Posted March 12, 20187 yr As isn't tradition, I bring you the predictions thread with this paragraph copied from last year with the required edits. I can't wait any longer just for Georgia to serve up something that is coming last anyway. • Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think the UK will come last’ to full predictions of everyone’s positions with points and justifications essays. • You will make some predictions that turn out to be wrong, that's the name of the game. The challenge will be to see if you can end up with comparatively less egg on your face than everyone else, just make sure you've thought through your bold assertions before you make them. • New information comes to light all the time between now and the live show so you can revise your predictions as often as you like (within reason though, obviously). • If you're Ryan and you say something completely correct despite Lex saying such a prediction is laughable like "Salvador will win the semi 1 televote" as early as April 4th 2017 then prepare to brag about this forevermore. BuzzJack, start predicting NOW!
March 12, 20187 yr Author These are VERY provisional as I'm aware I have an impossible 7:3 half split in semi 1 but I'm too tired now so will revisit these tomorrow and make a final version of this initial prediction. Semi Final 1 Overall - Televote - Jury Vote 01 01 05 Estonia // Elina Nechayeva - La Forza 02 06 01 Bulgaria // Equinox - Bones 03 03 04 Czech Republic // Mikolas Josef - Lie To Me 04 02 06 Israel // Netta - Toy 05 04 11 Cyprus // Eleni Foureira - Fuego 06 05 10 Armenia // Sevak Khanagyan - Qami 07 14 02 Belgium // Sennek - A Matter Of Time 08 09 07 Lithuania // Ieva Zasimauskaitė - When We're Old 09 07 12 Finland // Saara Aalto - Monsters 10 11 08 Albania // Eugent Bushpepa - Mall 11 10 09 Azerbaijan // Aisel - X My Heart 12 17 03 Austria // Cesár Sampson - Nobody But You 13 08 15 Greece // Yianna Terzi - Oneiro Mou 14 12 14 Belarus // Alekseev - Forever 15 16 13 Switzerland // Zibbz - Stones 16 15 16 Ireland // Ryan O'Shaughnessy - Together 17 13 19 Croatia // Franka - Crazy 18 18 17 F.Y.R. Macedonia // Eye Cue - Lost And Found 19 19 18 Iceland // Ari Ólafsson - Our Choice Semi Final 2 Overall - Televote - Jury Vote 01 02 01 Sweden // Benjamin Ingrosso - Dance You Off 02 03 02 Australia // Jessica Mauboy - We Got Love 03 01 05 Ukraine // Mélovin - Under The Ladder 04 06 03 The Netherlands // Waylon - Outlaw In 'Em 05 04 07 Norway // Alexander Rybak - That's How You Write A Song 06 05 08 Poland // Gromee ft. Lukas Meijer - Light Me Up 07 12 04 Malta // Christabelle - Taboo 08 07 10 Moldova // DoReDos - My Lucky Day 09 13 06 Latvia // Laura Rizzotto - Funny Girl 10 08 13 Russia // Julia Samoylova - I Won't Break 11 11 09 Denmark // Rasmussen - Higher Ground 12 09 12 Serbia // Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - Nova deca 13 10 11 Montenegro // Vanja Radovanović - Inje 14 14 14 Romania // The Humans - Goodbye 15 16 15 San Marino // Jessika ft. Jenifer Brening - Who We Are 16 15 17 Georgia // Iriao - Sheni gulistvis 17 18 16 Slovenia // Lea Sirk - Hvala, ne! 18 17 18 Hungary // AWS - Viszlát nyár
March 12, 20187 yr Author Surely semi-final one is the highest quality semi-final ever, it's impossible to rank them.
March 12, 20187 yr LMAO that paragrah really doesn't read well in hindsight at all, EEP! (another important lesson though, own any and all of your bad takes!) A few random/general thoughts I've been having about predictions at this point. - Semi One has somehow got a HUGE bloc of SE Europe + Balkans (Greece, Cyprus, Albania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Croatia and Armenia plus the diasporas in Austria & Switzerland) whilst there's precious little in the way of ex-Soviets which means that Belarus, Azerbaijan and Lithuania are all in very big trouble as their usual 'cushion' of friendily points isn't as big as it usually is. The flipside of that is that just by turning up Albania have probably got around about 50 televote points already. - You'd expect the flip side of that to mean that Russia are swimming in allies in Semi 2 but...they wierdly aren't. They've got Georgia, Moldova, Latvia (televote only since their jury is one of the noted "zero because it's russia" baltic states) and...Ukraine (HA!) and that's pretty much it. Given that it's probably not a jury magnet either, then they're also probably the most at risk of losing their 100% record as well. - That said I think the country most likely to lose their 100% qualification record this year is Romania, largely due to being garbage (If they don't qualify and Moldova does though, it'll be interesting to see if that diaspora vote moves over to Moldova in a big way though) - The ex-Yugo countries have really dropped the ball competitively this year and I don't think it's impossible than none of them will qualify once again. Should that happen, countries like Bulgaria and Albania may well reap the benefit of the ex-Yugo televotes that have to find a new home to go to in the final - Love him as I may, I disagree with my learned friend Ryan with the way he does his predictions at this stage because I think it's not so much about where you come position wise on each side as much as how may points you can get. As long as you can get around about 100 points then you'll probably be in the mix to qualify from the semis (and for what it's worth, in the final you're probably looking for something that can get about 500+ points combined to be in contention) and it's perfectly possible you can do an Anja Nissen and get pulled up into the top 10 despite coming 3rd last with the televote. That's kinda why I think Cyprus is a more safe qualifier than people are giving it credit for as whilst I think it's maybe only got 30 or so jury votes maximum, given the friendly company and it being the lone pop banger in the second half, I think it can easily get 80-100 televotes which is plenty enough to qualify. - Gun to my head, if I had to pick a winner that nobody's seen coming yet....Ukraine!
March 12, 20187 yr russia and ukraine are still kind of allies in the televoting (Russia's televote 10 went to Jamala after all) but juries will obviously have to put the opposite side in the bottom 5 otherwise... off with their head with bulgaria's song out this means all of my current Top 5 is in Semi 1 oops
March 13, 20187 yr russia and ukraine are still kind of allies in the televoting (Russia's televote 10 went to Jamala after all) but juries will obviously have to put the opposite side in the bottom 5 otherwise... off with their head with bulgaria's song out this means all of my current Top 5 is in Semi 1 oops For me it's my top 7 :lol:
March 13, 20187 yr Have I read that right: you're predicting Albania through... in the semi of death?
March 13, 20187 yr Yeah I think Lithuania and Albania's chances are slim at best. Greece, Austria and Azerbaijan I'd say have a far better chance of qualifying.
March 13, 20187 yr I would be GUTTED if this was the song to end Azerbaijan's 100% streak, it's one of my favourites of the year!
March 13, 20187 yr ETA: the percentages given below reflect how likely I think the countries of semi 1 are to qualify. Very Likely 100% Czech Republic 100% Estonia 90% Bulgaria 90% Israel 80% Belgium 80% Greece Somewhat Likely 70% Cyprus 70% Finland 60% Armenia Borderline 50% Austria 50% Azerbaijan 50% Croatia Somewhat Unlikely 40% FYR Macedonia 40% Belarus 30% Switzerland Very Unlikely 20% Lithuania 20% Ireland 10% Albania 0% Iceland Edited March 13, 20187 yr by jafetsigfinns
March 13, 20187 yr With all this Brexit business at the mo will the UK repeat it's 2003 achievement and get "nil" points...
March 13, 20187 yr Honestly, I don't really think you can call anything in Semi One a 100% certain qualifier. The closest to 100% certain would probably be Armenia but in the way where it's virtually guarunteed to come between 6th and 9th in the semi rather than be in the semi's top 3.
March 13, 20187 yr With all this Brexit business at the mo will the UK repeat it's 2003 achievement and get "nil" points... DRINK!
March 13, 20187 yr Honestly, I don't really think you can call anything in Semi One a 100% certain qualifier. The closest to 100% certain would probably be Armenia but in the way where it's virtually guarunteed to come between 6th and 9th in the semi rather than be in the semi's top 3. 100% as in I'm 100% sure they'll qualify :) these are my predictions after all so I can call them what I want lol. Edited March 13, 20187 yr by jafetsigfinns
March 13, 20187 yr Not gonna go as detailed as Ryan but I'd say something like: Semi 1 01 Estonia 02 Israel 03 Bulgaria 04 Czech Republic 05 Cyprus 06 Finland 07 Belgium 08 Armenia 09 Azerbaijan 10 Albania 11 Austria 12 Belarus 13 Greece 14 Macedonia (I WISH this was semi 2 :() 15 Ireland 16 Croatia 17 Lithuania 18 Switzerland 19 Iceland (surely this will appeal to a grand total of nobody) Semi 2 01 Sweden 02 Netherlands 03 Australia 04 Poland (I could easily see this being the modern chart ready song that does really well like Hey Mamma, on a lesser scale ofc) 05 Norway (probably higher but I'm being hopeful) 06 Ukraine 07 Russia 08 Malta 09 Denmark 10 Moldova 11 Montenegro 12 Latvia 13 Serbia 14 Georgia 15 Hungary 16 Slovenia (this SHOULD be top 5 at least in this poor semi but it screams bottom few in the semi) 17 Romania 18San Marino For the big 5 and Portugal: Italy will probably do about as well as Francesca Michielin, the message is powerful so if they can get it across with the staging as ofc many people won't understand Italian, perhaps a few places higher. Spain is probably my pick for a winner outside the obvious top few, especially if they have the same chemistry on stage come May and they kiss at the end or something. United Kingdom won't get above 10 points, and will probably finish last as such. France could be anywhere, like Italy it will depend on the staging being enough to complement the message. I'd say maybe around 15th. Germany is most probably a solid low top 10. Portugal I could see doing anything, from a solid top 10 to bottom few :lol: It's certainly their most modern offering so hopefully it works in their favour. Honestly, I don't really think you can call anything in Semi One a 100% certain qualifier. The closest to 100% certain would probably be Armenia but in the way where it's virtually guarunteed to come between 6th and 9th in the semi rather than be in the semi's top 3. With it being SUCH a bloodbath I could easily see something shocking happening, I wouldn't like to say who'd be the victim of a shock DNQ but I'd hope it's Bulgaria if one happens :lol: I could see Saara or Eleni perhaps ending up as low as 9th r 10th but I really doubt either would DNQ... It's gonna come down to the staging and running order perhaps more than ever!
March 13, 20187 yr I could kinda see Belgium being the song that slips through the cracks in 11th/12th despite the fans loving it like Blackbird in 2017.
March 13, 20187 yr Belgium could very easily do a Serbia 2017. Can we make a petition for Macedonia to be moved into semi 2 pls
March 13, 20187 yr With all this Brexit business at the mo will the UK repeat it's 2003 achievement and get "nil" points... Considering we got our best result in 6 years in the contest directly after the EU referendum, "all this Brexit business" will make no difference.
March 13, 20187 yr • If you're Ryan and you say something completely correct despite Lex saying such a prediction is laughable like "Salvador will win the semi 1 televote" as early as April 4th 2017 then prepare to brag about this forevermore This drag though!!
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