08 Bulgaria 09 Malta 10 Romania 11 Hungary 12 Switzerland 13 Finland 14 San Marino 15 FYR Macedonia 16 Armenia 17 Latvia
May 6, 201312 yr Semi-Final 1 01. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark | Emmelie de Forest - Only Teardrops 02. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine | Zlata Ognevich - Gravity 03. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia | Dina Garipova - What If 04. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova | Aliona Moon - O Mie 05. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia | Moje 3 - Ljubav Je Svuda 06. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands | Anouk - Birds 07. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria | Natália Kelly - Shine 08. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia | Birgit - Et Uus Saaks Alguse 09. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Croatia.png Croatia | Klapa s mora - Mižerja 10. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland | Ryan Dolan - Only Love Survives 11. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus | Alyona Lanskaya - Solayoh 12. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Slovenia.png Slovenia | Hannah - Straight Into Love 13. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Montenegro.png Montenegro | Who See - Igranka 14. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus | Despina Olympiou - An Me Thimasai 15. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania | Andrius Pojavis - Something 16. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium | Roberto Bellarosa - Love Kills Denmark will win it with Ukraine behind but not so far away in their points total. Russia is a dead cert for Top 3 and Moldova will provide the midtable "basic ballad" (see Malta 2009, Portugal 2010, Slovenia 2011 and Bosnia 2012). Serbia will be aided to the Top 5 by their diaspora and The Netherlands will score a Top10 although less than the result we expect for them (Estonia 2011, Iceland 2012). Austria and Estonia have two other basic ballads that will somewhat please juries and televoters alike while Croatia will just make it through after causing a forgetable "Aww moment" on screen (Lithuania 2009, Belarus 2010 or Latvia 2007). Ireland will make it being the only high quality uptempo left in the game aided by an impactful performance. Belarus will almost make it but it's too outdated to set the scoreboard alight, Slovenia will be very off-putting but teen-vote grabbing, Montenegro will score higher than expected due to its "altenative" status, Cyprus has the uninteresting clichéd balland (and dare I predict, staging), while Lithuania will just make it better than last due to it's voting power and Belgium's lack of it (not to mention Love Kills will be trounced being performed between superior uptempos from Ireland and Serbia). Semi-Final 2 01. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia | Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani - Waterfall 02. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway | Margaret Berger - I Feed You My Love 03. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan | Farid Mammadov - Hold Me 04. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel | Moran Mazor - Rak Bishvilo 05. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece | Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis - Alcohol Is Free 06. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland | Krista Siegfrids - Marry Me 07. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland | Takasa - You And Me 08. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania | Cezar - It's My Life 09. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta | Gianluca - Tomorrow 10. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland | Eythor Ingi - Ég Á Líf 11. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bulgaria.png Bulgaria | Elitsa Todorova & Stoyan Yankulov - Samo Shampioni 12. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia | Dorians - Lonely Planet 13. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino | Valentina Monetta - Crisalide (Vola) 14. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary | ByeAlex - Kedvesem (Zoohacker Remix) 15. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia | Esma & Lozano - Pred Da Se Razdeni 16. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania | Adrian Lulgjuraj & Bledar Sejko - Identitet 17. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia | PeR - Here We Go I have Georgia as the darkhorse of this year's competiton. It's somewhat of a favourite but it will work really well on the screen with a powerful staging à lá Denmark 2010. Norway will just edge over Azerbaijan and Israel will have the credible midtable ballad. Greece and Finland figure next providing the fun factor while Switzerland will just edge over Romania's more-than-memorable mess. Next up is a toss over for the last three spots. Malta has the summer singalong theme down to a T, Iceland will provide authenticity and Bulgaria will have the quirkiest number. I predict Bulgaria to fall because in 2007 they had a "WTF? This is great!" moment but this year they're returning with a "WTF? This is crap!" moment. Armenia will once again fall under the radar (with an entry not too dissimilar from their 2011 DNQ collegues Turkey), San Marino will perform nicely but will fall under the voting radar (Switzerland 2008, Croatia 2010, Slovakia 2011, Portugal 2012) and Hungary will give us the "authentic alternative number" no one votes for (Slovenia 2009, Estonia 2010, Belarus 2012). Macedonia can go either way in the DNQ table but I'm predicting a lower position due to their lack of chemistry and awkwardness in recent performances while Albania and its off-putting number will escape a last place finish thanks to yet another less-than-poor Latvian number. Final 01. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark | Emmelie de Forest - Only Teardrops 02. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia | Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani - Waterfall 03. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan | Farid Mammadov - Hold Me 04. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine | Zlata Ognevich - Gravity 05. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany | Cascada - Glorious 06. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway | Margaret Berger - I Feed You My Love 07. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia | Dina Garipova - What If 08. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden | Robin Stjernberg - You 09. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands | Anouk - Birds 10. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy | Marco Mengoni - L'Essenziale 11. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece | Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis - Alcohol Is Free 12. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/France.png France | Amandine Bourgeois - L'enfer Et Moi 13. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel | Moran Mazor - Rak Bishvilo 14. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom | Bonnie Tyler - Believe In Me 15. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova | Aliona Moon - O Mie 16. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland | Krista Siegfrids - Marry Me 17. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria | Natália Kelly - Shine 18. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain | El Sueño Del Morfeo - Contigo Hasta El Final 19. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia | Moje 3 - Ljubav Je Svuda 20. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania | Cezar - It's My Life 21. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland | Takasa - You And Me 22. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia | Birgit - Et Uus Saaks Alguse 23. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta | Gianluca - Tomorrow 24. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland | Eythor Ingi - Ég Á Líf 25. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Croatia.png Croatia | Klapa s mora - Mižerja 26. http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland | Ryan Dolan - Only Love Survives This is obviously pure speculation, the draw will influence greatly the outcome but I can see this happening. Especially the French number scoring highly with the juries, potentially even swapping places with Italy in the Top10. It has an Italy 2011 aura to it for me and I can see it running up the scoreboard like Gualazzi did although a second place finish is highly improbable. Bonnie Tyler will perform better than the UK expects but it's no Top10 material while Spain will have yet another poor showing. Germany will score the highest out of the Big 5 but it's very touch and go depending on it's performance and running order position. If performed as a closing or near to close number it'll score high as it's an "arms in the air" kind of song, if performed in the first positions will be forgotten by the end of the show. As for the rest of the Top 5, Ukraine will be aided by another "sand artist moment" while Azerbaijan and Georgia battle it out for "ballad and performance of the year" but they'd just lose it to "Only Teardrops" and it's voting grabbing effective performance with traces of a neighbouring fairytale.
May 6, 201312 yr Slovenia 2011 was SO MUCH MORE than a basic bitch ballad :angry: Unfortunately that's how it came across on screen.
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