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I think a lot hinges on who comes 4th, much like with Andy coming 4th and then presumably plenty of votes transferring to Jason. If Kim finishes 4th, it could be another thing to further push Jedward. But if it's either Coleen or James, then whoever stays of those two could pick up the "nice" vote.
Really hope Kim comes too 3. Voted for her last night! Think it's definitely going to be a top 2 of Jedward and James now though. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Nicola higher than people think and Coleen lower

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