Brett-Butler

Luckily if there’s one country that we’re likely to get wholly truthful information from on current situation, it’s Russia.

Digger is now expecting to be a flop according to projections, so it may not even compete for the #1 slot even with Verity likely to take a King’s Ransom.

This is the best advert of the decade. I laugh every time it comes on.

As an aside, my brother once worked on the audit of a football team (not Man City, thank the Lord). He said that as part of his audit testing, he had to test the intangible assets, which for a football team is the contracts of the players that have been purchased for cash. His testing to see if their values should be impaired included speaking to the physio to see if there were any long-term injuries that would impede the player's future career. Yes, think there'll be heads rolling at BDO after this (something I would not necessarily be sad about, for petty, personal reasons). They'd already been fined over a million for a poor audit of a different company, so this isn't going to help them in the long run.

Alonso and Stroll staying with Aston Martin for another year. The owner of Aston Martin must like Lance Stroll for some reason.

Oh dear, if they get fined, where will *checks notes* the United Arab Emirates find the money to pay it?

It didn't even have a fire exit!

Very few spaces left for potential rookies in 2027 then. Think the only potential spaces would be Haas (I think Ocon will leave with Rafael Camara the likely replacement), and a spot at Aston Martin if Alonso does retire (although not sure who the likely replacement would be, they could forgo a rookie and give it to Tsunoda).

It’s a Facebook ad rather than a TV ad, but this ad for the AA seems a little bit inappropriate -

Andy Burnham didn't run in the General Election in 2024, yet is now leading the party that was elected under a manifesto he didn't stand for, and many of his current policy goals could go against what was written in that manifesto. If he doesn't go to the country by the end of the year, I can see his popularity & Labour's tanking come the start of 2027, and a Tory majority becomes realistic by 2029. If he goes to the country this year, he undoubtedly will lose seats, and possibly may have to govern with a Lib Dem minority government, but I think he'll judge it to be worth it if he can cripple the Tories for a generation and destroy Reform for good. Plus he can frame it as doing what the Tories were too cowardly to do in the last parliament by going to the country after changing Prime Minister.

The candidates for the Holborn & St Pancras by-election have been announced. They are the following - Sagal Abdi-Wali - Labour Barmy Brunch - Monster Raving Loony Ewan Cameron - Conservative Tom Darwood - Independent Clare Fischer - Climate George Galloway - Workers Party Tyler Johnson - Restore Briony Kapoor - Rejoin EU Peter Newman - Reform Ketankumar Pipaliya - UK Voice Zack Polanski - Green Jonathan Silberman - Communist League Helen Spiby-Vann - CPA Patrick Spillman - Liberal Democrats Ben Walker - UKIP The surprise package on the list is George Galloway, who'll be taking time away from his exile in Russia to stand in this by-election. His proven record at piling up votes among Muslim populations could be crucial to who wins this election. He's not going to win, but the winner could depend on whether he takes more votes away from Labour or the Green Party. In terms of the other parties standing, there's a whole smorgasbord to appeal to everyone across the political spectrum, from the Communist League on one side to the still surprisingly ongoing UKIP on the other. Of the less known parties, the Climate Party position themselves as a centre-right environmental party, the CPA are an evangelical Christian party, UK Voice have stood in many by-elections and position themselves as a centrist alternative to all the main political parties, whilst the motivation of the party known as Rejoin EU remains a mystery. The downright laugh-a-minute hilarious Count Binface declined to stand. The Brett-Butler Prognosticator 4000 predicts that this will be a decent win for the Labour Party. They've selected a decent local candidate with experience at a local level, and I can't see Polanski winning this one. The undercard of this election will be an interesting one to look out for. Whilst I can't see either of them come close to winning, whoever gets more votes between the Conservatives and Reform UK will be able to control the narrative as to which party of the right has the momentum with them. If it's the Tories, which is what I predict, it will demonstrate that the Badenoch Bounce is real, and that Reform's controversies have hit is right where it hurts. And if Labour do win this by-election (which I think they will), then I can see Andy Burnham calling a General Election before the end of the year. I can see some parallels with the 2017 Stoke-on-Trent by-election, when a still strong UKIP put their leader (Paul Nuttall) up in a winnable seat and lost, with Theresa May calling a GE not long afterwards in the belief that her main rival was wouldn't (which was correct, but still backfired). The Greens have been losing momentum since Burnham took over, and their leader not winning this by-election, coupled with stories of issues in the Green Party behind the scenes would give Burnham the confidence to go to the polls to seek a mandate he sorely lacks. It also means that he can see off the threat from the right at the key moment - Reform are currently against the ropes with no hope of getting anywhere near a majority; the Conservatives are currently rising but are at least nine months off being the undisputed leader on the right and a real threat to Labour; if he goes to the polls in this sweet spot he could wound that side of the spectrum for a decade at least, however if he doesn't go this year he runs the risk of entering Brown town a la 2007-2010.

Zach Polanski has been selected as the Green’s candidate. If he loses (which at the moment is quite likely), then I can see the Greens’ support begin to dry up. Labour have selected Sagal Abdi-Wali, a Camden councillor and Somalian-born refugee. I’m predicting a Labour win on this one.

Feels we’re entering a fallow period for film at the moment. Not sure how a Practical Magic sequel will do, I didn’t think that people were clambering for more of that. I’ll be interested to see if the Oasis documentary gets bums on seats.

The Holborn & St Pancras by-election will take place on October 8. Interestingly, it looks like Zack Polanski has competition for the Green Party nomination for this constituency, with a local councillor putting his hat in the ring as well -

In 2003, Channel 5 made a TV film starring Hugh Bonneville called "Hear the Silence", which purported to be based on real events about a doctor, who was fighting against corrupt government and medical officials who were trying to stop his important research into paediatric treatment for children being released. A brave man standing along against a corrupt system. It's a common film trope, so what's the problem? The "Doctor"? He was Andrew Wakefield, the doctor responsible for the discredited idea that the MMR vaccine causes autism. It was bad enough Channel 5 producing producing pro-Wakefield propaganda, but it coming out when the link was already pretty discredited was just wrong. Don't think it'll ever be repeated, understandably.