May 12, 201510 yr Semi Final 1 1. Russia 2. Estonia 3. Finland 4. Belgium 5. Romania 6. Macedonia 7. Greece 8. Moldova 9. Georgia 10. Albania ----- 11. Hungary 12. The Netherlands 13. Belarus 14. Armenia 15. Denmark 16. Serbia The only country I can see failing to qualify here is Serbia sadly however the rest is so hard to predict. I think this is the closest semi final ever since the 2 semi system was introduced. Russia, Estonia, Belgium and Finland are safely through I think. Semi Final 2 1. Sweden 2. Slovenia 3. Azerbaijan 4. Norway 5. Iceland 6. Lithuania 7. Cyprus 8. Czech Republic 9. Ireland 10. Israel ----- 11. Switzerland 12. Latvia 13. Poland 14. Montenegro 15. Malta 16. San Marino 17. Portugal Sweden, Slovenia, Azerbaijan, Norway, Iceland and Lithuania are safe I think. They would have to seriously fuck up their perfs for them to fail to qualify. I can see Israel just sneaking through thanks to the ballad heavy first half and being followed by Latvia and Azerbaijan. San Marino and Portugal are dead on arrival, both possible nul pointers. Final 1. Sweden 2. Australia 3. Slovenia 4. Russia 5. Estonia 6. Norway 7. Azerbaijan 8. Finland 9. Italy 10. Belgium 11. Spain 12. Romania 13. Greece 14. Germany 15. Iceland 16. Lithuania 17. Moldova 18. Macedonia 19. Austria 20. Albania 21. Cyprus 22. United Kingdom 23. Georgia 24. Ireland 25. Israel 26. Czech Republic 27. France Slovenia are gonna get their best placing ever this year, everyone I've played the song too as loved it, in fact with great staging I can easily see it challenging Björkman and Zelmerlöw. Italy underperforming some what but I'd say 9th is about as best as they can hope for. France could well be a nul pointer, definitely on the televote like Anggun (</3) a few years ago anyway but the older juries could well save it from that fate.
May 15, 201510 yr I should do a prediction at some point given rehearsals have happened. Semi 1 01 Russia 02 Estonia 03 Greece 04 Belarus 05 Finland 06 Romania 07 Macedonia 08 Denmark 09 Georgia 10 Hungary ---- 11 Moldova 12 Armenia 13 Serbia 14 Albania 15 Belgium 16 Netherlands Seriously, beyond Russia and Estonia as the top 2 I'm not very confident about how this'll play out. Greece I had down as a shock non-qualifier not too long ago because of the atypical ballad from them and lack of Cyprus but a strong rehearsal and little competition has had me putting it right up there as one of the most likely ones now. Belarus I'm sure will make it through, I can't shake off how much it sounds like an Azeri entry with added violin, I don't think lack of an hourglass will do them in. In a semi like this Finland will have to stand out, I would be very surprised if it doesn't make it and I don't think we can predict what the juries will do to it, they're just as likely to love it due to the story/'real music' as they are to hate it IMO. The other 5 I've chosen by looking at the most accessible and quickly likeable songs in the semi + close attention to the running order assuming all the ones on early will suffer against songs with slightly similar accessibility on later (though Moldova's rehearsal is enough for me to put it quite close) and assuming messages like those from Romania and Hungary will resonate (the latter just enough to put it through with quite a weak song). I've put Belgium and Netherlands at the bottom because I could really see them failing to make any sort of impact at all, but I think they're more likely to qualify than Serbia and Albania who have weirdly structured songs that I think are quite challenging to get past. Ditto for Armenia. Semi 2 01 Sweden 02 Norway 03 Azerbaijan 04 Slovenia 05 Czech Republic 06 Poland 07 Cyprus 08 Ireland 09 Iceland 10 Lithuania ---- 11 Israel 12 Latvia 13 Malta 14 Montenegro 15 Switzerland 16 Portugal 17 San Marino I'm not going to argue Sweden's semi win, I think that's an almost inevitable prospect. Norway and Azerbaijan will be safe through too. Slovenia has a strong song, the Czechs I think will really benefit from their chemistry and given what we've seen I'm very sure they'll put in a great performance. There's much less potential neighbour voting in this semi too so that will probably work in their favour too. Iceland should have a strong enough song to get through but I'm not certain of it anymore. I've rather made my peace with Poland and Cyprus getting through now and I think they'd really have to screw things up to not now with good draws and 'nice' ballads to win the voters over. If Poland can get through I think Ireland, with what looks like a stronger performance should also but will be damaged by being on earlier. Same thing for Lithuania, it would be through normally and while it isn't the strongest duet it will come across as the most 'couple-y' so that'll help it. San Marino/Portugal, yeah they're gone. I don't think Switzerland will make it either unfortunately and Montenegro isn't showcasing Zeljko at his best, certainly not for first listen, I'd be surprised if they managed to repeat last year. Maybe I'm just playing up the potential disaster but Israel and Latvia so heartbreakingly close seems like a very likely result to me, both weird songs that may not be instantly gotten, and will ultimately just miss out by a bit.
May 15, 201510 yr The best two songs in semi 1 being the bottom two is not something I want to see happening :hitler:
May 15, 201510 yr I agree with most of your predictions there, except for Macedonia probably as their rehearsal just looks so odd to me. Hopefully Belgium will click with the audience instead but I'm not completely sure it will like you say.
May 15, 201510 yr Author Based on the rehearsals I think I'd break it down like this Semi One Safely Through Russia Estonia Greece Georgia Comfortably Through Romania Denmark Hungary Belgium Borderline - Right now the two I'd say are through from here are Armenia and Albania but there's not much in it. Moldova Armenia Finland Serbia Albania Belarus Struggling Netherlands Macedonia Semi Two Safely Through Sweden Azerbaijan Norway Comfortably Through Slovenia Lithuania Poland Borderline - Again if I'm picking four then I'd plump for Czech Republic, Israel, Latvia and Cyprus. Ireland Montenegro Malta Czech Republic Israel Latvia Iceland Cyprus Struggling Switzerland Not a snowflake in hell's chance San Marino Portugal Edited May 15, 201510 yr by LexC
May 15, 201510 yr A lot suggesting Lithuania will qualify. I don't think it will (or, I bloody hope not - it's awful!)
May 15, 201510 yr Author Honestly, with UK, Latvia, Poland, Ireland and Germany voting in that semi, it being one of about only 4 uptempo numbers in the whole semi and considering the trip they've qualified with in the past they're as good as qualified already.
May 18, 201510 yr Here are my final predictions for semi 1! Semi Final One 01 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia 02 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland 03 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece 04 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania 05 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark 06 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia 07 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium 08 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia 09 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova 10 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia 11 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia 12 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus 13 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary 14 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia 15 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania 16 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands Same top 10 as before but a few position changes.
May 18, 201510 yr My predictions of the 1st semi ESTONIA 1st place !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! RUSSIA 2nd place close to Estonia GREECE 3rd place ALBANIA qualified GEORGIA qualified BELGIUM qualified ROMANIA qualified NETHERLAND qualified and shocked everybody in this forum ... 10.MOLDOVA possible qualified 11 Belarus might took the place from moldova 12 Denmark might took the place from moldova so Moldova ,Belarus and Denmark for the last ticket ... 13 F.Y.R. Macedonia hardly qualify 14 Serbia hardly qualify 15 finland not a chance and shocked everyon here 16 Hungary not a chance Edited May 18, 201510 yr by esc_expert
May 19, 201510 yr I'm thinking only Sweden, Australia and Russia have a chance at winning. Italy has Amaury Vassili written all over it, Estonia and Slovenia are just not THAT impactful and I have Elnur Hüseynov down for getting close but not quite bettering his 2008 result. I see no one else capable of breaking through in Common Linnets fashion so it's either Sweden with their impressive staging and current song, Australia for the novelty (see Italy 2011) and the song which is also very chart friendly or Russia and it's showstopping prowess. Hoping this is the year one of Greece and Romania will DNQ. I'm here for a shock win for Belgium and a shock Q for Portugal :kink:
May 19, 201510 yr Russia have a chance at winning. :lol: :lol: :lol: Sweden is obvious winner (95 %). I think, that only Norway and maybe maybe Estonia have a very small chances (5 % together), but it's the illusion of competition. Also I can predict third place for Australia. Azerbaijan will buy their undeserved place in top 5 again and again. Edited May 19, 201510 yr by Sword of Justice
May 19, 201510 yr I wonder how much money did Azerbaijan spend in their 22nd place last year. They spent that money on the first European Games. :lol: Edited May 19, 201510 yr by Sword of Justice
May 19, 201510 yr How would Finland shock anyone? Mentally disabled people playing punk rock. (they're pretty popular here, can't really see the shock factor but they have a nice message) Edited May 19, 201510 yr by SKOB
May 19, 201510 yr Semi One 01 Belgium 02 Estonia 03 Netherlands 04 Russia 05 Greece 06 Armenia 07 Georgia 08 Serbia 09 Albania 10 Romania Semi Two 01 Sweden 02 Norway 03 Ireland 04 Slovenia 05 Iceland 06 Switzerland 07 Israel 08 Malta 09 Azerbaijan 10 Cyprus (I guess that it will be the biggesst surprise of the night)
May 19, 201510 yr I'd be more surprised if Cyprus didn't qualify at this point. Although I'd put Hungary's chances at about the same as it right now, and that has a more direct message.
May 19, 201510 yr Semi Final 1 1. Russia 2. Estonia 3. Finland 4. Belgium 5. Romania 6. Macedonia 7. Greece 8. Moldova 9. Georgia 10. Albania ----- 11. Hungary 12. The Netherlands 13. Belarus 14. Armenia 15. Denmark 16. Serbia 7/10. A massive oversight on Serbia from me, I was certain it would be the gay favourite to flop on its arse!
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