DanBet: Odds to win

 

(note; the overly big numbers in the bottom half are cos I'm trying to make it look like proper odds this time, the probability here all adds up to 104%)

 

6/1 farc · stockholm noir 'boy like a girl (feat. ofelia)'

8/1 hendinia · essy 'cry for me (extended version)'

10/1 varakë · hanne mjøen 'hell with you'

12/1 ultraviolenceland · lauren aquilina 'the knife'

12/1 altyr muunilinst · miss li 'the manual'

15/1 new lexico · emmi 'drum'

15/1 bøtanikkä · camille 'vuurwerk'

20/1 kylienips · yonaka 'call me a saint'

25/1 aesthetica · rebecca black 'personal'

30/1 fljótavík · hard feelings 'holding on too long'

30/1 st. burbia · maia wright 'break her heart'

35/1 ojnoj · peach prc 'josh'

40/1 sovarasma · promis3 'future funeral'

40/1 aeroche · chariot 'sky wheel'

50/1 persephonia · gupi 'what's known now'

60/1 holland-oats · kinder 'bus stop'

70/1 séyetana · sewerslvt 'jvnko still loves you'

80/1 arcodesia · lost in kiev 'insomnia'

90/1 quintessa · dj 89 'КУКЕР'

90/1 d'yermak'er · kučka 'drowning'

100/1 danæviia · gardenstate & gvn 'take me there'

100/1 jadakissnia · yung sherman 'i d c (evian christ remix)'

125/1 harmonica · caveboy 'obsessed'

125/1 fsr rontvia · self esteem 'i do this all the time'

150/1 caerfyrddia · madame monsieur 'cœurs abîmés'

175/1 cor lupus · vetta borne 'kissing strangers'

175/1 hushkanukia · mimoza 'young queen'

200/1 rolloland · electric youth 'modern fears (pilotpriest come true version)'

225/1 scherzland · isle of you 'fallback'

250/1 mosquetania · ruben 'running'

250/1 east rukahavian · riva taylor 'woman'

250/1 #00274e · real lies 'birds'

300/1 tartford · tungevaag 'young summer'

300/1 sandebörg · old swing 'bruised'

300/1 cumulonimbia · daniel bortz 'you can stay forever'

300/1 zanmatony · bentley rhythm ace 'bentley's gonna sort you out!'

300/1 land of dw · nto 'invisible (paul kalkbrenner remix)'

300/1 the actual republic of bellamia · bahari 'savage (feat. bia)'

300/1 lookylion · jowst & agnete 'barely breathing (feat. azzip)'

300/1 mulgracia · yellow claw 'drxgs (feat. sara fajira)'

300/1 terra avium · hunter as a horse 'the breaking of the shell'

If that came true that would be an incredible top 10

by the way I do expect at least one of the niche appeal entries will be top 10 (Aeroche, Persephonia, Seyetana, Arcodesia, Jadakissnia), just not entirely sure which and I don't see any of them winning, there definitely seem to be a lot of big appealing pop songs this time.

Odds for the final from RontBet:

 

3/1 farc · stockholm noir 'boy like a girl (feat. ofelia)'

6/1 new lexico · emmi 'drum'

6/1 altyr muunilinst · miss li 'the manual'

7/1 hendinia · essy 'cry for me (extended version)'

8/1 varakë · hanne mjøen 'hell with you'

---------------

10/1 aeroche · chariot 'sky wheel'

12/1 fljótavík · hard feelings 'holding on too long'

14/1 ultraviolenceland · lauren aquilina 'the knife'

15/1 st. burbia · maia wright 'break her heart'

15/1 sovarasma · promis3 'future funeral'

15/1 bøtanikkä · camille 'vuurwerk'

15/1 jadakissnia · yung sherman 'i d c (evian christ remix)'

15/1 kylienips · yonaka 'call me a saint'

15/1 d'yermak'er · kučka 'drowning'

16/1 fsr rontvia · self esteem 'i do this all the time'

16/1 aesthetica · rebecca black 'personal'

---------------

18/1 rolloland · electric youth 'modern fears (pilotpriest come true version)'

18/1 ojnoj · peach prc 'josh'

18/1 mosquetania · ruben 'running'

20/1 cumulonimbia · daniel bortz 'you can stay forever'

20/1 persephonia · gupi 'what's known now'

22/1 holland-oats · kinder 'bus stop'

22/1 danæviia · gardenstate & gvn 'take me there'

24/1 séyetana · sewerslvt 'jvnko still loves you'

24/1 cor lupus · vetta borne 'kissing strangers'

24/1 arcodesia · lost in kiev 'insomnia'

25/1 hushkanukia · mimoza 'young queen'

25/1 quintessa · dj 89 'КУКЕР'

27/1 harmonica · caveboy 'obsessed'

28/1 caerfyrddia · madame monsieur 'cœurs abîmés'

30/1 east rukahavian · riva taylor 'woman'

30/1 tartford · tungevaag 'young summer'

30/1 scherzland · isle of you 'fallback'

32/1 zanmatony · bentley rhythm ace 'bentley's gonna sort you out!'

32/1 the actual republic of bellamia · bahari 'savage (feat. bia)'

32/1 terra avium · hunter as a horse 'the breaking of the shell'

35/1 #00274e · real lies 'birds'

35/1 mulgracia · yellow claw 'drxgs (feat. sara fajira)'

35/1 land of dw · nto 'invisible (paul kalkbrenner remix)'

38/1 lookylion · jowst & agnete 'barely breathing (feat. azzip)'

38/1 sandebörg · old swing 'bruised'

 

The winner I'm sure will be one of the five above the line. farc does sound like the most obvious once again as it will have the most crossover potential and while this will inevitably be a pop-heavy month at the top end, the alt/indie/electronic/dance countries also have some great entries to pick from here, and I'm sure at least three will finish in the top ten.

rich *.*

I think East Rukahavian are being underpredicted, it really stands out in the final

I think East Rukahavian are being underpredicted, it really stands out in the final

 

Totally!

I really like it too, and I agree it should do well, but not win - although it would certainly be a refreshing winner! Very Kate Bush. It was a hard one to call as we really don’t get many entries like that and you can never tell if it’s the sort of thing that everyone likes in a ‘4 points’ sort of way, or if it’s going to also rack up lots of 18s from the crossover countries that sit in the middle of the pop and alt crowds.

 

At this point I’d revise it to 14/1, and also revise Ultraviolenceland to 7/1 while I’m here!

feels like Cumulonimbia is being underpredicted a bit too, wouldn't be surprised to see that top 10. Agree on East Rukahavian though, I could see it easily fitting in at least 15th.

 

as far as pop whispering purposes go, I feel like Ultraviolenceland could be the one to watch, less so Altyr and Farc, who I think will get more points from the alt pop bloc. Varake and St. Burbia will probably get a load of pop points. For the winner, I'm not sold on it obviously being Farc as the odds would have it, I think this is potentially rather open.

 

obviously really interested in where that list of entries Dan had as niche entries ends up, I feel they'll end up dotted around the top 20 with one ending up in the top 10 - Arcodesia if I had to pick.