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Lana Del Rey and Linkin Park Take on Newcomer Sam Smith in an Upcoming Chart Battle Royale

 

Hits Daily Double (June 11th 2014):

 

The three-way battle for #1 on the HITS Album Sales Chart the week after next is beginning to sort itself out. At this point, industry forecasters are predicting a debut for Interscope’s Lana Del Rey in the 175-200k range, with Capitol’s Sam Smith in the 125-150k range and Warner Bros.’ Linkin Park around 100k.

 

Sam currently leads in preorders with about 50k; Lana has about 30 or 40k. Sam, however, benefits from a longer preorder window, having been available for 14 weeks, compared to Lana’s two weeks. Linkin continues to trail the other two, in the vicinity of 20k.

 

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPa...gi?news09909m01

 

 

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Lana Del Rey, Sam Smith, Linkin Park All Have Super Sales Week Ahead

 

Billboard (June 13th 2014):

 

On June 17, we'll see the retail arrivals of three albums that are all tentatively forecast by industry sources to sell over 100,000 in their first week: Lana Del Rey's "Ultraviolence," Sam Smith's "In the Lonely Hour" and Linkin Park's "The Hunting Party." If sales projections hold, that week will be the first this year to see three albums each sell in excess of 100,000 copies. It last happened in the holiday frame ending Dec. 29, 2013. (The last time it occurred when sales weren't goosed by the Christmas shopping season was the week ending Oct. 6, 2013.)

 

Lana Del Rey's "Ultraviolence" leads the debut pack, with industry sources suggesting it could sell over 175,000 copies in the week ending June 22. It's Del Rey's second full-length album for Polydor/Interscope Records and is aiming to be her first chart-topper. Del Rey's debut, "Born To Die," bowed and peaked at No. 2 with 77,000 sold in the week ending Feb. 5, 2012, according to Nielsen SoundScan. It surpassed 1 million in total U.S. sales in March, and its cumulative sum stands at 1.06 million.

 

Smith might move over 150,000 with his debut album -- though forecasters caution that figure could go higher.

 

Linkin Park's early estimate stands at 100,000 to 125,000.

 

Also among the significant arrivals on June 17: deadmau5's "while(1<2)," Willie Nelson's "Band of Brothers," Jennifer Lopez's "A.K.A." and Tiesto's "A Town Called Paradise."

 

deadmau5's album is hitting digital retailers first, on June 17, and will see a physical release on June 24. His last album, 2012's "Album Title Goes Here," sold 58,000 in its first week (with 41,000 of that downloads). Sources suggest "while(1<2)" might bow with 40,000.

 

Lopez's latest might sell 30,000, while Tiesto is aiming for around 15,000. Lopez's last studio effort, 2011's "Love?," debuted and peaked at No. 5 off an 83,000 start. Tiesto's last artist album (as opposed to a DJ-mixed compilation) was 2009's "Kaleidoscope." It debuted and peaked at No. 59 with 11,000 first-week sales.

 

 

Lana Holds Lead, Sam Comes on Strong, Linkin Grows in Early Numbers

 

June 17, 2014

 

Is this thing tightening up?

 

Early, early reads in advance of next week's three-way chart battle have Interscope's Lana Del Rey at 175-200k, Capitol's Sam Smith at 140-160k and Warner Bros.' Linkin Park at 110-120. Take these with the usual grains of Tuesday salt and stand by for further updates.

 

At iTunes,the deluxe edition of Sam's In the Lonely Hour jumped to #1 this afternoon, followed by Lana and Linkin, while Sam's standard edition is #6; on the singles side, Sam's "Stay With Me" is #5

 

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPa...gi?news09916m01

 

Nice to see the predictions for Sam adjusting up slightly. :D

I really thought I was deluding myself with my 170k prediction for Lana but it's great that she's looking likely to do even better. Very impressive that she's heading for #1 as well considering the stiff competition.

Edited by Noahspike

I could see the Sam predictions continually being raised until they are higher than the predictions for Lana, to be honest. I remember the predictions for Adele just rose and rose in 2011 and this reminds me of that already.
I could see the Sam predictions continually being raised until they are higher than the predictions for Lana, to be honest. I remember the predictions for Adele just rose and rose in 2011 and this reminds me of that already.

 

Yeah, that could happen. Still delighted with Lana's numbers though.

Would be so cruel if Lana missed out on the #1 :drama: I'm sure she'll drop like a rock after week 1, so she may as well get that 1-6 smash.
Well considering her last album sold a million and US first weeks are generally quite large in comparison to total sales, less than 100k would be somewhat catastrophic :P
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LANA V. SAM: THE CHART RACE HEATS UP

 

Hits Daily Double (June 18th 2014):

 

"A tightening battle for the top spot on next week’s chart is shaping up between Lana Del Rey’s Ultraviolence and Sam Smith’s debut album In the Lonely Hour following outstanding marketing jobs on the parts of John Janick’s Interscope and Steve Barnett’s Capitol, respectively, with both debuts off to bracingly fast starts.

 

According to the latest retail reports, Del Rey’s album is on track to finish in the neighborhood of 170-190k, while we’re presently projecting a total in the 140-160k range for Smith as he closes what had initially been a sizable gap.

 

The two artists and their labels have employed strikingly different strategies to get to this point, with Smith remaining highly visible on TV, while his "Stay With Me" has been widely embraced by radio. Del Rey’s presence, by contrast, is primarily online, as she and IGA have dexterously used social media and YouTube to engage her large and fiercely loyal core audience."

 

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPa...gi?news09919m01

 

 

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Lana Del Rey's 'Ultraviolence' Heading for No. 1 on Billboard 200

 

Billboard (June 18th 2014):

 

"Lana Del Rey is on course for her first No. 1 album, as "Ultraviolence," which was released on June 17, should debut atop the Billboard 200 chart next week. Industry sources suggest the set, which is her second full-length effort for Polydor/Interscope Records, may sell upwards of 175,000 to 180,000 copies in the week ending June 22.

 

Newcomer Sam Smith could arrive in the runner-up slot with his debut effort, "In the Lonely Hour." Its sales projection stands at around 150,000. Rock band Linkin Park is aiming for the No. 3 position with its new album, "The Hunting Party," with a start of around 100,000 to 110,000 sold.

 

Other albums aiming for notable debuts on the Billboard 200 next week include Willie Nelson's "Band of Brothers" (30,000 to 35,000), Jennifer Lopez's "A.K.A." (30,000 to 35,000) and deadmau5's "while(1<2)" (25,000 to 30,000)."

 

http://www.billboard.com/articles/news/612...k-willie-nelson

 

 

It's a pity that all these albums are coming in one week. They all could have got #1s if they were more spread out, even Linking Park.

Really impressive but ultimately it will be ehr Born this Way. The fewer people who buy this album and egt disappointed in it compared to BTD, the btter for her future career and credibility tbf.

 

However it is a huge turn around since the SNL backlash and fact that BTD took months to even sell 70,000 back in the US when she wasn't popular there! :lol:

Really impressive but ultimately it will be ehr Born this Way. The fewer people who buy this album and egt disappointed in it compared to BTD, the btter for her future career and credibility tbf.

 

However it is a huge turn around since the SNL backlash and fact that BTD took months to even sell 70,000 back in the US when she wasn't popular there! :lol:

I think you'll find there's nothing to be disappointed about in Ultraviolence...

 

And it took BTD all of one week to sell 70k :lol:

Ultra violence is brilliant! Can see it becoming platinum by the end of the era. Not quite sure it'll touch a million by the end of the year
Ultra violence is brilliant! Can see it becoming platinum by the end of the era. Not quite sure it'll touch a million by the end of the year

Personally I'd be very happy with Gold. I can't see any huge hits on the album (I feel like 'Shades of Cool' is her best shot but that's not been impressing on iTunes) and I don't think another Cedric Gervais remix will work :( It very much deserves Platinum though, and I'm glad she's landed a few tracks from it on the Hot 100 already.

Ultraviolence, Sad Girl & Old Money could potentially do moderately okay, however there's no worldwide smash waiting to happen.
Ecstatic for Lana! I'm sure Smith will hit #1 in the next coming weeks, judging by his growing popularity by the day.
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HITS DAILY DOUBLE: WEEKEND CHART PREVIEW

 

HDD (June 12, 2014)

  • Lana Del Rey (Interscope) 180-190k (NEW)
  • Sam Smith (Capitol) 150-160k (NEW)
  • Linkin Park (Warner Bros.) 100-110k (NEW)
  • Frozen (Walt Disney) 40-45k
  • Miranda Lambert (RCA Nashville) 35-40k
  • Willie Nelson (Legacy) 35-40k (NEW)
  • Jack White (Third Man/Columbia) 28-32k
  • Jennifer Lopez (Capitol) 28-32k (NEW)
  • Now 50 (NOW) 27-30k
  • Deadmau5 (Mau5trap/Astralwerks) 27-30k (NEW)
  • Brantley Gilbert (Valory) 25-27k
  • Coldplay (Parlophone) 23-25k
  • The Black Keys (Nonesuch/Warner Bros.) 22-24k
  • Fault In Our Stars (Atlantic) 21-23k
  • Michael Jackson (Epic) 16-18k

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/rumormill.cgi

 

 

Glad Lana still has a bit of a lead on Sam. Makes you wonder what she could have done with a more commercial single and promo (I read somewhere that she cancelled prior talk show appearances so not sure if she's actually performed on TV yet).

 

JLo could potentially miss the top 10, which would be disastrous given she would only need ~30k and has such an established fanbase.

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