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The same world that hasn't learned from the last few times they've made the popera entry the favourite to win and failed miserably.
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Sweden have moved in front since that update!
Italy do seem like more of a threat than say, Sognu, might have been. They're singing about a relatable/attractive concept, there's three of them to do contrasting vocal styles and I think it could come across rather impressive on the night. Not that I see them winning or doing better than Heroes but I'm fairly sure this'll return them to the top 10 if not more.
  • 2 weeks later...
  • Author

First proper update since all the songs have been released. As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with tied countries ordered by their support on Betfair Exchange. Countries that are moving up the odds position-wise (not necessarily odds-wise) compared to the last update on here are coloured in green, those moving down are in red and those who haven't moved are in black.

 

01 | 07/4 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden · Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes

02 | 05/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy · Il Volo - Grande Amore

03 | 07/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia · Elina Born & Stig Rästa - Goodbye To Yesterday

04 | 14/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/au.png Australia · Guy Sebastian - Tonight Again

05 | 14/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Slovenia.png Slovenia · Maraaya - Here For You

06 | 16/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland · Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina Mun Pitää

07 | 20/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia · Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices

08 | 25/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan · Elnur Huseynov - Hour Of The Wolf

09 | 25/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway · Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me

10 | 40/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom · Electro Velvet - Still In Love With You

 

11 | 50/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland · Maria Olafs - Unbroken

12 | 50/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium · Loïc Nottet - Rhythm Inside

13 | 66/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia · Aminata - Love Injected

14 | 66/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain · Edurne - Amanecer

15 | 66/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia · Genealogy - Face The Shadow

16 | 80/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece · Maria Elena Kyriakou - One Last Breath

17 | 80/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus · John Karayiannis - One Thing I Should Have Done

18 | 80/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania · Voltaj - De La Capăt / All Over Again

19 | 80/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta · Amber - Warrior

 

Above 80/1...

 

100/1

20 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania · 21 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia · 22 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus · 23 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/France.png France · 24 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria · 25 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia · 26 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania · 27 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel · 28 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark · 29 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands · 30 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Montenegro.png Montenegro · 31 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland · 32 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia · 33 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary · 34 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland

 

125/1

35 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Poland.png Poland · 36 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany

 

150/1

37 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova · 38 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Czech_Republic.png Czech Republic · 39 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Portugal.png Portugal · 40 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino

 

Iceland and Russia are the big movers, two of the only countries where their odds are getting shorter rather than longer. Considering on the last update 'A Million Voices' hadn't premiered, this is a massive achievement for Iceland in particular!

Georgia, Malta and Latvia still looking like great each way bets :o
  • Author

I'd really like to think Germany would at least be top-half contenders but those odds certainly tell a different story!

 

Georgia is definitely the stand out each-way bet for me too, and possibly Hungary as I believe Boggie will either do very very well or be in the bottom few of the semi. If it's the former then there's money to be made!

I do think Germany are being underestimated, it's a great song. Although then again maybe it'll be overlooked like Glorious was in 2013?!

Georgia is much fancied each way bet, agreed. Those odds are a little silly.

 

Germany is a bit too "so-so" to make any inroads on the night. I think Australia won't do as well as the odds suggest, likewise with Finland.

 

Sweden are destroying this now. I think Estonia will come a solid second though.

Edited by ScottyEm

  • 2 weeks later...
From looking at the betting Sweden look almost as certain to win as they did with Loreen.
  • 3 weeks later...
  • Author

Time for an update as we are now less than a month away!

 

As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with tied countries ordered by their support on Betfair Exchange. Countries that are moving up the odds position-wise (not necessarily odds-wise) compared to the last update on here are coloured in green, those moving down are in red and those who haven't moved are in black.

 

01 | 006/4 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden · Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes

02 | 007/2 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy · Il Volo - Grande Amore

03 | 005/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/au.png Australia · Guy Sebastian - Tonight Again

04 | 010/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia · Elina Born & Stig Rästa - Goodbye To Yesterday

05 | 025/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland · Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina Mun Pitää

06 | 025/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia · Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices

07 | 025/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway · Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me

08 | 025/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Slovenia.png Slovenia · Maraaya - Here For You

09 | 033/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan · Elnur Huseynov - Hour Of The Wolf

10 | 050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland · Maria Olafs - Unbroken

 

11 | 050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom · Electro Velvet - Still In Love With You

12 | 050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium · Loïc Nottet - Rhythm Inside

13 | 066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain · Edurne - Amanecer

14 | 066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania · Elhaida Dani - I'm Alive

15 | 080/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia · Genealogy - Face The Shadow

16 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia · Aminata - Love Injected

17 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus · Uzari & Maimuna - Time

18 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus · John Karayiannis - One Thing I Should Have Done

19 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands · Trijntje Oosterhuis - Walk Along

20 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary · Boggie - Wars For Nothing

21 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece · Maria Elena Kyriakou - One Last Breath

22 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania · Voltaj - De La Capăt / All Over Again

23 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta · Amber - Warrior

 

Above 100/1...

 

125/1

24 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia · 25 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/France.png France · 26 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia · 27 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel · 28 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria · 29 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland · 30 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark · 31 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany · 32 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Poland.png Poland · 33 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Montenegro.png Montenegro

 

150/1

34 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania

 

200/1

35 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia · 36 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova · 37 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland · 38 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Czech_Republic.png Czech Republic · 39 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino

 

250/1

40 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Portugal.png Portugal

Time for an update as we are now less than a month away!

 

tumblr_inline_mn0hbfz1Po1qz4rgp.gif

 

I am so tempted to chuck a fiver on Georgia each way.

 

I do not get why Azerbaijan is so low too. It is really Elnur vs Mans this year
Plus, from the few live clips I've seen, the award for this year's "Jessie J School of Singing" performance could well go to the Azeris and keep them out of the top 5.
I mean, it's a fab track, but let's not pretend that the housewives of LINZ 'n' MELBOURNE will be running to the phones for Elnur's shrieks
  • Author

Yeah he does seem to be oversinging in some of these performances, but you can never count out Azerbaijan as we know they will come up with some fantastic staging in Vienna. If Elnur is told to sing closer to the studio version then there's definitely an opportunity, at least for a top 4 finish.

 

Elnur's promotional tour has been absolutely massive this month, he must have been to more than 10 or 15 countries. Of course Anggun proved that it doesn't necessarily help, but I'm sure it does help in some cases.

I feel like I don't want anyone to win this year. Gonna be 2011 all over again for me :(
  • 2 weeks later...
  • Author

Time for a final update before rehearsals begin tomorrow and things begin to change dramatically!

 

As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with tied countries ordered by their support on Betfair Exchange. Countries that are moving up the odds position-wise (not necessarily odds-wise) compared to the last update on here are coloured in green, those moving down are in red and those who haven't moved are in black.

 

01 | 015/8 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden · Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes

02 | 007/2 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy · Il Volo - Grande Amore

03 | 009/2 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/au.png Australia · Guy Sebastian - Tonight Again

04 | 009/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia · Elina Born & Stig Rästa - Goodbye To Yesterday

05 | 018/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland · Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina Mun Pitää

06 | 025/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia · Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices

07 | 028/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway · Mørland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me

08 | 033/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan · Elnur Huseynov - Hour Of The Wolf

09 | 033/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Slovenia.png Slovenia · Maraaya - Here For You

10 | 050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland · Maria Olafs - Unbroken

 

11 | 050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom · Electro Velvet - Still In Love With You

12 | 066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium · Loïc Nottet - Rhythm Inside

13 | 066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain · Edurne - Amanecer

14 | 066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania · Elhaida Dani - I'm Alive

15 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus · Uzari & Maimuna - Time

16 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia · Genealogy - Face The Shadow

17 | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel · Nadav Guedj - Golden Boy

 

Above 100/1...

 

125/1

18 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia · 19 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus · 20 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria · 21 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia · 22 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece · 23 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary · 24 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Poland.png Poland

 

150/1

25 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands · 26 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania · 27 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania · 28 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany · 29 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark

 

200/1

30 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia · 31 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/France.png France · 32 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia · 33 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland · 34 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Montenegro.png Montenegro

 

250/1

35 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta

 

300/1

36 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland · 37 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Czech_Republic.png Czech Republic · 38 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino

 

500/1

39 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova · 40 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Portugal.png Portugal

  • Author
So we are seeing the first dramatic shift in the odds, with Russia plummeting down to 10s, 12s and 14s in a matter of minutes and is now favourite to win semi 1 and 4th favourite to win overall with some bookies already!

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