Just a question, why isn't every country included?

 

I didn't think it was worth copying out all 37 when any countries outside the top 15 (and therefore having longer odds than 66/1) would all be considered outsiders with no chance of winning. Whereas it is easier to focus just on the movements in the top 15 as that is where the winner is nearly guaranteed to come from. You can always visit Oddschecker.com for the full odds.

I agree about Undo - I'm like 90% certain it won't miss the top 10 but equally certain it won't win. I just cannot predict this year's winner, it could feasibly be any of Norway, Armenia, Denmark, Hungary or maybe even Ukraine imo. None of those really sound like winners to me but not many tracks do this year...

I'm still think Armenia is the most likely not just because of its odds but it does have a winner's sound which I thought from the day it was released (although not such a runaway winner that the odds are suggesting). But Ukraine is definitely a possibility with a good draw along with the rest you mention and I wouldn't rule out Greece as it will stand out a lot and come across great in the arena in my opinion. I still believe Malta could be a surprise outsider to do very well too however their semi-final draw has made me less confident that it will even qualify, but if it is to do well then it should get through the semi-final easily anyway. All of the top 10 favourites have a decent chance (probably with the exception of Belgium, Sweden (I know I keep going on about Sweden not doing as well as predicted) and maybe Romania) though!

I going to be so pissed off when the UK doesn't win.

I just hope Molly doesn't get a first half draw! Although hopefully the producers would put the UK on between 11th and 13th anyway which wouldn't be too bad :kink:

There is zero chance Undo will miss the top ten. Even outside of the fact that it's one of the slickest and most immediately effective entries of the last few years (let's face it, if What If could go top five last year off being little more than a well sung X Factor winners' ballad then what on earth would stop this?), it's in a field that has very few obviously universal tracks. Given how much power the juries have now they can order tracks, are there really going to be many that don't have her top ten? She's got top three in the jury vote totally nailed down to be honest, even if from nothing other than that she'll almost certainly be consistent across a lot of their votes. You only have to look at the averages last year to see how powerful that can be.

Hell, in a year like this I wouldn't even rule out Sanna from winning. In terms of immediately memorable and universal choruses, only Hungary and perhaps Molly rival. For that same reason I'm near certain Armenia won't win. When was the last time a song that didn't even have a proper chorus won? Certainly not in the televoting age.

 

(Wait, Ruslana. Still, that had basically won after the FIRST TEN SECONDS.)

I also think that Sanna is being underpredicted on here. Maybe it's the loon glasses on but it's one of the best produced and instantly melodic songs in the competition, sung by a vocalist who never fails to deliver. I'm not saying she'll win but I'm sure she's not going to underachieve in such a low quality year. I don't get the basis that Sanna is being flat out ruled out of winning, Undo has everything going for it apart from a great draw.

 

Funny how if Sweden had opted for Ace Wilder though, she'd have pretty much landslided the contest again for them :lol:

 

The perfect top two would be Molly and Sanna, the songs are just MILES ahead of everything else for me this year. But I'm half resigning myself to another 2011 style nightmare with a dire top two and all of my favourites finishing mid-table (although repeat the Sweden top three and I can just about live with it).

I just read this rather good piece on why Armenia (and others) won't win

 

http://sofabet.com/2014/03/27/eurovision-2...the-contenders/

(take with anywhere between a pinch and a spoonfull of salt, obviously)

I also think that Sanna is being underpredicted on here. Maybe it's the loon glasses on but it's one of the best produced and instantly melodic songs in the competition, sung by a vocalist who never fails to deliver. I'm not saying she'll win but I'm sure she's not going to underachieve in such a low quality year. I don't get the basis that Sanna is being flat out ruled out of winning, Undo has everything going for it apart from a great draw.

 

Funny how if Sweden had opted for Ace Wilder though, she'd have pretty much landslided the contest again for them :lol:

 

The perfect top two would be Molly and Sanna, the songs are just MILES ahead of everything else for me this year. But I'm half resigning myself to another 2011 style nightmare with a dire top two and all of my favourites finishing mid-table (although repeat the Sweden top three and I can just about live with it).

I hope you're right because I agree Undo really does deserve to win, pessimistic me just doesn't see it happening though :(

I would be really surprised if Armenia won, for exactly the same reasons as Tirren, I really think a lot of its hype has been self-engineered by Armenians who think they have a shot at doing well after a few years in the wilderness because they have a solid song. I think the contenders should be Sweden, Hungary and the UK right now, maybe Norway too, and I'd call Hungary as my main tip really, it's the only cool modern pop song there and I can't see it turning off anybody.

The one thing I will never get though is how Armenia are the clear favourites. He seems quite unlikeable, the song is quite menacing and the first minute and a half of it are completely nothingy (although I like the second half, but still - his voice is a bit growly). It's not high in fan polls, he's had bad press and perhaps the only thing the hype is based on is the high Youtube video count. I swear if Not Alone had been sent to the 2009 contest it might actually have failed to qualify!

 

The UK have the most anthemic song in the contest I think, but do viewers go for 'we love the world' anthemic type hooks anymore. It does feel like Love Shine A Light recreated by a hipster :lol:

Also that article turned me off as soon as he started criticising Sanna's lyrical content and praising Azerbaijan's structure, as may be, but in terms of instantness there's no contest either, and I know which one is better for a contender trying to appeal to televoters. I can't see Start A Fire (legitimately) connecting with many at all.

 

Some very good points on Armenia, UK and Norway at least though.

Same, and I don't like how Sweden is always presumed to be high in fan polls because it's a 'fanwank'. A lot of us have followed and loved Sanna for years and believe Undo to be a great song. Pretty sure Las Vegas wasn't high in the polls, and if the likes of Thorsten Flinck or some of the other horrors that have made it to the MF finals ended up winning the same would apply. They don't immediately become everybody's favourite just because of their past reputation. Sweden pick a high quality pop song to represent them every year and that's what Eurovision fans live for, what's the surprise?

Like Ryan, I wouldn't rule out Malta pulling a surprise victory, especially if they work with the same emotional pull of the preview video. That and the pattern in recent years seems to go North West Europe - North West Europe - small country that has never won before (only one of these points is 100% serious).

I agree with Eyes that 'Undo' is more instant than 'Start A Fire', but I also agree with the view that 'Start A Fire' is much more interesting structurally whereas 'Undo' has the typical pop song structure. Obviously this is an advantage for 'Undo' in the contest but outside of the contest the more interesting structure in 'Start A Fire' definitely gives it more replay value for me and I love Dilara's quite unique vocal tone. Nevertheless, I'm sure the staging for 'Start A Fire' will be fantastic as it always is for Azerbaijan entries and it's definitely a top 5 contender for me. Please don't think I dislike 'Undo', it is still one of my favourites (I think it was just outside my top 10 on my most recent ranking), but unlike gooddelta, I think it is being overpredicted on here but I'm going to stop repeating myself now as I'm sure you all know my opinion now. :kink:

The OTHER reason Armenia won't win is because some old PHOBE muttering YOU'RE NOT ALONE to themselves for two minutes is NOT A WINNING FORMULA, no matter HOW MUCH you pack out the last minute with dubstep dramatics.

 

(I feel I should also add to that article that the author eurovicious's antipathy towards Melodifestivalen is fairly well known within the comment community, so that he doesn't think much of Undo or this year's final isn't surprising. He's one of those lot who's all 'So who else is watching the LITHUANIAN THIRD HEAT' when everyone else is losing their shit over heat one of MF.)

I agree with gooddelta's earlier comment though that Ace Wilder would have definitely been a very clear favourite for the win, it would've definitely stood out amongst the rest of the entries!

 

Also, by the looks of it, Sanna will be the favourite in a couple of weeks as Armenia's odds continue to drift and Sweden's continue to shorten!

I agree with gooddelta's earlier comment though that Ace Wilder would have definitely been a very clear favourite for the win, it would've definitely stood out amongst the rest of the entries!

 

I hope that'll get a normal push later in the year, and if it DID then it would oddly be more likely to get Radio 1 on board as they could just brush the Eurovision connection under the carpet. And I see she's on Warner so if it was a big enough hit it could even make it onto the next edition of Top Hits *.*