It is, it just wouldn't have stopped most recent winners from winning. I think Eric might have won in 2011 if he'd picked the other ball and gone 21st, as he'd have stood out far more at the end than he did amidst the pop madness from Hungary to Blue that year.

 

Let's not be literal. Running order is not really a reason for a song's failure or success like Ryan says Australia has zero chance of winning now by performing in the first half.

 

http://31.media.tumblr.com/94c14ca396f65bd5d67478145269333c/tumblr_nkjy99xSsZ1qcluu2o1_500.gif

I still don't see Italy as a contender at all. Top 10 yes most likely but I can't see televotes flooding in for it. An opera influenced song not in English with a not very memorable staging. I really don't understand why it's a favourite.

 

On this point, yes it's not in English, but I think the message is quite clear whatever language it's in and it's possibly the most accessible message for a pop song of all. I don't think it's going to win at this stage but I'd be surprised if it's not in the mix and it'll probably do better than most other popera entries have done in the past.

Let's not be literal. Running order is not really a reason for a song's failure or success like Ryan says Australia has zero chance of winning now by performing in the first half.

 

http://31.media.tumblr.com/94c14ca396f65bd5d67478145269333c/tumblr_nkjy99xSsZ1qcluu2o1_500.gif

It's not to the degree that it takes a song with a big chance of winning to becoming a no-hoper, but Drip Drop probably did get totally killed by being drawn 1st, whereas beforehand I'd have expected it to be wayy more competitive with Satellite. Given how skewed the points averages are towards the latter half I think it totally is a reason for a song's failure or success, it's just not the be all and end all.

On this point, yes it's not in English, but I think the message is quite clear whatever language it's in and it's possibly the most accessible message for a pop song of all. I don't think it's going to win at this stage but I'd be surprised if it's not in the mix and it'll probably do better than most other popera entries have done in the past.

What's the message exactly other than someone guessing it involves love?

It's not to the degree that it takes a song with a big chance of winning to becoming a no-hoper, but Drip Drop probably did get totally killed by being drawn 1st, whereas beforehand I'd have expected it to be wayy more competitive with Satellite. Given how skewed the points averages are towards the latter half I think it totally is a reason for a song's failure or success, it's just not the be all and end all.

 

Drip Drop got killed by its own staging if you ask me. [The song is no good either but I'm alone in that one]

 

Glad we can agree then.

I did say "nearly zero" as of course Australia don't have no chance at all but it has been made much much more unlikely now, the comparison to 'Popular' is the type of thing I'm getting at.

 

But in close contests, running order can have a significant effect and it has been proven by many statisticians. We haven't had a closely run contest except in 2011 and like Tirren says, swap Azerbaijan and Sweden in the running order and their positions could have also swapped - it would have been much much closer anyway. If Sweden draw first half then that will of course increase Australia's chances again, but increase Russia's chances even further.

 

Maybe it was an overreaction when I said Australia's chance of winning has gone, but it's definitely not going to help them.

 

On the topic of Italy, it's much more accessible than 'Sognu' was and I'm pretty sure it'll be top 5 now with that second half draw. The staging does let it down from being a certain winner but I agree with Iz that it is surely in the mix with Russia and Sweden.

[The song is no good either but I'm alone in that one]

BLASPHEMY!

And please Italy was dead on arrival. It's not 1992 anymore. The Bitter Old Lady Brigade™ put them high up like they did to Amaury Vasilli, that's the only reason they're still favourites.

Mind you, it's set to do better than that French thing but I can't see them bettering Marco Mengoni's result.

I don't think we're opening, I see Electro Velvet going somewhere like 7th/8th to break up a run of slow songs (say, between France and Estonia).

Australia, the UK and Serbia are the possible openers so far I think, maybe a very outside chance of Belgium. I'd assume Australia will be left till a bit later considering the time it will be there if they performed first, so it's between the UK and Serbia. UK does have a very "welcome to the 60th anniversary" feel about it, I think it's a more likely opener than Serbia personally.

 

You've also got to factor in the UK's complicated staging, so they will want extra time for that if possible.

I did say "nearly zero" as of course Australia don't have no chance at all but it has been made much much more unlikely now, the comparison to 'Popular' is the type of thing I'm getting at.

 

But in close contests, running order can have a significant effect and it has been proven by many statisticians. We haven't had a closely run contest except in 2011 and like Tirren says, swap Azerbaijan and Sweden in the running order and their positions could have also swapped - it would have been much much closer anyway. If Sweden draw first half then that will of course increase Australia's chances again, but increase Russia's chances even further.

 

Maybe it was an overreaction when I said Australia's chance of winning has gone, but it's definitely not going to help them.

 

On the topic of Italy, it's much more accessible than 'Sognu' was and I'm pretty sure it'll be top 5 now with that second half draw. The staging does let it down from being a certain winner but I agree with Iz that it is surely in the mix with Russia and Sweden.

 

I still can not see Australia out of contention when 25% [I'm not good at statistics and percentages] of the broadcast was dedicated to them. It has enormous hype and that'll only benefit them to be one of the front runners in the voting, irregardless of their performing slot.

It's true, they are a complete unknown quantity. I did think it was unfair that they got a whole VT dedicated to them last night.

What's the message exactly other than someone guessing it involves love?

 

Well, just that: Love, great love, in an Italian way, with attractive young men, which is going to be a package that resonates beyond language. Certainly more accessible than the likes of Sognu which I'd have to look up to tell you what it was about, I think the televoters often need to get into the lyrics and if they're going to go for a non-English song it's going to be this one because of the simplicity. So I don't really see it being in a foreign language as a barrier because of the way they've played it.

It's true, they are a complete unknown quantity. I did think it was unfair that they got a whole VT dedicated to them last night.

 

I expected Edurne and Lisa to walk out of the stage in outrage at any given point. :wacko:

UK does have a very "welcome to the 60th anniversary" feel about it, I think it's a more likely opener than Serbia personally.

This is how I feel aswell, there's something about it which does feel very "let's get things kicking", whether you like it or not, it's definitely one of the more clap along, get in the fun mood/spirit of Eurovision kind of songs this year.

If we do open though surely there'll be some conspiracy backlash (I mean among some tabloid with nothing better to run but STILL) from getting one of the bookend slots, neither of which have been helpful to us, 3 times in the last 4 years.

 

In fact I see very little reason why we can't just open with a ballad seeing as we'll have PLENTY of those to dispense with and it will set the theme for the evening.

I can't see past Sweden or Australia personally, regardless of running orders, but we'll see.

It's going to be an absurd landslide for Mans. You heard it here (thirty-)first.

On running orders: Standard variety show logic says you put the favourite third last, the second favourite last and a no-hoper in between (treating the two halves as different shows). So last year that meant Conchita-Elaiza-Sanna and Common Linnets-Valentina-Molly. So depending on what gets drawn where after Thursday I think Australia is either going to be in slot 11 or 13 and in all honesty, wouldn't surprise me if we got shoved between the two favourites as cannon fodder.

 

On Italy: Italy always get overhyped because the people paying attention to Eurovision at this point are generally predisposed to like genres like Italian ballads (see also French chansons) but in the grand scheme of things I don't think those genres have a lasting appeal outside of their home countries and small pockets of fans here and there. I think a Marco Mengoni type result is the most likely at this point (which is also the only time Italy have come higher than 15th on a televote, just saying).

I'm actively wanting us to open at this point, I think it would be a great opener and I don't think it's a bad slot (compared to say 2nd/3rd/4th) but Engelbert was completely the wrong thing for it.

 

Also wanting Sweden to draw first half as I am clinging to any hope that it won't win.

 

Italy I see doing better than France 2011 for the simple fact that there are three of them so I think that makes it more impactful but I don't see it in contention so to speak.