March 22, 20169 yr Author France is a really tough one to predict, it could be in top 10 contention but only with a perfect running order slot and massively revamped staging compared to what we've seen in Amir's live performances so far. As it's unlikely both will happen I'm thinking maybe 13th-15th for France at the moment. Moving slightly off-topic I'm going to have to revise down my earlier prediction of that sort of position for Joe and Jake as the high quality entries that have come in since make it seem difficult for them to achieve much more than top 20 unfortunately, there's still a slightly amateur feel to them compared to many others and I think they'll suffer from a slightly worse than Molly-esque result despite how much I love it.
March 22, 20169 yr France is a really tough one to predict, it could be in top 10 contention but only with a perfect running order slot and massively revamped staging compared to what we've seen in Amir's live performances so far. As it's unlikely both will happen I'm thinking maybe 13th-15th for France at the moment. Moving slightly off-topic I'm going to have to revise down my earlier prediction of that sort of position for Joe and Jake as the high quality entries that have come in since make it seem difficult for them to achieve much more than top 20 unfortunately, there's still a slightly amateur feel to them compared to many others and I think they'll suffer from a slightly worse than Molly-esque result despite how much I love it. I can actually see a repeat of Germany/Austria last year for them where they're a lot of people's 5th or so favourite and thus they do really badly. My tips to outperform those odds would be Iceland, Israel and Finland at this stage.
March 22, 20169 yr France is one of the best, most modern / chart friendly sounding (if we ignore the French) entries that this year has to offer! I am really against the idea of Russia winning, it just doesn't sound like a '2016' winner to me. Surprised Bulgaria's odds haven't improved drastically, again it's modern / chart friendly sounding and I've only read positive comments about it both on here and Moopy.
March 22, 20169 yr Author I'll be surprised if Croatia do that well, pleasant as it is! I would be too! Although I can see top 10 in the final as she is fantastic live, for all of these semi-final one entries I feel like getting through that semi is the toughest thing as we are bound to lose at least one of these so-called favourites. I can actually see a repeat of Germany/Austria last year for them where they're a lot of people's 5th or so favourite and thus they do really badly. My tips to outperform those odds would be Iceland, Israel and Finland at this stage. Potentially although Amir has the benefit of not being an "aggressive-looking" female and has a song that is actually fairly memorable after one listen unlike I Am Yours. Pretty sure the jury would be fans of J'ai cherché anyway, so the new system will drag up a mediocre televote to mid-table I should think. Agreed with Iceland and Israel too actually, although Finland have no chance of qualifying for me - besides San Marino and Montenegro and maybe Moldova I'd have Finland next as certain non-qualifiers (although as I've already said barely anything is certain in that semi!). France is one of the best, most modern / chart friendly sounding (if we ignore the French) entries that this year has to offer! I am really against the idea of Russia winning, it just doesn't sound like a '2016' winner to me. Surprised Bulgaria's odds haven't improved drastically, again it's modern / chart friendly sounding and I've only read positive comments about it both on here and Moopy. I don't really want Russia to win either as I love Eurovision producing massive hits, and You Are The Only One certainly isn't going to be on whereas If I Were Sorry and even Sound Of Silence or Walk On Water would be just looking at the top of the favourites. I'd much preferred Polina to win last year and Frans this year than the other way round but Russia are deserving of another win at some stage. Bulgaria is placed about right I think, it's not going to win but upper mid-table in the final sounds about right to me - a little reminiscent of Maraaya with being a typical underperforming country with a dance/instrumental-influenced fan favourite. I'm just glad Poli is in the second semi-final as surely there is no way she's not making it out of there!
March 22, 20169 yr Given the two horse race for the prize, I'm not gonna be liking this years winner. I think Latvia will absolutely clean up the jury vote and yield plenty of televote so, should get a very similar result to last year actually. I think Belgium will do better than the bookies expect. With. Decent staging, I reckon this will sail into the final. I also think Iceland will do better than suggested.
March 22, 20169 yr Well I was *actually* talking about Joe and Jake but hey it works for France in theory as well!
March 23, 20169 yr France is one of the best, most modern / chart friendly sounding (if we ignore the French) entries that this year has to offer! It is very modern and commercial but I just feel like it's missing something in terms of being a Eurovision hit. It's the most viable entry France have sent since... forever, but that doesn't mean much. I think it's not quite attention grabbing enough to do very well but ... top 15 if it's looking? edit: "looking"?
March 23, 20169 yr I feel like Bulgaria would be right near the top of the odds if it wasn't being sent by Bulgaria. They have such a poor record and based on the past points they've gotten, it seems like no one in Europe cares about them. It could easily just be a fan favourite flop because of being sent by Bulgaria but if it was being sent by Russia it'd be right at the top, no questions asked. I feel like it could get top 10 for them as long as they get the staging/impact right, and they overcome being Bulgarian. It's way more instant than Maraaya. France has the opposite problem, they're a country people care about and people want them to do better so that when they send a more accessible entry than they have the past couple of years the odds go up for them. This entry took me a little while to come round though and I feel like it'll only just outdo recent French entries rather than massively outdo them, so 20th instead of 12th.
March 23, 20169 yr How the hell is Sweden so far behind Russia at this point? I might shove another £20 on at those odds.
March 25, 20169 yr 2010 2009 2008 2007 Last year was pretty predictable following a very unpredictable 2014! Dustin The Turkey was third favourite to win in 2008??? :o :blink:
April 13, 20169 yr Author A full update after the running order reveal, 4 of the 5 pre-parties and with just over three weeks until rehearsals kick off! As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with ties split by latest Betfair Exchange odds. The positions in brackets were the positions in the previous odds update a few weeks ago. 01 (01) | 007/4 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia · Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 02 (07) | 013/2 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/France.png France · Amir - J'ai cherché 03 (02) | 011/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden · Frans - If I Were Sorry 04 (04) | 014/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/au.png Australia · Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 05 (05) | 020/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta · Ira Losco - Walk On Water 06 (09) | 020/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine · Jamala - 1944 07 (11) | 022/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia · Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 08 (06) | 022/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia · Justs - Heartbeat 09 (08) | 025/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia · Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 10 (15) | 033/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain · Barei - Say Yay! 11 (14) | 035/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bulgaria.png Bulgaria · Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 12 (12) | 040/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy · Francesca Michielin - No Degree Of Separation 13 (03) | 045/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Croatia.png Croatia · Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 14 (19) | 050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Poland.png Poland · Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 15 (21) | 050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands · Douwe Bob - Slow Down 16 (22) | 066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Czech_Republic.png Czech Republic · Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand 17 (13) | 066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus · Minus One - Alter Ego 18 (17) | 066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary · Freddie - Pioneer 19 (10) | 066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan · Samra - Miracle 20 (16) | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany · Jamie-Lee - Ghost 21 (18) | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland · Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling 22 (20) | 100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway · Agnete - Icebreaker 23 (23) | 125/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria · ZOË - Loin d'ici 24 (30) | 150/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel · Hovi Star - Made Of Stars 25 (24) | 175/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania · Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 26 (29) | 200/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium · Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure 27 (26) | 250/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland · Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 28 (28) | 300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark · Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 29 (27) | 300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia · Jüri Pootsmann - Play 30 (25) | 300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom · Joe and Jake - You're Not Alone 31 (37) | 300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus · IVAN - Help You Fly 32 (32) | 350/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia · Kaliopi - Dona 33 (31) | 350/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland · Sandhja - Sing It Away 34 (34) | 400/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece · Argo - Utopian Land 35 (33) | 500/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Romania.png Romania · Ovidiu Anton - Moment Of Silence 36 (40) | 700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bosnia_Herzegovina.png Bosnia & Herzegovina · Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je 37 (42) | 700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia · Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 38 (39) | 700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania · Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 39 (41) | 700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova · Lidia Isac - Falling Stars 40 (43) | 700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Montenegro.png Montenegro · Highway - The Real Thing 41 (35) | 700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino · Serhat - I Didn't Know 42 (38) | 700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Slovenia.png Slovenia · ManuElla - Blue And Red 43 (36) | 700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland · Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind Biggest climbers: Belarus, Czech Republic, Israel and The Netherlands (6 places); France, Poland and Spain (5 places) Biggest fallers: Croatia (10 places); Azerbaijan (9 places); Switzerland (7 places); San Marino (6 places)
April 18, 20169 yr Author The tide is continuing to turn, Russia now as high as 2/1 with France as short as just over 3/1 in places! I still don't quite see why France is being chosen as Russia's closest challenger but I'm all for Amir being in contention even though I think top 10 will probably be his ceiling.
April 30, 20169 yr Author So here is a full update prior to rehearsals getting underway on Monday! As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker with ties split by latest Betfair Exchange odds. The positions in brackets were the positions in the previous odds update a few weeks ago. 01 (01) | 0002/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia · Sergey Lazarev - You Are The Only One 02 (02) | 0007/2 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/France.png France · Amir - J'ai cherché 03 (03) | 0016/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Sweden.png Sweden · Frans - If I Were Sorry 04 (04) | 0016/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/au.png Australia · Dami Im - Sound Of Silence 05 (11) | 0016/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bulgaria.png Bulgaria · Poli Genova - If Love Was A Crime 06 (05) | 0020/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta · Ira Losco - Walk On Water 07 (08) | 0025/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia · Justs - Heartbeat 08 (06) | 0025/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine · Jamala - 1944 09 (12) | 0028/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Italy.png Italy · Francesca Michielin - No Degree Of Separation 10 (09) | 0028/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia · Sanja Vučić ZAA - Goodbye (Shelter) 11 (07) | 0028/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia · Iveta Mukuchyan - LoveWave 12 (10) | 0045/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Spain.png Spain · Barei - Say Yay! 13 (16) | 0050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Czech_Republic.png Czech Republic · Gabriela Gunčíková - I Stand 14 (15) | 0050/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands · Douwe Bob - Slow Down 15 (14) | 0060/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Poland.png Poland · Michał Szpak - Color Of Your Life 16 (13) | 0066/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Croatia.png Croatia · Nina Kraljić - Lighthouse 17 (19) | 0100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan · Samra - Miracle 18 (18) | 0100/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary · Freddie - Pioneer 19 (21) | 0125/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland · Greta Salóme - Hear Them Calling 20 (17) | 0125/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus · Minus One - Alter Ego 21 (20) | 0125/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Germany.png Germany · Jamie-Lee - Ghost 22 (22) | 0125/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway · Agnete - Icebreaker 23 (24) | 0200/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel · Hovi Star - Made Of Stars 24 (23) | 0200/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria · ZOË - Loin d'ici 25 (26) | 0200/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium · Laura Tesoro - What's The Pressure 26 (30) | 0300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/United_Kingdom.png United Kingdom · Joe and Jake - You're Not Alone 27 (29) | 0300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia · Jüri Pootsmann - Play 28 (28) | 0300/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark · Lighthouse X - Soldiers Of Love 29 (25) | 0350/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania · Donny Montell - I've Been Waiting For This Night 30 (31) | 0350/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus · IVAN - Help You Fly 31 (27) | 0400/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland · Nicky Byrne - Sunlight 32 (33) | 0500/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland · Sandhja - Sing It Away 33 (35) | 0700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bosnia_Herzegovina.png Bosnia & Herzegovina · Dalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and Jala - Ljubav Je 34 (36) | 0700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia · Nika Kocharov and Young Georgian Lolitaz - Midnight Gold 35 (37) | 0700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania · Eneda Tarifa - Fairytale 36 (34) | 0700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece · Argo - Utopian Land 37 (39) | 0700/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Montenegro.png Montenegro · Highway - The Real Thing 38 (32) | 1000/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia · Kaliopi - Dona 39 (38) | 1000/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova · Lidia Isac - Falling Stars 40 (40) | 1000/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino · Serhat - I Didn't Know 41 (41) | 1000/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Slovenia.png Slovenia · ManuElla - Blue And Red 42 (42) | 1000/1 | http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland · Rykka - The Last Of Our Kind Biggest climbers: Bulgaria (6 places); United Kingdom (4 places); Czech Republic and Italy (3 places) Biggest fallers: F.Y.R. Macedonia (6 places); Armenia, Lithuania and Ireland (4 places); Croatia and Cyprus (3 places)
May 2, 20169 yr Author France and Russia now joint favourites at 9/4 in a couple of places, fans overreacting to Russia's rehearsal in super quick time!
May 3, 20169 yr Oh my god I'm looking at the odds for the first time and I had no idea France was so high :lol: Have we ever been this high? I like Amir's song but I'm not totally sold to it. I agree it's a nice one though. I'm glad for him. Although I feel like we don't have a chance to do that well with all the political votes compared to Russia. Who would vote for France :cry:
May 3, 20169 yr Author Yeah France were clear favourites in 2011 with Amaury which didn't end up too well! I can't see France winning, I'm still not convinced by Amir's live performances but if they have some amazing staging and he's sorted out the vocals in the last third of the song then maybe he could be in contention but my instinct says low top 10 at the moment. I bet 6 years ago everyone was saying "who would vote for Germany?" but they ended up smashing the televote so as always I don't buy this political voting, same for the UK in 2011 who managed top 5 in the televote. Cultural voting exists, Sergey is a major popstar in ex-Soviet countries so it is only expected that he gets high televotes from the east and why shouldn't he. The UK gave 12 to Jedward in 2011 as we were very familiar with them and have a fanbase in the UK. Diaspora voting exists as well and that is the only "issue" with the voting in my opinion, but you can't win Eurovision on diaspora votes alone. I think Sweden are still Russia's biggest challengers, especially with all the over-elaborate stage shows Frans is really going to stand out. I guess Amir could do too if his staging says simple, but he'll need a good draw and good vocals as I say. :D
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