Posted February 14, 201411 yr I know it is very very early to start looking at the odds for who the bookmakers think will win this year's Eurovision Song Contest, but the current odds from Betfair possibly give us a very small indication of where the current hype is which is, in some cases, likely to be based on what is in countries' national selections - for example Latvia which you can see below. So here is the top 10 of Betfair's latest decimal odds (as Betfair's fractional odds are currently quite difficult to compare as they are 32/5 and 54/5 for example): 01. 07.8 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden 02. 10.5 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany 03. 11.4 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia 04. 11.9 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain 05. 15.3 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia 06. 15.7 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan 07. 15.7 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia 08. 15.7 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine 09. 17.1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia 10. 17.6 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece, http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary, http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy Other countries with entries selected: 16. 22.0 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta 33. 34.0 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania 35. 48.0 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland 36. 62.0 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland 37. 81.0 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus Looks like there definitely is hype in Latvia even if I do think it's being overrated at the moment! :kink: Interestingly the potential entries in Spain seem to be considered as potential favourites. I assume the "hype" for Spain is due to Brequette's entry as that seems to be the one everyone is talking about.
March 4, 201411 yr Author Betfred have now started their odds for this year's contest and here are the current top 10! 01. 3/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway 02. 7/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania 03. 7/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden 04. 8/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan 05. 8/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary 06. 8/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom 07. 14/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany 08. 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark 09. 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia 10. 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine
March 4, 201411 yr Quite weird to have Norway topping the odds when it hasn't been chosen. Are we just going Sweden-Denmark-Norway or is there a hot favourite? Great to see us nearly top 5 anyway!
March 4, 201411 yr Norway's favourite to win (Carl Espen) is strong, but certainly not a Eurovision winner. Miracle is much weaker than Playing With Fire too and would be an incredibly plain and generic winner, I don't see how it's a big contender.
March 4, 201411 yr Miracle is much weaker than Playing With Fire too and would be an incredibly plain and generic winner, I don't see how it's a big contender. I agree (not necessarily that it's weaker but with the rest), I'd be pretty surprised if it did as well as or better than 'Playing With Fire'. It wouldn't sit well among the last few winners (Running Scared aside). 'Undo' doesn't strike me as a Eurovision winner either. Top 10 sure, top 5 even, but when it comes to winners these days I'm listening out for something which could go top 40 in the UK off the back of the contest and I don't get that vibe from Sanna. :unsure: Azerbaijan is definitely the one I'm waiting to hear before declaring anything else a winner.
March 4, 201411 yr I actually think if anything picked so far is going to win, it'll be Hungary. That said, yes, Azerbaijan and Russia both seem pretty desperate to win this year so I'm expecting something calculated and cynical from both of them.
March 4, 201411 yr After snatching all Top 5 positions in the scoreboard in the last 5 years (which was ridiculously lucky) there's no way they aren't going to apply the same formula and not send a contender. Same with Russia internally choosing their song. So far I only see UK winning this. Like people are saying, Romanian song is much much weaker and Carl Espen will need something extra to win over the crowd. omg if Norway choose him and Sweden choose Sanna then it's really going to be Mellow-difestivalen in May! At least we know Denmark won't go for a mature ballad.
March 14, 201411 yr Author Here is a quick odds update from Betfred: (the arrows refer to the country's previous position in the odds) 01. 13/8 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway 02. 5/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden 03. 6/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia 04. 7/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary 05= 8/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan 05= 8/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom 07. 12/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania 08= 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium 08= 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany 08= 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia 08= 16/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine 12. 20/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark 13. 28/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain 14= 33/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria 14= 33/1 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland (I'm not sure what the previous positions of the bottom 3 were but I have presumed they have fallen due to the entry of Belgium)
March 14, 201411 yr Author It really is shocking Norway have such low odds already. Obviously people are assuming 'Silent Storm' gets selected but even then I don't think it's such a runaway winner. At least I hope not, it's a really nice song but I wouldn't want it to win.
March 14, 201411 yr I can't see how Silent Storm would win Eurovision, it's not instant enough and certainly not a hit single. It sounds like a respectable high-brow mid-low top ten finisher to me. Then again, I didn't think that Only Teardrops would win last year when it flew straight to the top of the odds quickly. So I guess I should respect the bookies, they generally know what they're talking about (aside from Sognu :lol:) It's a shame that the UK are 'only' 6th. I know it's WAY better than we usually get but the song is in a different league to almost everything else imo. I'm sure if Azerbaijan were sending Children Of The Universe, the contest would already be over! I'm not one to advocate the political voting argument at all but Azerbaijan are the one exception of a country who with a merely half decent song can guarantee a top five. If they send a great song then they'll trample the competition.
March 14, 201411 yr Well I don't really think it's politics that's been getting Azerbaijan all those votes, especially after last year's revelations...hell, the guaranteed 12 from Malta every year's been enough to give it away. Silent Storm's the obvious favourite as it's the one that stands above everything else so far this year. It's not the kind of thing that'd be a favourite in most years, but in a year like this an excellent stripped back ballad that'll stand out from everything else could easily be enough to take it all home. (I don't think it'll win though, especially now we have Undo too. I think it's Azerbaijan's to take home at this stage.)
March 14, 201411 yr 2011 had a lot of amazing songs (No One, Popular, What About My Dreams, Rockerfeller Street, Caroban, Taken By A Stranger, The Secret Is Love etc.) but none of them really sounded like winners except Popular, which at the time I thought would storm it. I agree with Rich, much like Ell & Niki I'd imagine Azerbaijan will probably walk it if the song is even half decent in a year with few contenders, I mean Hold You made top 2 last year and I honestly can't remember how it goes offhand! Especially if they fix for votes again :lol: The songs that sound most like potential winners at this stage would be Children Of The Universe and Undo for me but I get the feeling they won't win if that makes sense.
March 14, 201411 yr This year's really similar to 2011. Mostly made up of eh 6/10 entries, a couple of great songs but barely any I go wild for. This year I have Undo, Same Heart and Slavic Girls. And even that doesn't begin to touch Popular/What About My Dreams/I Love Belarus/Ding Dong/No One. Then again that year I started off thinking Running Scared would win when I first heard it, before getting swept up in the Sognu hype - those odds were so low I thought it was nailed on!
March 14, 201411 yr I'm 100% in aggreement with the Sognu comparisons with Silent Storm. Also, it's always worth remembering that the only people who bet on Eurovision before April are people who follow/enjoy the contest anyway (hence how 'Vola' got up to about 5th favourite last year because of the fan money) rather than any kind of all-seeing, all-knowing group of experts. So don't put all your faith in the odds right now. Also, If I may be allowed to delve into the conspiracy theories, here they are *puts on crazy hat* a) If the EBU want more countries back for the contest next year, given how few could afford to stay in Malmo/Copenhagen you can kiss Slovenia/Greece ect goodbye if they have to stay in Oslo again b) Next year is the 60th anniversary contest, I'd wager the EBU wouldn't want the press for the 60th edition being dominated by Baku again after 2012. So I'd worry about the potential for Azerbaijan being 'sabotaged' if they're the only worthy winner. *removes crazy hat* Calling the Malta/UK/Hungary top 3 NOW *.*
March 14, 201411 yr Silent Storm is wonderful but winner... no. I don't think it could have enough of a moment performance (+lack of instancy) to capture the breadth needed for a winner. At this point I'd only really call it between the UK and Sweden. Azerbaijan if they put out but if the EBU manages to crack down on the vote fixing it won't be so easy for them anymore. a) If the EBU want more countries back for the contest next year, given how few could afford to stay in Malmo/Copenhagen you can kiss Slovenia/Greece ect goodbye if they have to stay in Oslo again b) Next year is the 60th anniversary contest, I'd wager the EBU wouldn't want the press for the 60th edition being dominated by Baku again after 2012. So I'd worry about the potential for Azerbaijan being 'sabotaged' if they're the only worthy winner. a) What would be the alternative? We won't be heading anywhere down south this year I can't imagine (yes, your point is that Scandinavia is too expensive but I can't imagine the UK would be much better). And really, politically... Russia or Azerbaijan winning would be far worse, it'd just re-emphasize to the unsuccessful nations that the Former Soviets are 'buying the contest' and if Azerbaijan can arm-fart their way into the top 5 every year, what is the point of Slovenia and their ilk trying anymore? What needs to happen for Eastern Europe to get back on side I think should be a song that is similar to what they could send themselves doing very well, culturally at least. Which is why I'm pinning all my hopes on Slavic Girls to do as well as humanly possible.
March 14, 201411 yr Azerbaijan know how to play the contest perfectly I guess. They do have an advantage of lots of diaspora and friends blah blah...and obviously the whole vote-gate. But aside from that, they easily delivered the most jaw-dropping visual performance last year, and I guess some voters, even though it's a SONG contest, will think 'oh yeah, the box mirror dancer, he deserves a vote'. Azerbaijan seem to take full advantage of every possible trick in the book to win votes, to detract from the fact that actually, their entries are usually incredibly mediocre.
March 14, 201411 yr Author I actually think all of Azerbaijan's songs have been deserving of top 10s, including 'Hold Me' when you combine it with the fantastic performance (even though maybe 2nd was a bit too high, but still very much deserving of a top 10 finish) and 'Day After Day' was also a very interesting and deserving of a top 10 finish for me!
March 14, 201411 yr I actually think all of Azerbaijan's songs have been deserving of top 10s, including 'Hold Me' when you combine it with the fantastic performance and 'Day After Day' was also a very interesting and deserving of a top 10 finish for me! I thought that Day After Day was absolutely woeful, seriously horrible to listen to. At least Hold Me is pedestrian enough to pleasantly seep through one ear and out the other I guess. I find it so ironic that their best entry by a mile, Drip Drop, finished lower than some of their other non-songs :lol:
March 14, 201411 yr Author Admittedly I haven't listened to 'Day After Day' for ages, but I always remember the performance and that must have been the case with many viewers too. I can't remember many other performances from 2008 without re-watching them.
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