Now that 2024 has rudely left us, let's see how my 2024 predictions held up -

 

- a General Election will be called for June 2024. Labour come out the biggest party with a majority, albeit a slim one that only just creeps over the 325 threshold. They have difficulty getting their 1st budget through, due to an “awkward squad” of 10 Corbynite and post-Corbynite who refuse to endorse Starmer, claiming he’s too “right wing”. The possibility of defections for this lot remains a strong possibility in 2024, due to Jeremy Corbyn remaining in parliament, Corbyn standing under the “Peace and Justice Party” banner. The budget eventually gets through due to a few concessions, as well as support from the Lib Dem’s and SNP on a ‘policy by policy’ basis. The Lib Dems have their best election in a generation and climb to the 3rd most seats in parliament, with the SNP reduced to single figures, mainly due to Labour winning a strong plurality of Scottish seats.

 

You didn't need to be Mystic Meg to predict that Labour would win the General Election, and I was right about the Lib Dems having their best election and coming third, the SNP being reduced to single figures, and Jeremy Corbyn remaining in parliament. I did underestimate the Labour landslide, and although I was right that there would be an "awkward squad" of Labour MPs, I didn't see Starmer suspending them to get them out of his hair.

 

- Neither Trump nor Biden will stand in 2024. Although SCOTUS declares that Trump can stand in all 50 states, the confusion leads to the only other main contender, Nikki Haley, winning the nomination. Although Biden faces calls to stand down, he does not do so until he is forced to, at which point it is too late to run a full primary, meaning that vice president Kamala Harris becomes the default candidate for the Democrats. Thanks to independent candidate Robert Kennedy pulling just enough votes away from Harris in swing states, Nikki Haley becomes the first female person of colour to be US president.

 

I was right that Biden would leave it too late to stand down with Kamala becoming the default candidate, that the Republicans would win, and that (in a roundabout way) Robert Kennedy would help. I was dead wrong about Donald Trump being the Republican candidate & winner though.

 

 

- the NI Assembly gets back up and running in September, after PM Starmer sets in motion legislation that would lead to an Assembly Election if it is not restored by the end of that month.

 

The Assembly came back in February without the need for fresh elections, long before Starmer came to power.

 

- the 2024 EU elections sees a very sharp rise in extremist parties all across the European block, and this new voting rump leads the EU to bring in a border policy so extreme that it would even make Suella Braveman blush. As a result, we see strong left-wing backlash to the EU (although crucially, not until the Tories are out of power), and it puts the brakes on Labour calling for an effort to rejoin the EU. (Although somewhat hypocritically, Starmer does flirt with the idea of holding asylum seekers offshore to be processed in 2024, although this comes to nothing).

The extreme right did make gains in EU elections, and border polices have become tougher in mainland Europe. The political pole-reversal for UK membership of the EU didn't happen in 2024 to any real extent, but I still think its something to look out for.

 

- even though Labour expressed support for PR in their manifesto, it doesn’t form part of their plan for government, as their politicians know what side their bread is buttered on.

 

Nothing on PR yet.

 

- the Greens lose their only MP.

Yeah, can't spin this one. Got it dead wrong.

 

- Kemi Badenoch becomes Tory leader, and leads the party to parity with Labour in opinion polls. At least 1 Labour Party member temporarily loses the whip in the year for remarks about Badenoch that are perceived to be racist against her.

 

I was right that Kemi would become Tory leader, and a handful of opinion polls from November onwards have shown the Tories leading Labour. No Labour party members lost the whip for attacking Kemi Badenoch (although Dawn Butler came close).

 

Probably the biggest political thing I didn't predict for 2024 was the rise of Reform UK, outpolling the Lib Dems in votes & Farage getting into parliament for the first time, which I put down to underestimating how catastrophically bad the Tories would do in the election. Although I imagine I wasn't the only one who wrote RUK off.

What political based predictions do you have for the year upcoming?

 

Plenty of elections to look forward to, including the American, British and Putin's coronation march. Many things about these, like the date of the UK election, remain to be confirmed. How many by-elections, scandals, legal challenges etc do you see coming trure in 2024?

 

My outside prediction is that the election is actually in summer (like 2017 but a little later), while the Tories plan for an autumn election, they're roundly humiliated for not calling it in May as everyone expects and finally facing their obliteration as reality, they go while it's still warm enough for everyone to not be completely pissed off at them - doesn't work though.

 

 

For America, I do feel that legal action against Trump being able to run will dominate the primary season, but I feel we will emerge with a rematch inevitably, with Biden blowing out Trump eventually in the general in part because of court cases being upheld (and the controversial position of some states not having a Republican on the ballot, with perhaps Trump getting around that by putting his VP as the main nominee and electors promising their votes from that state to Trump if won, that seems like the exact sort of legal f***ery that the current SCOTUS would accept as being fine and dandy)

 

anyway that seems like the standard direction of things - could be changed with an unexpected event.

 

Labour I'm predicting a seat total of somewhere between 360 to 420, it's not going to be close and we will see the largest new influx of MPs in Parliament likely for a generation, it'll be somewhat of a shallow lead just like the Con 2019 one but it'll be enough to pass Labour's agenda, whatever that may be on any given day.

 

Pretty accurate on UK politics for the few predictions I dipped my toes into actually, woefully bad at America.