No chance Mariah is no.1.

 

No.8.

 

#psychicbeaver

 

Brooklyn Beckham stands a chance though tbh! Like S Club Juniors rubbish attempt.

No chance Mariah is no.1.

 

No.8.

 

#psychicbeaver

 

Brooklyn Beckham stands a chance though tbh! Like S Club Juniors rubbish attempt.

 

Considering that Brooklyn Beckham has only taken the cover photo for his little brother's single, the chances of him also releasing a song at the same time seem remote.

:lol:

 

Could well if the XF one sells well!

Just over a year after I started this thread, what does everyone think the chances are this year? With the streaming ratio increasing to 300:1 for older songs declining and Christmas songs generally increasing in sales week on week until December 25th, I think Mariah could do it since she managed #5 last year. Or perhaps a new Christmas release? Little Mix could throw a curveball.

Edited September 19, 20177 yr by Scene

I think the changes to the chart will most likely mean that she doesn't quite make it again prob top 10!

 

Sales don't always increase before xmas week sometimes they rise in the first week of December then fall and then rise in the week before xmas!

We are approaching the back end of a year where Drake was at number one for four months. I'd hazard a guess at 'no' in answer to that question but stranger things have happened.

 

As has been pointed out above, the usual festive suspects - the Pogues, Carey, Wizzard etc - were all kept out of the top 10 due to streaming last year. And for all the world I can't see your Spotifys and Deezers giving homepage playlist exposure to 20, 30, in some cases 40 year old songs that lose all chart momentum come Boxing Day.

 

The trouble is as well, and I think it is this: people's idea of a Christmas song now is John Lewis getting some wispy voiced thing with a really twee stage name no one has ever heard of and will never hear of again beyond the preceding January to do some emotive, minimalist cover of any old thing and watch it do the business because of some rubbish advert.

 

Wouldn't surprise me in the least bit if this year it's some girl called Rain with a stripped back cover of "Agadoo" set to scenes of a snowman looking morosely on at a party he's not invited to, only to be taken in by some kid who should know better.

 

Oooh, I've gone all Charlie Brooker on my ass.

 

Meow at that actual rant of mine a year later. Typical that the one year I rant about John Lewis' irritating method of singles being attached to their cloying adverts, the one for the 2016 advert flopped like a lead balloon.

 

I do think my point of a year ago still stands though: streaming is going to make it ever more difficult for a Christmas or Christmas-y themed song to get anywhere near #1. Mariah went top 10 last year, true, but it's probably shot its bolt where trying to be a Christmas number one this year is concerned.

 

Looking at it, Clean Bandit's 'Rockabye' got released end of October last year, and was Christmas number one all of eight weeks later. So in all honesty, any single that gets released towards the end of next month by one of the big likely names of this year's autumn release schedule - I am looking in particular at Taylor Swift, Sam Smith, and potentially Little Mix if they have something new to go soon - are going to be one of the ones most likely to get it this year.

 

Having said that, in light of the new 'million sellers' list being published by Official Charts today, James Masterton made a startling observation. The 'Various Artists' version of Lou Reed's 'Perfect Day' - the BBC Children in Need single from 1997 of course - is the only million seller on the list by virture of pure sales alone, as it's not currently available to stream or download (probably due to legal wranglings I'll be bound). As it's now 20 years since that single, I think the Beeb would be missing a trick not doing an updated version with the original 1997 version tacked onto its release. Mind, that awful 'God Only Knows' shambles they did a few years back to a spectacular flop springs to mind...

Mariah did get the streaming #1 last year on the chart published on 30 December 2016, she will probably do it again this year so it just depends how strong the #1 on sales is on streaming services over the festive period - usually the gift card week was enough to drown out the excessive Christmas streaming but that is rapidly dwindling away... (see below for the singles market in each 'gift card week' versus mean market size at the time). Note that there is a trend downwards in the increase in market size during gift card week which is I assume the practice becoming less popular..

 

One thing is for sure, she is unlikely to be the Christmas number one as the maximum streams often occur over Christmas and therefore count for the week after the Christmas chart.

 

Gift card week sales (Change versus 52-week average market size)

 

Xmas '16 30/12/2016: 2,045,026 (+34%)

Xmas '15 01/01/2016: 3,046,660 (+51%)

Xmas '14 28/12/2014: 3,751,126 (+42%)

Xmas '13 29/12/2013: 4,532,613 (+48%)

Xmas '12 30/12/2012: 5,696,413 (+65%)

Xmas '11 01/01/2012: 5,451,493 (+65%)

Xmas '10 02/01/2011: 4,757,430 (+59%)

Xmas '09 03/01/2010: 4,220,989 (+56%)

Edited September 20, 20177 yr by Doctor Blind

Meow at that actual rant of mine a year later. Typical that the one year I rant about John Lewis' irritating method of singles being attached to their cloying adverts, the one for the 2016 advert flopped like a lead balloon.

 

I do think my point of a year ago still stands though: streaming is going to make it ever more difficult for a Christmas or Christmas-y themed song to get anywhere near #1. Mariah went top 10 last year, true, but it's probably shot its bolt where trying to be a Christmas number one this year is concerned.

 

Looking at it, Clean Bandit's 'Rockabye' got released end of October last year, and was Christmas number one all of eight weeks later. So in all honesty, any single that gets released towards the end of next month by one of the big likely names of this year's autumn release schedule - I am looking in particular at Taylor Swift, Sam Smith, and potentially Little Mix if they have something new to go soon - are going to be one of the ones most likely to get it this year.

 

Having said that, in light of the new 'million sellers' list being published by Official Charts today, James Masterton made a startling observation. The 'Various Artists' version of Lou Reed's 'Perfect Day' - the BBC Children in Need single from 1997 of course - is the only million seller on the list by virture of pure sales alone, as it's not currently available to stream or download (probably due to legal wranglings I'll be bound). As it's now 20 years since that single, I think the Beeb would be missing a trick not doing an updated version with the original 1997 version tacked onto its release. Mind, that awful 'God Only Knows' shambles they did a few years back to a spectacular flop springs to mind...

 

I think that is changing with the new ACR rules as the average weeks of a song at no1 is showing now although we haven't had a Shape of Youesque hit to show this in a better way. I think an xmas track could still build through December given the right song!