Not here for these Switzerland predictions.

Always fun doing the first set of predictions. Probably wildly inaccurate, but here we go!

 

First Semi Final

 

07 Sweden

 

Wildly inaccurate you say? ;)

 

Mind you, there's been a bit of noise made about Sweden potentially flopping (relative to Swedish standards) but I totally don't see it. I think this will win the Semi.

Edited March 20, 20178 yr by ScottyEm

Wildly inaccurate you say? ;)

 

Mind you, there's been a bit of noise made about Sweden potentially flopping (relative to Swedish standards) but I totally don't see it. I think this will win the Semi.

I can't see it myself. Their lowest result since 2013 beckons if you ask me! Interested to hear his live vocals for the high notes as well, seeing as he barely sung any of them at Melfest!

I think Sweden will be low top ten in the final. It wasn't the favourite of the Swedish public and I doubt it will rake in huge televotes from across the continent either. It's a fantastic performance/staging, which will win it a lot of points, but the song itself is not exceptional. Take out the staging and it's a midtable type entry.

 

Still, the fact that they can get at least a midtable with a fairly standard Melodifestivalen winner makes me wonder what caused that floppy period of theirs between 2007-2010. So much effort into the national final and they came out with three low finishes and a DNQ!

 

I was talking to my girlfriend's Swedish friend when I was in Stockholm and she said the whole country was certain that Hero would win Eurovision 2008, right up until the results started coming in :lol: She said they often think there's a chance they might win/come top five but on this occation everybody was certain that they had it sewn up as soon as Hero won Melodifestivalen!

 

I don't know if they have the same blind faith in Robin...presumably not, it didn't cause much of a buzz as a winner really, most people in the crowd were pissed that Nano didn't win. I reckon that would have done even worse for them but we'll never know!

Very Early and subject to revision Semi Predictions

 

Country Total Points (Jury Points+Televote Points)

 

Semi One

 

01 Belgium 348 (182+166)

02 Sweden 248 (107+141)

03 Australia 195 (120+75)

04 Greece 173 (53+120)

05 Latvia 154 (65+89)

06 Iceland 139 (88+51)

07 Poland 132 (70+62)

08 Armenia 118 (58+60)

09 Montenegro 115 (30+85)

10 Azerbaijan 115 (46+69)

---

11 Georgia 114 (53+61)

12 Albania 113 (56+57)

13 Moldova 111 (45+66)

14 Portugal 106 (73+33)

15 Finland 102 (77+25)

16 Cyprus 76 (39+37)

17 Czech Republic 40 (37+3)

18 Slovenia 37 (19+18)

 

Obviously between 8th and 15th it's mega tight so not even my "100 points" hypothesis would be enough to nail on qualification here. To my mind that probably means Portugal and Finland are even more dead than I thought they were.

 

Semi Two

 

01 Israel 274 (140+134)

02 Romania 235 (55+180)

03 Serbia 196 (117+79)

04 Bulgaria 178 (94+84)

05 Estonia 174 (69+105)

06 Netherlands 172 (128+44)

07 Macedonia 170 (82+88)

08 Belarus 147 (66+81)

09 Denmark 145 (91+54)

10 Austria 114 (63+51)

---

11 Croatia 111 (62+49)

12 Lithuania 96 (39+57)

13 Switzerland 91 (52+39)

14 San Marino 87 (48+39)

15 Hungary 86 (40+46)

16 Russia 84 (25+59)

17 Norway 76(36+40)

18 Ireland 68 (39+29)

19 Malta 48 (30+18)

 

Israel is being very underrated for what to my mind is the strongest uptempo pop song in the second half performed by somebody who'se got proven form in nailing that kind of performance. Russia actually don't have anywhere near as many friends as they're used to in this semi and the jury is going to hate it so I'm ~reasonably~ confident that they're out at the present time.

Why Italy won't win Eurovision 2017, in just under 2400 words

I never had Italy as a contender when it first won for precisely the reason that it wasn't a convincing San Remo win. I think it's still quite likely to win in spite of all those reasons you listed because there's so little else.

 

Honestly the song besides it that sounds most like an all encompassing wide appeal + strength is France and that's still... in French. So it's got to be suffering from all the same problems as Italy only more likely to underperform.

 

What this is leading me towards is a shock win from something impeccably performed that we haven't latched onto yet. Or this is where Eurovision finally succumbs to trends and Bulgaria wins.

Great post Lex, but (and I'm prepared to get egg on my face here), sometimes things just just happen for no real rational reason, and I think an Italy landslide will be one of these, despite seeing a lot of truth and sense in a lot of the points you've mentioned.

 

It sort of reminds me of Doctor Blind's 350k sales prediction for Ed Sheeran's Divide first week...all very well thought out and based on fact, trends and informed calculations, yet he was still like 300k or more out (as I believed he would be) because sometimes you just can't ignore a hype train rolling out of the station, and this is what I think is happening with Italy here. Lena won in 2010 with a similar hype train, and from a similar position of not having the semi-final exposure.

 

Actually, the two biggest reasons I'd mark it out for possibly not winning are:

 

1) The language barrier - only one non English language song has won this century

2) His voice is actually not that commercial...I love the track but I think I'd truly love it ten times more if he didn't have such a gravelly voice

I've never thought Italy would be a runaway winner, I agree it will probably top the televote and finish slightly lower with juries. However bar an Australia-esque jury landslide I can't see it being an issue. A fascinating read though, I started to question myself!

 

If I was to choose their biggest contender, I'd also go for Bulgaria at this point in time. Kristian being just 17, very young-looking with an apparently very strong live voice will appeal to televoters. I also think Beautiful Mess could go the way of Sound of Silence when performed live, BNT have apparently made staging one of the top priorities when selecting their entry and I think Kristian will be able to give this a more obvious climax live just as Dami did - her studio version was over-repetitive and didn't allow her voice to deviate from the melody. Therefore that will appeal to juries.

 

Throw in a bit of diaspora support from both Bulgaria (BNT managed to activate them well last year with various articles encouraging them to vote etc) and Russia (Kristian was born in Moscow), particularly if Julia doesn't progress past the semi (see the Azerbaijan in 2011 benefiting from Turkey's elimination televoting-wise theory) then that could push him over the line.

 

If there's an entry that's going to do a Ukraine and finish solid 2nds in both votes while and Italy finishes 1st and 5th then at this stage I think Bulgaria.

Also, I'm really really willing Australia to underperform...I'm sure if Cyprus had turned up with that song I don't think anybody would be tipping it for the top ten.

 

It's just so very bland, though I'm mildly amused that the chorus melody is like a slowed down version of the verse melody in Blue's One Love :lol:

Edited March 21, 20178 yr by gooddelta

I'm surprised more people aren't predicting Australia to compeletly crash and burn, it's not like they have any built in loyalties around here and I'd say three years is sufficient time for the novelty to wear off with a less than stellar song.

 

In fact the only reason I don't think I'll be predicting it out is because I can't see much in semi 1 that'll replace it rather than something else.

I think Sweden will be low top ten in the final. It wasn't the favourite of the Swedish public and I doubt it will rake in huge televotes from across the continent either. It's a fantastic performance/staging, which will win it a lot of points, but the song itself is not exceptional. Take out the staging and it's a midtable type entry.

 

Still, the fact that they can get at least a midtable with a fairly standard Melodifestivalen winner makes me wonder what caused that floppy period of theirs between 2007-2010. So much effort into the national final and they came out with three low finishes and a DNQ!

 

I was talking to my girlfriend's Swedish friend when I was in Stockholm and she said the whole country was certain that Hero would win Eurovision 2008, right up until the results started coming in :lol: She said they often think there's a chance they might win/come top five but on this occation everybody was certain that they had it sewn up as soon as Hero won Melodifestivalen!

 

I don't know if they have the same blind faith in Robin...presumably not, it didn't cause much of a buzz as a winner really, most people in the crowd were pissed that Nano didn't win. I reckon that would have done even worse for them but we'll never know!

 

On reflection, the staging for "hero' did have a sort-of corporate feel to it. I don't think it was 'out there' enough to pull in the votes (but, that aside, it's a total guilty pleasure for me).

 

I get "I Can't Go On" is not not as monumental as "Euphoria" but the staging has such massive impact, it'll mask any ordinariness of the song. I just can't see it placing outside the top three especially in a relatively poor year. Italy, IMO will need to storm the televote to edge it. A tricky one to predict?

Edited March 21, 20178 yr by ScottyEm

On reflection, the staging for "hero' did have a sort-of corporate feel to it. I don't think it was 'out there' enough to pull in the votes (but, that aside, it's a total guilty pleasure for me).

 

I get "I Can't Go On" is not not as monumental as "Euphoria" but the staging has such massive impact, it'll mask any ordinariness of the song. I just can't see it placing outside the top three especially in a relatively poor year. Italy, IMO will need to storm the televote to edge it. A tricky one to predict?

 

Oh god yeah, the staging was an abomination, she looked like an alien and the whole blue/black/white thing was creepy. That said, I'm guessing it still wouldn't have done that much better even staged well, Shady Lady sort of did a similar thing in a much more effective way and stole all of Hero's votes (even though I prefer Hero to Shady Lady based on studio versions).

 

I guess it's hard to tell right now how much impact Robin's staging will have without knowing what everyone else will be doing at Eurovision, but yes at Melodifestivalen it certainly stood out hugely thanks to that. It elevated the song from a mid-table finalist to a winner and it could well elevate it from a mid-table Eurovision finisher to a safe top ten.

Great post Lex, but (and I'm prepared to get egg on my face here), sometimes things just just happen for no real rational reason, and I think an Italy landslide will be one of these, despite seeing a lot of truth and sense in a lot of the points you've mentioned.

 

It sort of reminds me of Doctor Blind's 350k sales prediction for Ed Sheeran's Divide first week...all very well thought out and based on fact, trends and informed calculations, yet he was still like 300k or more out (as I believed he would be) because sometimes you just can't ignore a hype train rolling out of the station, and this is what I think is happening with Italy here. Lena won in 2010 with a similar hype train, and from a similar position of not having the semi-final exposure.

 

Actually, the two biggest reasons I'd mark it out for possibly not winning are:

 

1) The language barrier - only one non English language song has won this century

2) His voice is actually not that commercial...I love the track but I think I'd truly love it ten times more if he didn't have such a gravelly voice

 

BIB - I couldn't disagree with you more. Everything happens for a reason. And one person's sales prediction doesn't disprove that (and even if it did, that's quantitative data rather than qualitative which is what music, language and feelings are). Yes there's a hype train but who's driving the hype train? Has that driver driven the hype train before and crashed it?

 

The Lena comparison is an interesting one but that was still, at it's core, a song about being in love with someone performed by a cutesy young girl, not a kitschy number by some guy pushing middle aged. Plus it's arguable that won more from context of being the last contemporary uptempo pop song performed near the end of the show than it charting in countries that weren't even competing that year. Hype isn't everything.

Also, I'm really really willing Australia to underperform...I'm sure if Cyprus had turned up with that song I don't think anybody would be tipping it for the top ten.

 

It's just so very bland, though I'm mildly amused that the chorus melody is like a slowed down version of the verse melody in Blue's One Love :lol:

 

Yes to this. Australia aren't on point this year, maybe they genuinely think this will suffice as a potential winner?!

 

Speaking of Cyprus, it seems to be just me who has this marked as a qualifier? Surprised at the muted response it's getting. It's not amazing, but easily good enough for the final?

It's certainly possible that Australia can finish low down. The song is nothing special at all, and like people have mentioned, they're only being highly predicted by people based upon the past couple of years. I remember in 2014 many people thought Italy and Azerbaijan were shoe-ins for top 10/15 (probably based on their performances from recent years), but both crashed in the final.

Oh also Australia's song is a really poor version of Bulgaria, so there's a chance Bulgaria will take many of its votes too...

I think the first point is a fair enough one to make. The second is to an extent, Belgium could win but live performance wise it's not as proven and I don't really think it will beat Rhythm Inside. Bulgaria, maybe. But I don't buy that Israel or Estonia are any more than fan w*** entries that are destined for mid table at best (the feeling I get of the general opinion is that Israel isn't quite as good as Golden Boy, and Estonia is basically Denmark 2010 but in 2017 so even more dated). Australia aren't winning with what is widely agreed to be their worst entry. For me, it's Sweden if not Italy, but it has the same 'problem' of not winning the televote in the national final and comes off a little cold like Russia did last year.

 

IMO, Italy topping the 2015 televote convincingly is proof enough that foreign language or auto-qualifier won't matter, I think it's just as catchy and instant as Lena was.

I think people are just being a bit salty about Australia because it came at a time when we really didn't need any more ballads but now the balance has evened out I think it's a perfectly capable ballad and I know Liam will disagree but to be able to win X Factor you do need to be at least mildly good at performing songs to a television audience. I do agree that the votes will either swing behind them or Bulgaria though, so they could well come about 13th on the televote but get dragged into the top 10 by the juries.

BIB - I couldn't disagree with you more. Everything happens for a reason. And one person's sales prediction doesn't disprove that (and even if it did, that's quantitative data rather than qualitative which is what music, language and feelings are). Yes there's a hype train but who's driving the hype train? Has that driver driven the hype train before and crashed it?

 

The Lena comparison is an interesting one but that was still, at it's core, a song about being in love with someone performed by a cutesy young girl, not a kitschy number by some guy pushing middle aged. Plus it's arguable that won more from context of being the last contemporary uptempo pop song performed near the end of the show than it charting in countries that weren't even competing that year. Hype isn't everything.

 

I know what you're saying but there are so many unexpected results in Eurovision. Things that rationalisation just can't seem to fully explain.

 

Like Marie N winning for Latvia in 2002 (not saying this just because I don't like it, but seriously, how did it win - was the striptease act really enough by itself for victory? - I've never met anybody who claims to love the track/nobody talked about it after the contest and it was forgotten in a heartbeat)...or Sognu/Rockefeller Street doing so terribly in 2011 or Molly in 2014...how were we all so wrong on these when they all should have rationally probably done the opposite to how they performed.

 

We can certainly make excuses in hindsight for all of these things happening...the vocals were underhwelming, the staging was wrong etc...but the performance and staging are crap on so many top five finishing entries too, so how do they get away with it where others can't?

 

And...going off on a tangent again...but I've still never got my head around Atomic Kitten going straight to #1 with Whole Again! How did that happen? Rationally, how does a song with no airplay or any sort of buzz from a floppy manufactured pop band on their last legs debut at #1? Sure, once it had the exposure of getting that #1 it blossomed into a 'classic' but how did it get to that position of getting to #1 in the first place?

 

I definitely don't believe that there is an easily explanatory reason behind everything, and that's reflected in Eurovision a lot imo.

Edited March 21, 20178 yr by gooddelta